Neglected and overemphasized risks: the opinions of risk professionals

Research on risks has mainly been devoted to detailed analyses of such risks that are subject to public debate and policy decision making. However, many if not most of the risks that are now the subject of regulation were once neglected. Experts in conjunction with regulators have a crucial role in putting risks on the policy agenda. But what views do experts have on the matter of attention to risks? In order to answer this question risk assessment experts were asked to list the risks they considered to be over‐emphasized, respectively neglected. Radiation risks constituted the largest category of risks reported to be over‐emphasized. Other risks often reported to be over‐emphasized included BSE, GMOs, amalgam, and air traffic. Lifestyle risks were the largest category of risks reported to be neglected. Other risks often listed as neglected included radon (as an exception within the radiation category), road traffic, socio‐economic risks, energy production excluding nuclear power, and local accidents (including fires and workplace accidents). Risks mentioned about equally often as neglected and over‐emphasized included chemicals and crime. There was a correlation between perceived risk and neglect: risks considered to be neglected were also judged as larger. For a comparison, the topics of articles in the journal Risk Analysis from 1991–2000 were categorized into the same risk categories that were used for the questionnaire. The risks most commonly treated in the journal (chemicals and cancer) coincided with the risks which experts in our survey considered to be overemphasized rather than neglected.     

Towards a configuration of socially responsible human resource management policies and practices: findings from an academic consensus

Abstract

The integration of socially responsible behaviour has become a strategic priority for companies in recent years. Academic contributions that merge the fields of corporate social responsibility (CSR) and human resource management (HRM) have been expanding, demonstrating a broad sweep of benefits reflected in greater levels of commitment, motivation, and performance by employees. However, little has been clarified about what academics and business management understand to be a configuration of socially responsible human resource management (SR-HRM) practices. This paper aims to define and provide an initial academic approximation of a set of socially responsible human resource practices. In order to accomplish this objective, a content analysis was conducted based on a review of the literature, CSR reports, and international CSR standards such as the Global Reporting Initiative and ISO 26000. The theoretical findings were supported by a panel of experts who inspected them over three rounds of reviews. The sample for the study was created by consulting the academic literature, strengthened by the input from the panel of experts. The results show an academic consensus of 80%, and support the existence of a valid configuration of 8 socially responsible human resource policies divided into 32 practices.     

Formulating research policy on expert advice

National Research Assessments represent the principal policy used by countries with public university systems to improve the quality of their universities׳ research. They typically employ expert panels of local academics to assess journal quality, and use such assessments to reward publications. We propose a model of how experts assess quality and test this model using data from the recent Australian assessment. Controlling for objective quality, we show that experts׳ cognitive biases dominate their assessments. Consequently, such assessments exaggerate the quality of the experts׳ research and understate that of their colleagues. Our model can explain 95% of the variation in assessments.     

科技专家评审质量评价模型实证研究

针对科技主管部门面临的科技专家评审质量不高、监管机制缺失等问题,通过信息化手段实现专家管理的高效化、智能化、规范化.研究确立以科技专家基本素质、工作态度、专业程度及指导水平4个维度为主体框架的评审质量评价指标体系,开展基于神经网络算法的专家评审质量评价模型的构建.通过对比经验评价数据与神经网络评价预测值间的误差,验证基于神经网络算法的专家评审质量评价模型的高精准性,为客观、科学、智能、规范评价科技专家评审质量提供一种可行路径.     

固化专家经验,传承专业“家谱”

为了让专家经验在企业发展过程中起到更有效、更长远的作用,文中利用知识管理理论,提出了具体的措施以实现隐性知识显性化,将专家经验固化下来,实现专家经验的传承。最后提出了方案实施的制度保证。     

Inconsistencies Across Three Contextual Meanings of Reliability

The purpose of this article is to assess the nature of reliability and its inconsistent definitions across three contextual (conceptual, measurement and statistical) levels under the traditional true score theory. Due to such inconsistencies, two existing quantitative approaches (using r and covariance) are not uniformly understood in Psychology and other disciplines; consequently, their applications to measurements and testings are limited to ambiguous interpretations at the conceptual and measurement levels. To examine the extent of this problem, a questionnaire including various contextual definitions and interpretations of reliability in the literature was distributed in a nationwide survey. Results from six groups of experts representing editors, professors and advanced graduate students in both quantitative and clinical areas indicate that all subject groups generally agreed that a reliable instrument possesses the characteristics of the repeatability of responses of all test-takers at the conceptual level, and the reproducibility of the instrument with little or no variations from the underlying true scores at the measurement level. However, between the editors and noneditors, the endorsements of the common definition at the measurement level show obvious discrepancies. Further, at the statistical level, significant differences were found not only between but also within subject-groups in their interpretations of product-moment correlations and Alpha coefficients for the assessment of reliability at the conceptual and measurement levels. The causes of such inconsistencies were discussed in terms of the inherent limitations of the two statistical approaches used and their insufficiencies for indexing the conceptual and measurement meanings of reliability. Finally, this paper called for developing new statistical indices that are coherent with conceptual and measurement definitions. Before such development, the capacities of existing reliability indices shall be redefined and their application qualifications shall be proportionally re-established for educational, research and clinical purposes.     

2006年国内浓硝酸市场分析

本文从国内外角度分析了浓硝酸的供需情况、市场消费情况,同时分析了国内浓硝酸价格及进出口情况.     

Preference aggregation under uncertainty: Savage vs. Pareto

Following Mongin [J. Econ. Theory 66 (1995) 313; J. Math. Econ. 29 (1998) 331], we study social aggregation of subjective expected utility preferences in a Savage framework. We argue that each of Savage's P3 and P4 are incompatible with the strong Pareto property. A representation theorem for social preferences satisfying Pareto indifference and conforming to the state-dependent expected utility model is provided.     

Russian experts: missing actors of the budget process

Abstract

This article provides an examination of the role of experts in the Russian budget process. Experts are those whose role is based on specialised knowledge and technical skills, rather than affiliation to an agency, association or political party. Ideally their contributions are impartial. In the first part of the article the channels of expert influence are described, primarily within the executive branch. Features are found in these channels that mean that impartial advice is not always guaranteed. In the second part, on the basis of a survey of experts, the answers to two questions are sought: whether they feel that impartial advice is expected of them and whether they provide it. There are negative elements in the responses on both counts, suggesting that despite some evidence of demand for such advice on the part of policy-makers, expert advice is often not impartial.     

审计委员会财务专家监督作用的多维透析

本文从政策规范、学术研究和运行机制等多个维度剖析了审计委员会财务专家的公司治理角色,认为财务专家在公司治理中发挥了积极的监督作用,但实务中对财务专家的定义和财务专家有效监督基理的认识还存在一定的差异性和模糊性。本文还认为,确保兼具独立性和专业胜任能力的财务专家以及完善财务专家市场和财务专家的职业声誉机制,是财务专家发挥有效监督作用的关键所在。