Cross-border exchanges and volatility forecasting

We test for the performance of a series of volatility forecasting models (GARCH 1,1; EGARCH 1,1; CGARCH) in the context of several indices from the two oldest cross-border exchanges (Euronext; OMX). Our findings overall indicate that the EGARCH (1,1) model outperforms the other two, both before and after the outbreak of the global financial crisis. Controlling for the presence of feedback traders, the accuracy of the EGARCH (1,1) model is not affected, something further confirmed for both the pre and post crisis periods. Overall, ARCH effects can be found in the Euronext and OMX indices, with our results further indicating the presence of significant positive feedback trading in several of our tests.     

Economic Implications of Alternative Allocation Schemes for Emission Allowances*

For reasons of political feasibility, emission trading systems may have to rely on free initial allocation of emission allowances in order to ameliorate adverse production and employment effects in dirty industries. Against the background of an emerging European‐wide emission trading system, we examine the trade‐off between such compensation and economic efficiency under output‐based and emissions‐based allocation rules. We show that the emissions‐based allocation rule is more costly than the output‐based rule in terms of maintaining output and employment in energy‐intensive industries. When the international allowance price increases, the inferiority of emissions‐based allocation vis‐à‐vis output‐based allocation becomes more pronounced, as emission subsidies drastically restrict efficiency gains from international trade in emission allowances.     

Trader Anonymity, Price Formation and Liquidity

Using data from the Frankfurt Stock Exchange we analyze priceformation and liquidity in a non-anonymous environment withsimilarities to the floor of the NYSE. Our main hypothesis isthat the non-anonymity allows the specialist to assess the probabilitythat a trader trades on the basis of private information. Heuses this knowledge to price discriminate. This can be achievedby quoting a large spread and granting price improvement totraders deemed uninformed. Consistent with our hypothesis wefind that price improvement reflects lower adverse selectioncosts but does not lead to a reduction in the specialist's profit.Further, the quote adjustment following transactions at thequoted bid or ask price is more pronounced than the quote adjustmentafter transactions at prices inside the spread. Our resultsindicate that anonymity comes at the cost of higher adverseselection risk. JEL Classification: G10.     

Trader Anonymity, Price Formation and Liquidity

Using data from the Frankfurt Stock Exchange we analyze price formationand liquidity in a non-anonymous environment with similarities to thefloor of the NYSE. Our main hypothesis is that the non-anonymity allows the specialist to assess the probability that atrader trades on the basis of private information. He uses this knowledgeto price discriminate. This can be achieved by quoting a large spread and granting price improvement to traders deemed uninformed.Consistent with our hypothesis we find that price improvement reflects loweradverse selection costs but does not lead to a reduction in the specialist's profit. Further, the quote adjustmentfollowing transactions at the quoted bid or ask price is more pronounced than the quote adjustment aftertransactions at prices inside the spread. Our results indicate that anonymity comes at the cost ofhigher adverse selection risk.     

Option Trading and the Intervalling Effect Bias in Beta

Prior studies show that the beta coefficient of a security changes systematically as the length of measurement interval is varied. This phenomenon, which is called the intervalling effect bias in beta, has been attributed to the friction in the trading system that causes the delays in the price-adjustment process. This study shows that option listing is associated with a decline in the beta intervalling effect bias. The decline is most pronounced for small firms. We also find that our sample firms grow significantly after option listing. Since prior research indicates that market value is a major determinant of the magnitude of the intervalling effect, we re-examine our results using a subsample that controls for market value. The results indicate that the decline in the beta bias from the pre-listing to post-listing period is still prevalent after we control for the change in firm size. Overall, the evidence is consistent with the notion that option trading reduces the delays in the price-adjustment process, which in turn reduces the intervalling effect bias in beta.     

网上证券交易的国际比较和借鉴

网上证券交易是全球证券经纪业务发展的一大趋势，而我国在这方面尚处于初步发展阶段，文章主要阐述借鉴其他国家在网上证券交易的相关做法，结合我国现状提出对发展我国网上证券业务的建议。     

Information–driven trading at the Prague Stock Exchange: Evidence from Intra–Day Data

Many observers argue that informed and insider trading is widespread in the emerging financial markets of transition countries, yet rigorous treatment of this issue has been virtually non–existent. The current paper estimates the extent of informed trading on the Prague Stock Exchange (PSE) using intra–day transaction data. Our estimates confirm that the average share of informed trading is equal to 0.32, which is high relative to developed markets and varies considerably among stocks. Using the Easley et al. (1996) approach on the very best segment of the PSE we obtained a high average probability of informed trading. Since data used in this study cover the period after the major attempts to improve market regulations, our results indicate that the PSE needs further strengthening to recover credibility and to become a real source of corporate financing. JEL classification: G14, G15.     

证券投资基金“老鼠仓”问题研究

所谓"老鼠仓"是指庄家在用公有资金拉升股价之前,先用自己个人的资金在低位建仓,待用公有资金拉升到高位后个人仓位率先卖出获利.它实质上是利用内幕信息进行违规的利益输送问题,是一种损害证券投资基金持有人利益的不道德行为.主要针对"老鼠仓"形成的原因进行了分析,并提出构建"老鼠仓"防火墙的对策措施.     

Trade-offs in sulfur emission trading in Europe

How to implement emission trading is one question in the current negotiations on a new sulfur protocol in Europe. Whereas the current protocol stipulates a 30 percent uniform reduction, national emission ceilings included in the proposed new protocol imply differentiated reductions. In addition, emission and fuel standards are proposed. This paper examines the costs and environmental impacts of emission trading. Emission trading combined with regulations is a new element in the paper. Calculations using the RAINS (Regional Acidification INformation and Simulation) model suggest that overlaying emission trading on regulations not only reduces the cost savings but has beneficial impacts as well: ecosystem protection is not changed and significant decreases in environmental benefits for countries are largely avoided. Emission trading can also be used to decrease emissions and increase ecosystem protection. If combined with existing legislation, emission trading minimizes losses in expected environmental benefits for some countries, and most countries gain. However, the initial distribution of emission ceilings has to be used so that some countries are not confronted with higher costs. Trade-offs appear to exist between the use of emission trading to achieve cost savings on the one hand, and ecosystem protection and distributional equity on the other.     

企业推广排污权交易的可行性研究

排污权交易(Ernission trading)是一种基于市场(Market-based)的环境政策。本文坚持以科学的发展观，来研究经济发展与环境保护的协调关系，目的是实现环境资源和环境容量的可持续利用。本文分析了企业的排污行为决策，并将环境资源和环境容量的稀缺性纳入排污权交易价格之中。通过价格这个经济杠杆去调节人们对环境资源和环境容量的利用，反映于企业为其排污行为所作的选择，进而论述企业推进排污权交易的可行性。