Impact of exchange rates on ASEAN's trade in the era of global value chains: An empirical assessment

ABSTRACT

Exchange rate risk remains a key concern for export-oriented economies in Southeast Asia. Traditionally, export performance is thought to be adversely affected by exchange rate appreciation and high exchange rate volatility. Nonetheless, in the context of global value chains where export production relies heavily on imported inputs, the trade effects of exchange rate may be weakened. Using the OECD-WTO Trade in Value-added (TiVA) database, this paper seeks to tease out the association between exchange rate movements, volatility and aggregate exports of goods and services among ASEAN economies. More importantly, it investigates whether integration into GVCs affects these relationships. Applying panel regression techniques to a sample of eight ASEAN countries over the period 1995–2011, we found that high share of foreign value added (FVA) embodied in exports almost completely offsets the negative effect of an appreciation in the real effective exchange rate (REER) on real gross exports. At the same time, high FVA share also dampens the negative association between exports and increased REER volatility.     

Export Structure Optimized

The rapid growth of China＇s trade surplus is a reflection of its industrial advancement and growing competitiveness.     

我国畜牧业产品出口面临的障碍及对策

我国是畜牧业生产大国,许多畜牧产品产量居世界首位,而我国畜牧业产品出口贸易发展却严重滞后,本文通过分析我国畜牧业产品出口面临的主要障碍,提出扩大我国畜牧产品出口的对策。     

我国劳务输出与出口贸易关系的实证研究

采用聚类分析方法对我国30个省市劳务输出与出口贸易的关系进行了比较研究，结果表明，我国中西部地区与东部地区在对外劳务合作与贸易往来中的活跃程度存在着显著性差异。具体而言，东部沿海各省、直辖市的出口贸易与劳务输出之间的关系已经进入良性循环阶段，而中西部各省的出口贸易与劳务输出之间的相互促进机制仍旧处于起步阶段。     

A Political Economic Analysis of U.S. Rice Export Programs to Japan and South Korea: A Game-Theoretic Approach

The Uruguay Round Agreement on agriculture has contributed to the increase in U.S. and world rice trade since 1994. Despite this, the Japanese and Korean rice markets continue to be characterized by high levels of trade intervention. This article attempts to analyze both import markets incorporating econometric estimates and public choice theory in a game-theoretic framework. Various scenarios are analyzed. The results show that the overall Nash equilibrium occurs with a 4% tariff reduction for Japan and Korea under the U.S. Market Development Program, which includes the Market Access Program and Foreign Market Development Program.     

人民币升值下中国外贸顺差趋势的原因分析——基于国内紧缩政策与世界经济不确定性

汇率改革以来,在人民币升值趋势下,由于目前国际货币体系构成的复杂性、国际产业转移形成的"迁移效应"和世界市场对中国产品需求大量增加等深层次根源,导致了中国巨额贸易顺差。但由于世界经济放缓、人民币汇率和国内政策调控等因素,认为2008年外贸继续保持自2002年以来连续六年22%以上增势的可能性较小,2008全年外贸顺差增速可能放缓。     

Factors affecting trade in services: evidence from panel data

In the course of economic development, nations have typically progressed through stages in which agriculture, then manufacturing and, finally, services predominate. Concerns around the sustainability of manufacturing and goods export-led growth raise the importance of trade in services. In the context of a panel model, controlling for the factors that determine trade in general, we examine the determinants of trade in services in a sample of 46 countries over the decade 2004–2015. We find an ambiguous pattern of effects from institutional quality but strong evidence of the importance of trade in goods for trade in services.     

The Structure and Composition of India’s Exports and Industrial Transformation (1980–2000)

Abstract

This paper analyses structural change in Indian manufactured exports empirically for 143 (mainly manufacturing) industrial groupings. Trade indices such as Balassa’s revealed comparative advantage (RCA) index and variants are used. Detailed econometric analysis is employed to examine structural change. The stability and the process of the intertemporal evolution of the RCA indices is considered. Three technology categories (high technology, medium technology and low technology) are analysed individually. Our results point towards substantial industrial restructuring in manufactured exports. We find evidence of despecialisation within India’s manufactured exports for the time period studied, which is consistent with increasing specialisation in a subset of manufactured exports.     

The Determinants of Nicaraguan Nonagricultural Exporters: A Firm-Level Perspective

Nicaragua, as a small emerging market with a challenging history of economic and political turmoil, is understudied within the international business context. Utilizing the World Bank's 2010 Nicaragua Enterprise Survey, this article explores which nonagricultural Nicaraguan firms are best suited to export. Important findings include firm location, firm size, ownership composition, performance, firm industry, firm quality programs, and firm origin in the informal sector. These findings are discussed within the Nicaraguan context.