新一轮税制改革面临的挑战与现实选择

中国经济正面临着知识经济、经济全球化、可持续发展、通货紧缩、追求收入公平分配等方面的严峻挑战。制定税收制度必须以经济转轨时期的经济改革为背景,以广税基、低税率、少优惠、强征管为目标,进一步深化我国的税制改革。     

国际银行业监管标准嬗变途径分析

国际银行业监管标准从旧协议向新资本协议嬗变途径中有两个交叉方向的变化——监管性的资本与经济性的资本、基于规则的监管与面向过程的监管。虽然新协议中保留了一些监管性和规则性的资本监管因素,就象在旧协议中也吸收了经济性和过程性方法的要素一样,但是新协议中监管方式的转变仍然是实质性的和很重要的,并且是同时发生在两方面的转变。     

Economic Risk Factors and Commercial Real Estate Returns

A great deal of research has focused on the links between stock and bond market returns and macroeconomic events such as fluctuations in interest rates, inflation rates, and industrial production. Although the comovements of real estate and other asset prices suggests that these same systematic risk factors are likely to be priced in real estate markets, no study has formally addressed this issue. This study identifies the growth rate in real per capita consumption, the real T-bill rate, the term structure of interest rates, and unexpected inflation as fundamental drivers or state variables that systematically affect real estate returns. The finding of a consistently significant risk premium on consumption has important ramifications for the vast literature that has examined the (risk-adjusted) performance of real estate, for it suggests that prior findings of significant abnormal returns (either positive or negative) that have ignored consumption are potentially biased by an omitted variables problem. The results also have important implications for dynamic asset allocation strategies that involve the predictability of real estate returns using economic data.     

经济增长在险水平、条件波动性与经济增长态势研究

经济增长在险水平（GaR）和条件标准差（CSD）能够有效地度量国家经济风险波动的单向性和双向性。利用动态时窗和条件异方差模型，我们发现我国国家经济风险与经济周期波动密切相关，目前的国家风险状态已经体现出明显的稳定性。利用协整关系检验，我们发现我国国家经济风险与经济增长水平之间存在正相关的长期均衡关系，因此采取积极经济政策的“反周期”干预，所诱发的适度经济波动将有且经济快速稳定增长。     

Inequality, Crime and Economic Growth. A Classical Argument for Distributional Equality

This paper studies the dynamic general-equilibrium interactions between inequality, crime and economic growth by embedding the rational choice-theoretical approach to criminal behavior in a heterogeneous-agents endogenous-growth OLG model. Based on their respective opportunity costs, individuals choose to specialize in either legal or criminal activities. While legal households contribute to aggregate goods supply over time by either working or building human capital, criminals make a living by expropriating legal citizens of part of the latter's income. An increase in inequality lowers the economy's growth rate and possesses negative welfare effects for all agents with endowments equal to or above average and for agents with endowment below average that are born sufficiently far in the future.     

Capital mobility,wage bargaining,and social insurance policies in an economic union

In a two-country model with mobile capital we analyse decentralized social insurance policies. These policies are a compromise between the preferences of workers and capital owners. Due to wage bargaining, worker-based social insurance contributions are borne by capital owners. These contributions affect the profitability of investment, and consequently the direction and size of capital flows. Countries will take account of these effects in determining social insurance policy. Noncooperative decision making results in tax competition and an underprovision of social insurance. In addition, increasing economic integration, represented by increasing capital mobility, could imply a divergence of social insurance levels in the two countries.     

科学发展观和新自由主义发展观的论争

在我国的经济国理论界和社会公理论学界，如何科学发展，和谐发展，已经成为关注和讨论的热门话题。目前，中众争辩的问题，不是要不要改革，而是改革的方向之争，是坚持社会主义市场经济的改革方向，还是资本主义市场经济的改革方向，实质上是围绕科学发展观和新自由主义发展观之间的争论。科学发展观有三个含义即全面发展、协调发展和可持续发展，比较突出的有四个亮点。     

中国的经济增长、需求约束与税收结构

在我国目前的经济增长中,出现了投资需求过热而消费需求不足的结构性失衡状况。为此,可以把税收结构引入汉森-萨缪尔森模型,来研究税收结构对投资和消费的影响。通过实证研究发现,在税收结构中,流转税(间接税)比重的增加对投资增长有激励作用,而对边际消费倾向没有显著影响;所得税和其他税(代表了直接税)比重的增加,有利于抑制投资和过快的经济增长,相反,可以提高边际消费倾向,从而促进消费。     

WTO环境下贸易摩擦及中国对策

经济全球化趋势的不断加强,世界各国经济交往愈加紧密。由于经济发展不平衡及利益不一致,国家之间贸易摩擦日趋激烈。入世以来,中国与其他国家贸易摩擦频繁发生,已经成为中国对外开放中面临的重大问题。为保证中国外贸出口持续发展,必须在深入研究贸易摩擦产生的背景、发展趋势及其特点的基础上,以增强自身实力为根本,通过采取完善贸易救济体系、加快制度调整和创新、加强技术认证工作、扩大内需等措施,为我国外贸发展创造良好的外部环境。     

市场制度的价值取向与经济结构的市场调整

本文试图说明,在现有的生产技术条件下,市场制度应体现什么样的价值取向,才能通过市场调整出合理的经济结构。文中通过模型对中国经济的产业结构、所有制结构以及产业结构和所有制结构之间的互动影响进行实证分析,发现从产业结构或所有制结构单方面地对经济结构进行调整,都无法使经济结构达到一种合理的状态。并且通过市场调整经济结构时,市场制度的价值取向将起到关键的作用。比较分析不同的市场制度价值取向下市场对经济结构的调整发现,只有当经济中形成一种国有经济不与民(资本和劳动)争利的制度环境,并且制度的价值取向侧重于保护资本利益,但同时兼顾劳动利益时,市场才能调整出合理的经济结构。