论我国五金产品如何开拓东欧市场

过去我国五金产品出口一向依赖于美国、日本市场,而近几年来东欧国家尤以俄罗斯为首与中国贸易往来激增。考虑到市场风险分散和着眼于庞大的未来市场商机,东欧市场无疑是我国企业在世界范围开展商务活动新的机遇。如何做好我国的五金产品在东欧的市场开拓工作显得举足轻重。本文旨在通过对我国五金产品进行SWOT即优势、劣势、机遇和威胁分析,对照先前的出口方式与目前的市场体制得出较为适宜的我国五金产品开拓东欧市场的对策。     

欧盟新成员国会不会发生区域性货币危机——与1997年东南亚的比较分析

当前中东欧地区的欧盟新成员国已经深爱金融危机的影响,通过与1997年东南亚国家汇率制度的比较可以发现.欧盟新成员国发生区域性货币危机的可能性较小,但部分国家的汇率制度在防范货币危机方面处于被动地位.在经常账户方面,欧盟新成员国的贸易赤字主要集中在欧盟内部,经常账户引发货币危机的可能性同样较小.从这两方面来看,中东欧的欧盟新成员国不会发生区域性货币危机,但需要欧盟给予强有力的外部支持.     

我国东部沿海经济发达地区农村城镇化道路初探

我国东部沿海地区的农村虽经济发达 ,但趋于分散 ,在一定程度上制约着其小康化、现代化建设。可尝试走一条将部分分散的村有计划、有选择的有机合并 ,形成以农业人口为主的小城镇的可持续发展之路。本文着重探究村与村或村与镇合并的可行性、意义及其原则。     

Together we stand,divided we fall? Smallholders' access to political power and their place in Poland's agricultural system

It has long been recognized that agrarian transformation can be seen as an outcome of struggles between politically influential interest groups. At the same time, numerous theoretical arguments suggest that small‐scale farmers are politically weak. Smallholders are commonly believed to comprise a particularly vulnerable group, which has only little influence on the pace and the direction of the ongoing restructuring. One may wonder, however, whether smallholders are able to affect the paths of agrarian development once they solve collective action problem and attain political office. In this paper, we try to improve our understanding in this respect by analysing smallholders in Poland. Our findings suggest that in municipalities in which smallholders had access to political offices, the rate of smallholders' exits from farming was significantly lower than elsewhere.     

MANAGING LOCAL PUBLIC DEBT IN TRANSITION COUNTRIES: AN ISSUE OF SELF-CONTROL

One and a half decades after the end of a centralised regime in Central and Eastern Europe, the policy literature on local debt management in transition economies reveals that there is a general confusion about the appropriate use of debt finance at the municipal level. The literature is mainly concerned with institutional borrowing restrictions and sanctions against excessive debt. Both emphasise the responsibility of the centre and consider local government unable to pursue a sound financial management without central patronage. Breaking with the traditional focus on budget  discipline , this study advocates budget  responsibility . Favourable credit ratings and compliance with legal norms are necessary but not sufficient conditions for municipalities to borrow. Successful financial management requires a more proactive attitude in which local governments adjust their investment policy to their financial capacity, assessing the costs and benefits of each investment project.     

21世纪新浪潮与世界经济新趋势

本文阐述一条新的发展道路——东方之道。西方文明的衰落预示“世界中心的转移”,而投机浪潮的高涨则引发当代“看东方”的新趋势。90年代以来 ,赌场资本主义的弊病日益加剧 ,美国“新经济”的“泡沫相”日益突出 ,反对美国型“经济全球化”的呼声日益高昂。紧随全球化浪潮而来的将是银色浪潮和绿色浪潮 ,它将根本改变思维方式和生活方式 ,并使世界面貌大为改观。最后 ,本文提出大开发、大融合、大发展战略的若干思路     

Environmental Liability and Privatization in Central and Eastern Europe: Toward an Optimal Policy

It has been estimated that the costs of remediating contaminated sites in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will be very high. These contingent environmental liabilities have emerged precisely at the time CEE countries are attempting to privatize their capital stocks, creating major challenges for privatization agencies. It is also generally agreed that an inadequate handling of these liabilities in the past has reduced sales of state-owned enterprises in Central and Eastern Europe.This paper uses an analytical model to identify optimal policies for minimizing the damage to privatization processes from environmental liabilities. Policy simulations are conducted which evaluate the effects of the use of liability indemnifications and environmental audits on privatization sales, prices and government revenues net of environmental costs. The major finding of the paper is that goals to mitigate the effects of environmental liability on privatizations and maximize government net revenues from privatization sales require equivalent environmental liability policies. Both goals require optimal provision of information and indemnifications to investors, and moreover it is found that the two policies are complementary rather than substitutes.     

Unobserved components in an error-correction model of consumption for Southern European countries

In this paper we show how the potential misspecification of the consumption function can be ameliorated by approximating any unmodelled long run variation with an unobserved component in the form of a time-varying trend. This methodology is applied to Greek, Portuguese and Spanish consumption functions during the post-second World war period. The empirical evidence suggests that there are many determinants of long-run consumption in these countries, in addition to income and inflation, and these unobserved long-run effects are captured by a nonstationary stochastic component. The long-run elasticity of consumption with regards to the unobserved component is greater than unity in all countries. First version received: January 1999/Final version received: June 2000     

Religion and economic growth: was Weber right?

Evidence of falling wages in Catholic cities and rising wages in Protestant cities between 1500 and 1750, during the spread of literacy in the vernacular, is inconsistent with most theoretical models of economic growth. In The Protestant Ethic, Weber suggested an alternative explanation based on culture. Here, a theoretical model confirms that a small change in the subjective cost of cooperating with strangers can generate a profound transformation in trading networks. In explaining urban growth in early-modern Europe, specifications compatible with human-capital versions of the neoclassical model and endogenous-growth theory are rejected in favor of a “small-world” formulation based on the Weber thesis.