The impact of parallel market exchange rate volatility and oil exports on real GDP in Syria: Evidence from the ARDL approach

This paper investigates the impact of parallel market exchange rate volatility and trade on real GDP and real GDP growth in the Syrian economy over the period of 1990Q1–2010Q4. To this end, we first construct a parallel market exchange rate volatility indicator. Second, we estimate an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model where we include our indicator of volatility among the main determinants of real GDP. Our findings imply that real GDP can be explained by three main variables: parallel market exchange rate, money supply, and oil exports. The long-run equilibrium reveals that parallel market exchange rate volatility has a negative impact on real GDP compared to the positive impact of money supply and oil exports. In contrast, the short-run impact of parallel market exchange rate volatility on real GDP growth is positive and very small counter to the long-run impact. Furthermore, the coefficient of the error correction term of the estimated ARDL model indicates that real GDP deviation from the equilibrium level will be corrected by about 10% after each quarter.     

International Marketing of Services and Developing Countries

ABSTRACT

The internationalization of services has gained great momentum in recent years. This article analyzes prospects of developing countries in the international marketing of services by examining past trends of service exports by developing countries, and relating these to demand for services in developed countries through a series of autoregression analyses. Results show that developing countries were marginalized in the international market for services over the 20-year study period. However, there are bright future prospects. The greatest prospects would be in travel services, followed by transport services. Implications of the findings for government policy in the service sector are discussed.     

我国大豆出口影响因素实证分析

我国种植大豆的历史悠久,总产量和出口量曾占世界市场份额的90%以上,与美国、巴西、阿根廷并列为世界四大大豆生产大国。基于引力模型,选取2008年我国大豆出口截面数据作为因变量,各国和各地区的GDP、人均GDP、我国与各国的的地理距离等数据作为自变量,实证分析了我国大豆出口的影响因素,证实了各进口国和地区的人均GDP与我国大豆出口呈正相关,进口国和地区的GDP和人均消费能力的增长在一定程度上有利于我国大豆的出口增长,而距离与我国大豆出口负相关。为提升我国大豆出口竞争力,应开拓市场,加强对外联系,增加对大豆的科研投入,减少大豆的生产成本,挖掘我国大豆的绿色能量。     

Does Innovation Matter for Chinese High-Tech Exports? A Firm-Level Analysis

This paper investigates the impact of innovation on export decisions of Chinese high-tech firms during the period of 2005–2007. Using a parametric, instrumental variable approach and a non-parametric matching method, we find that firm-level innovation efforts, measured by R&D spending and new product output, play only a minor role for domestic exporters. Foreign-invested firms dominate the high-tech exports but do not rely on indigenous innovation activities. These results demonstrate that the success of Chinese high-tech exports does not result from heavy R&D expenditure and technological progress. Moreover, different types of innovation measures show different impacts on the likelihood of exporting. The impacts of innovation on exporting vary widely across industries and Chinese regions.     

对外直接投资对出口技术复杂度的影响研究

出口技术结构对一国的对外贸易质量有着重要影响。将对外直接投资引入Ｍｅｔｉｌｚ理论模型,分析其对出口技术结构的影响,利用修正的出口技术复杂度对出口技术结构进行测算,并实证检验我国２９个省市２００２—２００８年ＯＦＤＩ对出口技术结构的影响。结果表明：ＯＦＤＩ通过逆向技术溢出途径降低出口企业的转型成本,优化国内的产业结构,从而促进出口技术结构的升级。剔除了加工贸易的影响后,相比ＦＤＩ和进口贸易,ＯＦＤＩ对出口技术结构的促进作用更显著。此外,人均物质资本与研发投入的影响为正,而人力资本与制度因素的作用为负,加强教育投入、 加快制度变革有助于减少人力资本和制度因素对出口技术结构的负面影响。进一步地,分地区实证检验表明,我国中西部地区的对外直接投资水平不高,从而对出口技术结构的影响也没有东部地区明显。     

人民币汇率传递的不对称性及其对中国进出口的影响

从汇率传递不对称性角度分析了汇率变动对进出口的影响和对马歇尔-勒纳条件的影响;利用中国进出口的国别面板数据进行实证检验,得出人民币汇率变动对进口的影响大于对出口的影响,人民币汇率贬值对进出口影响大于升值对进出口的影响;根据汇率传递的不完全性和不对称性分析了人民币汇率变动对中国进出口影响的有限性和不对称性的原因。     

影响中国服务贸易出口的可量化因素分析

根据1990-2004年中国服务贸易出口及其可量化因素的时间序列数据建立的多元线性回归模型,印证了人均国内生产总值、世界GDP增长率、服务业占GDP的比重、货物贸易出口额等因素对中国服务贸易出口的影响。因此,应优化服务贸易出口结构。扩大市场开发度和加大政府支持力度,以增加中国服务贸易的出口。     

攀升全球价值链何以“稳出口”:机理与实证

当前面临国内国际环境深刻变化,中国出口贸易发展面临严峻挑战和压力,而具有结构性调整的"攀升全球价值链中高端"是否会带来结构性减速,从而进一步加大出口贸易下行压力,成为理论和实践部门关注的重要课题。通过理论分析认为,无论是从附加值创造能力角度看,还是"固链"从而稳定出口贸易产业之根角度看,全球价值链中高端优势都要显著强于中低端,即攀升全球价值链中高端本质上更加有助于"稳出口"。进一步利用中国制造业企业层面的微观数据,计量检验结果证实了上述理论预期。因此,新形势下努力攀升全球价值链中高端,不仅有助于改善分工地位和提高开放效益,对于缓解当前出口面临增速下滑压力也有重要政策意涵。     

人民币实际汇率波动的价格传递效应研究——基于贸易收支的视角

自2005年汇率制度改革以来,人民币汇率发生了深刻的变化。文章使用2005年-2013年间的月度数据,通过建立计量模型,以人民币实际有效汇率和实际收入水平为解释变量,进出口贸易额为被解释变量,实证分析了人民币汇率变动对我国贸易收支的影响。研究结果表明,人民币汇率变动与进出口贸易额和实际收入水平具有长期的协整关系,而且人民币实际有效汇率对进出口贸易额的影响只存在统计上的单项因果关系。     

Monetary shocks,exchange rates,and the extensive margin of exports

This paper develops a two-country Dynamic General Equilibrium model to assess the relationship between the real exchange rate and the extensive margin of exports. Exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices governs the relative strength of a demand channel onto the exporting decision of a firm. With incomplete pass-through, a favorable movement in the real exchange rate generates increased export participation and an expansion in the extensive margin of exports. This result is consistent with firm-level studies, and contributes to an ongoing empirical debate as to the importance of changes in export participation over the business cycle.