我国地震巨灾期权定价机制研究

我国是全球地震频发、损失最为严重的国家之一,但金融业在地震巨灾风险保障中却一直没有发挥应有的作用,我国地震巨灾期权发展严重滞后。因此,必须构建我国地震巨灾期权定价模型。同时,在应对地震巨灾的金融体系构建与创新的过程中,特别是在推进地震巨灾期权进行风险管理的过程中,需要进一步健全地震巨灾期权发展的外部保障体系,发展和完善我国金融市场和金融机构,加速地震巨灾期权的研发力度,改进和强化地震巨灾期权市场的监管体系。     

灾后重建与中国金融制度完善

汶川大地震是对中国金融体系的适应性与支撑能力的检验.在震后恢复重建中,不仅要快速恢复金融体系的运行能力,还要以新视角完善和创新可持续发展的金融体系,形成金融业与区域经济结构之间和谐发展的局面,建立与当前农村经济发展水平相适应的政策性金融,构建风险补偿和运行保障机制,创新金融服务工具,进一步提升金融业从业人员的综合素质.这不仅是在灾区重建中需要解决的问题,也是完善中国金融制度需要思考的问题.     

物理知识应用教学的探索与实践

物理知识应用教学是对长期不变的传统物理教学模式进行改革的新的尝试.它在教学内容、教学方法等方面更具有新意,并对激发学生学习兴趣、培养学生分析问题、利用物理知识解决实际问题能力,启迪学生创造性等方面大有益处.     

Challenges and opportunities for pre-crisis emergency risk communication: lessons learned from the earthquake community

Abstract

Prior to the 2009?L’Aquila event, earthquake forecasting and early warning research focused specifically on earthquakes as the crisis events. Although this is still true, the manslaughter convictions of six earthquake scientists and one public official for failed risk communication in 2009 served as a catalyst for expanding these goals to also intentionally examine the challenges of communicating earthquake risk with non-scientific during the pre-crisis stage of the earthquake lifecycle. The Crisis Emergency Risk Communication (CERC) Model developed by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) provides specific guidelines for doing so. Thus, based on a thematic analysis of interviews with 21 earthquake scientists, this study identifies what those responsible for communicating regularly about earthquake risk see as major communication challenges and the extent to which the CERC model recommendations are useful for addressing them. Results suggest that earthquake risk science communicators are most effective when they translate scientific and technical information simply, respond to competing messages, capitalize on relevant popular culture references, employ risk communication campaigns during ‘quiet periods’, and acknowledge uncertainty. These findings have implications not only for earthquake science risk communicators, but also for expanding the pre-crisis stage best practices proposed in the Crisis Emergency Risk Communication (CERC) model. Essentially, this study reveals that soliciting and responding to feedback in the pre-crisis stage could help spokespersons clarify or correct any messages that are perceived by audiences as unclear or are simply not accurate. Doing so may improve risk communication effectiveness not only during the pre-crisis stage but also throughout the earthquake crisis lifecycle.     

地震灾后土地利用应急规划与管理研究述评

地震地质灾害的不确定性造成人民生命财产的重大损失,因此,防灾减灾应当纳入土地利用安全的重要考虑,成为土地资源管理目标之一.在公共管理学基础上,研究尝试将公共危机管理和土地资源管理相结合,通过系统梳理国内外在应急管理、应急规划及相关领域的研究进展,指出在土地学科领域开展应急体系建设的必要性和紧迫性.通过研究对象的遴选,命题地震灾后土地利用应急规划研究,旨在构建土地利用应急规划体系,探讨灾害发生后如何集中有限资源,最大程度减少震害损失,快速优化配置恢复重建用地、评估建设用地抗震适宜性及安排防灾需求用地等.     

基于日本地震背景下某公司供应风险评估

今年3月的日本大地震震断了全球产业链,暴露了供应链的脆弱性。特别是由于我国是日本汽车零部件的进口大国,此次地震必将对我国的汽车制造业造成影响。本文将以此为背景,以某汽车制造公司为例,通过观察其地震发生后一系列连锁反应,以供应风险为研究对象,建立供应风险的评价指标体系,并模糊综合评价法评价供应风险的大小。国内专门针对供应风险的研究尚属空白,因此本文的研究将在一定程度上弥补这方面的不足。     

What Skills Are Needed to be a Humanitarian Logistician?

Logistic skills are of importance for employment and career development, and prior research has highlighted differences in skill requirements for different logistics functions as well as for different groups of logisticians. However, the continuing incidence of natural disasters and complex emergencies and their associated challenges including the requirement to build relationships with diverse stakeholders, has increased the demand for humanitarian logisticians—but there is, as yet, little understanding of which skills are important in this context. This article develops a conceptual framework for skills in the field of humanitarian logistics, and evaluates the framework through a content analysis of job advertisements with a special focus on the 2010 Haiti earthquake. This analysis concludes that humanitarian logisticians need a broad spectrum of functional skills (such as procurement, and warehouse and transport management) that must often be held in some depth. In addition, however, humanitarian logisticians need “contextual” skills that reflect their particular field of employment (such as security management and a comprehensive knowledge of donor regulations). It is suggested that such contextual skills are likely to feature in other areas of logistic employment, and that further research to identify these would lead to improvements in training and education programs.     

论砖混结构抗震

砖混结构是我国传统的建筑结构,在我国各类建筑中占有十分重要的位置。文章结合实例,提出了多层砖混结构抗震设计建议。     

What explains the recent fluctuations in Japan’s output? A structural factor analysis of Japan’s industrial production

By applying the structural factor analysis developed by Foerster et al. (2011), we decompose the fluctuations of Japan’s industrial production (IP) into sectoral shocks and aggregate shocks, taking input–output relationships between sectors into account. Our results show that, except for the global financial crisis period, sectoral shocks explain, on an average, nearly half of the quarterly variations in Japan’s IP. Although the relative importance of sectoral shocks declined during the global financial crisis period, it increased again in the recent post-crisis period and, at this time, it contributes to the increased volatility of Japan’s IP. Specifically, our analysis suggests that the intersectoral spillovers brought about by disruptions of supply chain networks in the wake of the Great East Japan Earthquake, the declines in domestic production (or production capacity) in some sectors, as a result of a deterioration in global competitiveness, and a shift to overseas production have contributed to the recent increase in fluctuations of Japan’s IP.     

东日本大地震对石化工业产生的影响和启迪

介绍了东日本大地震对地震灾区石油化工装置造成的严重损毁、对日本炼油及石化中下游产业和国际贸易的影响,以及对全球能源市场的影响。结合东日本大地震给我国石化产业发展带来的启示,建议我国的石化产业要适当调整发展规划,提高石化工业的核心技术和关键设备的自给能力,优化产业布局、强化工程建设项目的审批和风险分析,培养一支有过硬心理素质和事故处理能力的队伍。