新兴电子商务背景下在线用户的体验及影响分析

信息技术的发展推动了电子商务模式的不断创新,有效的客户体验成为拓展商务空间的重要内容。本文首先分析了新兴电子商务的表现形式,以及客户在此背景下的体验表现,然后对用户体验中的困扰和障碍进行分析并提出了应对策略。     

Consolidation, scale economies and technological change in Japanese banking

The paper examines the technological structure of the Japanese banking sector before the onset of the banking crisis and structural reforms of the 1990s in order to shade light on the logic of the recent trend to consolidation in the industry. While diseconomies of scale are shown to be pervasive in the large banks, defying the rationale for consolidation, the paper presents evidence of an underlying technological progress that operates to significantly increase the industry's efficient minimum size, generating economies at larger banks, thus justifying the ongoing trend in consolidation. The results suggest that, to the extent that consumers can benefit from lower costs of bank production, policies that promote a more concentrated banking structure might be consistent with public interest.     

Stock Market Returns and Economic Fundamentals in an Emerging Market: The Case of Korea

This paper investigates the feedback relationship between stock market returnsand economic fundamentals in an emerging market. Starting from an intertemporalconsumption-based CAPM (CCAPM), we obtain a restricted VAR model for stockreturns and macroeconomic variables. We then apply this model to Korea and findstatistically significant departures from the restrictions implied by CCAPM.Consequently, an unrestricted VAR model is used to analyze the variations of expectedand unexpected returns in the Korean stock market. It is shown that the expectedmarket returns vary with a set of macroeconomic variables, and that thepredictable component is substantial. Reflecting richer dynamics in the data,relative to the usual single equation modeling in the literature, the estimatedVAR model shows considerable predictive ability for both real economic activityand real returns. Using the model for a variance decomposition of unexpectedreturns, we find that, although we cannot directly observe the market's revisionof expected future dividend growth, we can estimate a large part of therevision with the news in the expected industry output growth from our VAR model.Finally, we also find that economic fundamentals can explain only a smallportion of the variation in unexpected returns in the Korean stock market.     

Modeling Time-Varying Volatility and Expected Returns: Evidence from the GCC and MENA Regions

The aim of this study is to investigate empirically the underlying nexus of stock market returns and volatility in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region by using the GARCH-M model. We find that volatility is time-varying in all countries, which indicates substantial variation in the degree of risk across time. However, we do not find empirical support that this time-varying volatility significantly explains expected returns, except in the case of Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, and the MENA region portfolio. Our findings show that stock return volatility is negatively correlated with stock returns in these three markets under the assumption of investor risk aversion. This lends some support to the hypothesis of a volatility-driven negative relationship in the literature. The policy implications of our results are discussed.     

Measuring and decomposing agricultural productivity and profitability change*

Profitability change can be decomposed into the product of a total factor productivity (TFP) index and an index measuring changes in relative prices. Many TFP indexes can be further decomposed into measures of technical change, technical efficiency change, scale efficiency change and mix efficiency change. The class of indexes that can be decomposed in this way includes the Fisher, Törnqvist and Hicks–Moorsteen TFP indexes but not the Malmquist TFP index of Caves, Christensen and Diewert (1982). This paper develops data envelopment analysis methodology for computing and decomposing the Hicks–Moorsteen index. The empirical feasibility of the methodology is demonstrated using country‐level agricultural data covering the period 1970–2001. The paper explains why relatively small countries tend to be the most productive, and why favourable movements in relative prices tend to simultaneously increase net returns and decrease productivity. Australia appears to have experienced this relative price effect since at least 1970. Thus, if Australia is a price‐taker in output and input markets, Australian agricultural policy‐makers should not be overly concerned about the estimated 15 per cent decline in agricultural productivity that has taken place over the last three decades.     

Technological Change and Economies of Scale in U.S. Poultry Processing

This article uses a unique data set provided by the Census Bureau and a translog cost function to empirically examine technological change in the U.S. poultry industry. Results reveal substantial scale economies that show no evidence of diminishing with plant size and that are much greater than those realized in cattle and hog slaughter. Findings suggest that consolidation is likely to continue, particularly if demand growth diminishes, and that controlling for plant product mix is critical to accurate cost estimates.     

Predictability of Emerging Market Local Currency Bond Risk Premia

This article investigates the source of predictability of emerging market (EM) local currency bond risk premia by using a dynamic factor approach based on a large panel of economic and financial time series. We find strong predictable variation in EM local currency excess bond returns that is associated with macroeconomic activity. We provide evidence that the main predictor variables are the factors based on real economic activity that are highly correlated with measures of industrial and manufacturing production; however, factors based on global financial factors also contain information about the future local currency bond returns. The predictive power of the extracted factors is both statistically significant and economically important. Our research has important implications for policymakers and pension fund managers.     

Where can capabilities come from? network ties and capability acquisition in business groups

While strategy researchers have devoted considerable attention to the role of firm‐specific capabilities in the pursuit of competitive advantage, less attention has been directed at how firms obtain these capabilities from outside their boundaries. In this study, we examine how firms' multiplex network ties in business groups represent one important source of capability acquisition. Our focus allows us to go beyond the traditional focus on network structure and offer a novel contingency model that specifies how different types of network ties (e.g., buyer‐supplier, equity, and director), individually and in complementary combination, will differentially affect the process of R&D capability acquisition. We also offer an original analysis of how other aspects of network structure (i.e., network density) in business groups affect the efficacy of network ties on R&D capability. Empirically, we provide an original contribution to the capabilities literature by utilizing a stochastic frontier estimation to rigorously measure firm capabilities, and we demonstrate the value of this approach using longitudinal data on business groups in emerging economies. We close by discussing the implications of our supportive results for future research on firm capabilities, organizational networks, and business groups. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Real currency appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand

The Balassa-Samuelson effect is often seen as the prime explanation of the continuous real appreciation of Central and East European (CEE) transition countries' currencies against their western counterparts. A simple model shows that productivity shocks work not only through a Balassa-type supply channel but also through an investment demand channel. Therefore, empirical evidence apparently in favour of Balassa-Samuelson effects may require a re-interpretation. The model is estimated for a panel of CEE countries. The results are consistent with the model palusibly explain the observed real appreciation and support the existence of the proposed investment demand channel. JEL no. F31, F41, C33 The paper represents the author's personal opinions and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Deutsche Bundesbank.     

A Consulting Giant; a Disgruntled Client: A ‘Failed’ Attempt to Change Management Controls in a Public Sector Organisation

There has been very little research into management consulting interventions in public sector organisations, especially in emerging economies. This paper aims to fill this void by narrating the empirics of a consulting assignment carried out by a large international consulting firm in a Pakistani public sector organisation. The study found that consultants’ recommendations of ‘businesslike’ management controls, such as a modern performance measurement system and a ‘state‐of‐the‐art’ information system, were rejected outright by the client management. Employing a critical realist perspective that focuses on the structural conditions facing both the client and the consultants, and on the strategies adopted by both parties, the study aims to explain the empirics of the case. Through structural and strategic analysis, this paper aims to enhance our understanding of the dynamics of management consulting in public sector organisations, especially in emerging economies.