基于ADL与ECM模型的出口供给弹性分析

以中国2005年7月到2010年6月间的数据为依托,基于动态模型实证对中国出口供给是否具有无限价格弹性进行研究后发现:中国出口供给的长期价格弹性为1.85;出口价格、产出能力、国内价格水平以及生产成本对出口供给的影响均存在滞后效应,其中产出能力对出口供给的影响最大。     

On estimating Armington elasticities for Japan's meat imports

By fully accounting for the distinct tariff regimes levied on imported meat, we estimate substitution elasticities of Japan's two-stage import aggregation functions for beef, chicken and pork. Although the regression analysis crucially depends on the price that consumers face, the post-tariff price of imported meat depends not only on ad valorem duties but also on tariff rate quotas and gate price system regimes. The effective tariff rate is consequently evaluated by utilising monthly transaction data. To address potential endogeneity problems, we apply exchange rates that we believe to be independent of the demand shocks for imported meat. The panel nature of the data allows us to retrieve the first-stage aggregates via time dummy variables, free of demand shocks, to be used as part of the explanatory variable and as an instrument in the second-stage regression.     

我国城镇居民商品需求价格弹性的估计

通过将消费率变量引入到弗里希的需求价格弹性估计方法中,经过数理推导,获得了需求价格弹性估计的方程组。研究发现:就需求自价格弹性而言,商品需求受自身价格的影响程度最大,而受其他商品价格的影响程度较小。随着收入组等级提高,商品需求对其价格变化的反映更为敏感。就需求交叉价格弹性而言,食品价格对其他商品的影响程度最大。随着收入等级提高,食品价格对其他商品的影响程度不断下降。     

周期性失业与宏观财政政策的就业效应

通过对失业进行分解,利用菲利普斯曲线间接地估算自然失业率,研究表明中国实际失业率的变动趋势与自然失业率的变动趋势基本一致,且两者之间具有明显的阶段性。采用格兰杰因果检验和协整回归模型对财政政策变量与就业变量进行的计量分析结果表明:就业增长的确引致了政府投资的增加,但政府投资对就业的影响率并不是很高即政府投资存在逆就业倾向;虽然中国政府投资支出与就业量增长具有相同的变动趋势,但政府支出拉动就业的成本要远高于民间投资拉动就业的成本。因此,必须同时着眼于周期性失业和自然失业此两种不同成因的失业,一方面适时调整财政政策宏观调控的目标,另一方面进一步培育和完善劳动力市场机制以降低经济活动成本,才能够有针对性地制定和实施治理失业的措施。     

基础设施资本对经济增长贡献的研究进展--生产函数法综述

在影响经济增长的各种因素中,基础设施资本是一个重要的因素.本文在简单回顾基础设施资本与经济增长关系的理论研究发展历史的基础上,对国际上有关基础设施资本影响经济增长(总产出)的效应的研究文献进行了回顾,重点对生产函数法在研究中的应用进行了综述.本文分为3个部分.1、引言;2、生产函数法的应用研究;3、总结和评价.     

Incorporating price elasticity in financial forecasting models: From theory to practice and implementation

The authors use a capital budgeting example to show students how to incorporate price elasticity into financial analysis as an application of what students learn in their microeconomics course. They present simple as well as more advanced price-quantity relationships, and using various “what-if” scenarios; the authors show how risk analysis can be used to improve revenue projections and valuation models. A project analysis example is employed to illustrate results for negative predictive value and IRR based on three models of price elasticities across a range of potential product pricing. Students are then encouraged to replicate and create similar models, helping them improve their vital Excel and financial modeling skills.     

The end of the flat tax experiment in Slovakia: An evaluation using behavioural microsimulation in a dynamic macroeconomic framework

The paper introduces a new way of linking microsimulation models with dynamic general equilibrium frameworks to obtain an evaluation of the impact of detailed tax and benefit measures on the aggregate economy. In the approach presented in this paper, income heterogeneity interacts with the macro-economy via aggregated individual labour supply decisions which influence, and are influenced by, the dynamic evolution of the real wage rate. The method involves a reduced-form representation of the information flow between the macroeconomic and microeconomic blocks. The practical usefulness of the approach is demonstrated by evaluating actual and hypothetical tax reforms that involve abandoning the flat tax system in Slovakia. A hypothetical move to a highly progressive tax structure is shown to generate some employment gains but is associated with a drop in aggregate income and tax revenue.     

Is health care a necessity or a luxury? Evidence from urban China

This article uses a smooth transition regression (STR) model to research the income elasticity of the health care expenditure of China’s urban residents in the 1990–2013 period. The results demonstrate that if the real income of China’s urban residents that lags a period is taken as a transition variable, urban residents’ health expenditure follows an LSTR1 nonlinear two-regime model. Here, the income elasticity of health care expenditure of China’s urban residents is 1.4919 in 1990–2002 and 1.2216 in 2003–2013. Overall, the income elasticity of health care of China’s urban residents is greater than 1, indicating that health care is a luxury.     

要素结构与技术进步方向——来自中国城市“撤县设区”的证据

本文基于1997—2010年267个地级及以上城市市辖区面板数据，运用标准化供给面系统方法测算了市级层面的技术进步方向，并借助“撤县设区”这一自然实验，利用工具变量法实证检验了要素结构变动对技术进步方向的影响，研究发现：（1)“撤县设区”使得资本—劳动比上升，进而导致技术进步方向偏向于资本，符合偏向型技术进步的“弱诱导偏向型假说”；（2)“撤县设区”对资本偏向型技术进步的影响是有条件的，主要限于资本—劳动替代弹性大于1即资本—劳动呈替代关系的地区；（3)相比于中西部地区，东部地区资本要素更为丰富，因而“撤县设区”显著提高了东部地区的资本—劳动比，使其技术进步方向偏向资本。     

The income elasticity gap and its implications for economic growth and tourism development: the Balearic vs the Canary Islands

ABSTRACT

The Balearic and the Canary Islands are two well-known tourism-led economies. They both experienced a tourism boom during the same decades, and, hence, they developed a similar productive-mix. Nevertheless, there are strong economic differences between the two regions. While the Balearic Islands enjoy a high GDP per capita, the Canary Islands show a more modest performance. The results of a panel data regression confirm our hypothesis that they differ substantially in terms of income elasticity of tourism. It is two times higher in the Balearic Islands than in the Canaries, which indicates the first is perceived as a more luxurious destination. Furthermore, the results of a dynamic computable general equilibrium model show that the Canaries would converge in GDP per capita with the Balearic Islands if they attracted tourists with a similar profile as the latter.