Productive capabilities: An empirical analysis of their drivers

Recent contributions to the growth and trade literature have argued that the structure of an economy, as measured by its productive capabilities, is a key determinant for inter-country differences in development. Productive capabilities have been shown to be highly predictive of future economic growth, yet the country-level variables associated with them remain relatively unknown. In this paper, we empirically explore what variables are systematically associated with productive capabilities using a model averaging framework that can handle a very large number of potential explanatory variables without the need for arbitrary model selection. In order to estimate our dynamic panel specification, we propose a novel Bayesian averaging of classical estimates procedure based on the simple and efficient bias-corrected least squares dummy variable estimator. Our baseline and robustness analysis consider a large number of variables, sample periods and model priors. We find that there is persistence (as measured by the lagged dependent variable) and that variables, such as commodity terms of trade, energy availability, government consumption, capital per worker, arable land and capital inflows show a strong and robust association with capabilities.     

The impact of trade facilitation factors on South Africa's exports to a selection of African countries

Economic growth can be enhanced through increased trade among countries, provided the correct institutional structures are in place. A country's trade is dependent not only on its own trade facilitation reforms but also on those of the trading partners. This paper, using an augmented gravity model, examines trade facilitation factors that impact on South Africa's exports to other selected African countries. The results of the estimation reveal the following. An improvement in the customs environment within the importing country provides the largest gain in terms of increasing trade flows, followed by the regulatory environment and domestic infrastructure. Furthermore, adjacency and common language impact positively on South African exports, while distance between countries impacts negatively on it. Being part of the Southern African Development Community is also enhancing exports from South Africa, compared with being part of the East African Community.     

我国投资、消费、净出口与经济增长的实证分析

通过国际比较和建立模型，分析了我国近10年来投资、消费、净出口三驾马车与GDP增长的相关关系，结合“十二五”时期我国面临的国际、国内形势分析了我国转变经济发展方式中存在的突出问题，提出了相关政策建议。     

人民币汇率与商品出口结构——基于中国省际数据的经验研究

汇率对商品出口结构的影响一直是学术界关注的热点问题之一。本文构建了汇率通过影响相对成本价格从而改变贸易数量结构和贸易金额结构的理论模型,分析表明:人民币升值会使得较多使用国外投入成本的产品更具有相对价格优势而增加其在数量结构上的比重。进一步地,本文选取全国30个省份21类HS分类商品出口数据为分析样本,采用面板协整方法实证检验了人民币汇率变动对我国商品出口结构的影响,结果表明:人民币升值将增加传统优势行业产品出口占总额的比重,但高科技行业的这一比例将会降低。     

后危机时代价值尺度下的出口物流量研究——以台州市为例

2008年底全球金融海啸爆发,外贸货物吞吐量大幅度下降,企业产品的出口受到了严重冲击。为了应对金融危机,本文以台州为例就物流量受金融危机影响的程度进行了分析,重点关注了后危机时代的出口物流量变化,创造性的以价值为尺度,利用出口额表征物流量,对影响物流量的当前时间因素、结构现状及单指标进行了深入的分析。最后从政府、企业和金融部门提出一系列增进物流量的对策措施,以支持台州经济的持续健康快速发展。     

基尼系数在中美出口贸易中的角色

在贸易引力模型的基础上,引入中国基尼系数和美国基尼系数两个新变量,作为中国对美国出口的影响因素。进而构建了无基尼系数模型、乘基尼系数模型和指数基尼系数模型;并利用中国对美国1978年—2008年的出口额,依次估计了三个模型。最终,基于模型特征,选择乘基尼系数模型来解释中国对美国出口的决定因素。得出结论：中国的基尼系数增加阻碍了中国对美国的出口,美国的基尼系数增加促进了美国对中国的进口。     

浅析商务英语谈判中“碳关税”对贸易的影响

在全球经济一体化的进程中,对外贸易谈判是最重要的沟通交流手段之一,谈判结果关系到国家和企业的切身利益。作为国际通用语言——商务英语是双方在谈判中沟通的媒介,国家及企业谈判代表必须熟练掌握并灵活运用商务英语的各种策略及技巧,以便实现谈判目标并且维护国家的正当利益。此文以"碳关税"对中国出口贸易的影响为例,聚焦了在发展经济中出现的温室气体排放问题。各国开始纷纷在碳关税问题上动作,国际上一些国家开始征收碳关税,此举既给中国出口贸易带来了机遇也给其带来了严峻的挑战。作为发展中国家,我们需要运用恰当有效的商务谈判技巧来最大限度的消除矛盾和平衡各方利益。     

Gravity Model of Turkey's Fresh and Processed Fruit and Vegetable Export to the EU

Abstract

This study analyses the factors that determine Turkey's fresh and processed fruit and vegetable exports to the European Union (EU) using a gravity model. Panel data from 1995 to 2001 for 13 EU member countries are utilized. The explanatory variables are GDP, population, distance, Turkish population living in EU member countries, and being non-Mediterranean. Results indicate that the size of the economy, EU population, Turkish population in the EU, and addressing the tastes and preferences of non-Mediterranean countries are significant factors that affect Turkish fruit and vegetable exports. The results suggest that marketing strategies targeting the population of Turkish people in EU countries and non-Mediterranean member countries enhance the export performance of fruit and vegetable exports.     

INFRASTRUCTURE QUALITY AND MANUFACTURING EXPORTS IN AFRICA: A FIRM‐LEVEL ANALYSIS

Using bilateral trade flow models, a body of empirical work has documented how geography and infrastructure variables affect trade performance. However, in this paper, we apply censored regression models like the Tobit and Probit on firm‐level manufacturing data from 10 African countries, and results suggest that inadequate infrastructure in the form of customs, transport, electricity and water negatively affects export intensity and participation. Owning a generator and private water source also appear to have a significant impact on exports. This, therefore, means that firms can minimise the impact of power and water disruption on production, and hence trade by installing these alternative energy and water sources.     

The economic costs and benefits of UK defence exports

This study examines the economic costs and benefits to the UK of a 50 per cent cut in UK defence exports from the average level of 1998 and 1999. The net impact on the government budget is estimated to be an ongoing loss of between around £40 million and £100 million a year: around 0.2–0.4 per cent of the total UK defence budget. In addition, there is estimated to be a one‐off net adjustment cost, spread over five years, of between £0.9 billion and £1.4 billion. A further more speculative adjustment cost (estimated at around £1.1 billion) could result if the loss of income associated with the ‘terms‐of‐trade£ effect were also included. In terms of the wider debate about defence exports, the results of this study suggest first that the economic effects of the reduction in defence exports are relatively small and largely one‐off, and secondly that the balance of arguments about UK defence exports should be determined mainly by non‐economic factors.