企业社会责任与和谐劳动关系构建

结合以SA8000标准为代表的企业社会责任运动,本文将企业的成本收益纳入分析框架,通过动态最优化博弈模型考察SA8000是否有利于改善我国转型期较紧张的企业劳动关系。研究表明,在其他条件不变的情况下,我国企业缺乏改善劳动关系的动力;SA8000的影响力、国外企业的劳动关系投入等与改善劳动关系呈正相关,而通过SA8000认证的费用与其负相关;企业利润与改善劳动关系之间并非绝对的不相容,在保证企业利润的前提下,SA8000有利于改善我国企业劳动关系。     

通胀、通胀预期和货币政策——基于中国2001—2010年数据的实证研究

文章用两种方法测度了我国通胀预期：（1）未来物价预期指数衡量通胀预期;（2）ARMA模型对通胀的预测值。并计量分析了影响通胀预期的因素,结果显示：CPI上升、正产出缺口增加和广义货币供应量增加,是形成通胀预期的主要因素。利率、人民币汇率和食品价格对通胀预期的形成作用不显著和影响较小。因此,存款准备金率动态微调,是目前管理好通胀预期的最好选择。     

区域可持续发展的动态衡量与评价

本文通过对国内外可持续发展衡量方法进行简单评价 ,认为现有的衡量与评价方法主要是一种静态的方法 ,难以反映可持续发展的动态特征。本文提出了一种动态的衡量方法 ,并进行了实际的应用。     

大学生综合素质测评体系理论及应用研究

当前高校都树立了教学、服务和管理三位一体的素质教育目标,因此建立一个符合时代要求的大学生素质测评体系尤为关键。要想对大学生素质有客观准确的测评,就需要科学的测评指标选择,并且赋予各指标适当的权重。为了满足21世纪社会对人才新要求,高校应该从过去的素质测评体系中汲取经验,充分适应时代的新要求,构建适合素质教育的新的大学生素质测评体系。     

The spatial and temporal variation in passenger service rate and its impact on train dwell time: A time-series clustering approach using dynamic time warping

This study aims to improve the understanding of the underlying mechanism of passenger boarding and alighting processes, as well as its potential influence on train dwell time and train operation. Empirical data collected from one of busiest metro stations in Seoul, Korea, demonstrates the spatial and temporal variation in the passenger service rate, as a result of interference between boarding, alighting, and standing passengers. This study postulates that the level of interference can be associated with the train car occupancy and the proximity of train door to entry points, as waiting passengers tend to cluster near the platform entries. A unique temporal service rate curve is derived from each door location. We introduce Dynamic Time Warping for similarity assessment and clustering. It revealed four groups of train doors showing distinct shapes of curve from each platform. The first cluster includes the train doors located closest to the platform entry points where the initial service rate is drastically impeded by severe inference among passengers. The level of interference gradually diminishes as the door is located farther away from the entry points, but the overall service rate decreases as well. A passenger service time model is derived to include the cluster variable. To test its significance, the prediction capability of the model is presented with and without the cluster variable. The results of this study may be used to guide waiting passengers along the platform to minimize interference and to avoid serious disruption during passenger service time.     

宽松的环境政策能吸引更多的外商直接投资吗——基于中国工业省级面板数据的分析

利用我国1997~2009年的工业省级面板数据和动态面板GMM估计方法,考察了相对宽松的环境政策是否是吸引FDI的主要原因。研究发现,环境政策较宽松的地区能够吸引更多的外资流入,但这种影响并不大,所以,以降低环境标准、牺牲环境为代价来吸引FDI不是明智之举;与东、中部地区相比,西部在吸引FDI上处于明显劣势,这在一定程度上加剧了我国经济结构的失衡。     

基于动态贝叶斯网络的邻近下穿隧道深基坑施工风险分析

为了减小邻近既有下穿隧道深基坑施工风险及灾害损失,科学预防施工安全事故,提出了一种基于动态贝叶斯网络（DBN）的深基坑施工风险分析模型。首先,运用BWM（best worst method）确定准则的权重;其次,基于关联规则挖掘风险因素间的相互关系,并以此构建DBN结构模型;最后,以新建厦门北站地下一层社会连廊深基坑工程为例,对提出的方法进行有效性和适用性检验。结果表明：基坑围护结构的安全度在静态被评为“较高”和“极高”的概率分别为34.6%和36.1%,且此结果随着输入风险证据发生动态变化,运用反向推理也能迅速找出围护桩渗水风险;提出的模型能明确邻近既有下穿隧道深基坑施工风险传递过程中的关键风险点,并能进行动态风险预测以及事故后致因诊断,从而实现邻近既有下穿隧道深基坑施工风险的动态管控。所提出的优化DBN模型对工前风险评估、先验分析和风险诊断有较好的适用性和较高的准确性,可为邻近既有隧道深基坑施工过程中的安全管控提供有效的决策支持,大幅提高风险控制效率。     

Macroeconomic Policy Design in the European Monetary Union: A Numerical Game Approach

Optimal economic reactions of European policy-makers on exogenous shocks are determined by simulating a global macroeconomic model under different institutional arrangements. In particular, it is investigated whether discretionary or rule-based policies and whether non-cooperative or cooperative policies for Europe result in a better performance as measured by intertemporal objective functions. The results show that the answers to these questions depend strongly on the nature of the shock to which European economies are exposed. For a negative supply shock, rule-based policies dominate, whereas for a negative demand shock, cooperative fiscal policy-making within the European Monetary Union gives the best results.     

Does the use of imported intermediates increase productivity? Plant-level evidence

This paper examines whether importing intermediate goods improves plant performance. While addressing the issue of simultaneous productivity shocks and decisions to import intermediates, we estimate the impact foreign intermediates have on plants' productivity using plant-level Chilean manufacturing panel data. Across different estimators, we find evidence that becoming an importer of foreign intermediates improves productivity.     

黑龙江省国有林区森林资源动态变化及影响因素分析

通过搜集1976—2005年黑龙江省森林资源的连续清查数据,分析了近30年来森工林区国有森林资源动态变化状况,并在归纳总结大量国内外学者所认同的影响森林资源变化的因素理论基础之上,结合黑龙江省的实际情况选取了有林地面积、人均国民生产总值、受灾森林面积、营林投资、天然林保护工程等对森林资源变化有显著影响的科学合理的指标,继而运用回归模型进行定量分析,并提出保持森林资源可持续增长应采取的对策。