对中美双边贸易利益结构的测算与分析——基于WWZ方法的测算与实证研究

随着全球价值链分工与贸易的发展，在增加值视角下重新测算与分析中美双边贸易的利益结构，对解释2018年中美贸易摩擦具有重要意义。文章应用双边/产业层面的贸易增加值核算方法，从前向生产联系和后向生产联系两个角度对中美双边贸易利益结构进行国家层面和产业层面的研究，并对中国增加值出口的影响因素进行实证检验。主要结论有：增加值视角下的中美贸易顺差严重缩水，美方发布的贸易逆差数据严重失真；中国在全球价值链中的位置落后于美国，导致贸易顺差在中国，但结构性收益在美国；中国服务业在中美贸易中的获利能力远不及制造业，2000—2014年中国主要的顺差产业未发生较大变化；参与全球价值链对我国制造业和非制造业增加值出口的影响不同，吸引外资对中国产业增加值出口具有显著的正向促进作用。     

“换汇成本”理论与应用辨析

传统贸易理论把换汇成本界定为特定意义的“FOB换汇成本”多有局限性.“出口人民币成本”和“出口外汇净收入”两个换汇成本要素需要有更明确的判定,使它能够真实地反映各种贸易条件下的换汇能力和赢利水平.在此基础上,对实践中的换汇成本报价法作出纠正.     

Geographical indication and wine exports. An empirical investigation considering the major European producers

Adopting a gravity framework and using data from 1995 to 2009 for France, Italy and Spain, we investigate whether the designation of the production area has a positive pay-off in terms of greater export values, volumes and presence in different export markets. We find that quality wines produced in specified regions (QWPSR) are associated with higher exports values, while higher export volumes tend to materialize only towards high-income destination markets. Besides, the geographical designation appears increasing the extensive margin of trade. Therefore, QWPSR may represent a strategic tool for differentiation granting competitiveness in both traditional and less habitual markets. Not all producers, yet, seem to have benefited to the same extent from the geographical designation, raising the question of what harmonizing and/or promotional strategy should be adopted to enhance the effectiveness of the quality wine protection system.     

Trade policy,export expansion,human capital and growth

This paper empirically investigates the impact of trade policy on export expansion and on GDP growth in developing countries while controlling for the human capital stock and the initial level of development. By using a simultaneous system estimation we unite the approach found in the export expansion and growth literature with the approach found in papers that estimate the effect of trade policy on growth, while also making several improvements in the estimation of the underlying relationships. The results obtained from our estimation are more credible because of these improvements and therefore have stronger policy implications. We find that outward-oriented trade policies substantially and significantly impact growth in developing countries not only by directly enhancing exports but also through a feedback (or multiplier) effect.     

深圳港口发展及其影响因素——基于协整模型实证

本文首先从经济结构、第三产业服务业水平和港口吞吐量对比分析了香港与深圳两地的经济环境,提出了深圳港口在新时期里发展的重要性。进一步基于协整模型分析第三产业增加值和进出口贸易总额与港口吞吐量的长期均衡关系,探析第三产业和进出口贸易在港口发展的长期影响和短期动态影响机制,并对未来深圳港口业发展及其提升提出相关政策建议。     

Notes

Editor's Note: Starting with this issue, the Journal will include a new section to accommodate a growing prevalance of shorter articles with single-issue orientation.     

关于我国服装出口亟待自主品牌国际化的研究

一流企业卖品牌,二流企业卖技术,三流的企业卖产品,四流企业卖苦力。我国是服装制造大国,但不是服装创造大国。为了应对国际金融危机,国际贸易贸易摩擦和纠纷、提高国际化经营的效益,必须改变90%靠贴牌生产出口的局面,亟待发展服装自主品牌出口,转变服装出口增长方式。本文通过服装自主品牌识势、品牌蓄势、品牌造势、努力提升打造品牌的执行力,不仅要打造服装自主品牌出口,而且要形成服装自主品牌国际化经营之势,从而实现由OEM向OBM的转变,实现由服装生产大国向服装品牌大国的跨越。     

Marketing Sustainable Farming Food Products in Europe

Abstract

There is no specific market for sustainable farming food products. Sustainability is inconceivable to consumers. In eating behaviour, the principle of precautionary results in a need for safety and authenticity. Consumers search for organic, native tang, regional or typical products. Food with Designation of Origin gives a meaning to taste. For sustainable farming, the future will be dependent on the valorisation of these products. Arrival of highly technological products should result in a compensatory demand for food with Designation of Origin. Sustainable farming food products must use a specific marketing mix. Marketing approach is not far removed from sustainable farming: respect the consumer as we should respect the Earth.     

Foreign direct investment and exports The experiences of Vietnam1

We examined the implementation statuses of a total of 5,919 foreign direct investment (FDI) projects approved by the Vietnamese Ministry of Planning and Investment since 1988, and compiled a database of actually disbursed FDI in Vietnam. The database covers FDI flows into Vietnam from 23 countries from 1990 to 2004. Using the data, we analyzed the impact of FDI on the exports of Vietnam with gravity equations. The empirical results demonstrate that FDI is one of the major factors driving the rapid export growth of Vietnam. It has significantly facilitated the expansion of Vietnam's exports to FDI source countries. In particular, the empirical analysis shows that a 1 percent increase in FDI inflows will be expected to give rise to a 0.13 percent increase in Vietnam's exports to these countries.     

中国与挪威水产品贸易研究综述

水产品对外贸易发达与否是衡量一个国家或地区渔业经济发展水平的重要标志之一.近年来,我国水产品出口贸易得到长足发展,中国是世界头号渔业大国,2004年,出口量和出口额分别达到242.1万t,69.7亿美元,占世界水产品出口份额的7%,位居第一.中国是世界第一大海产品生产国,渔业产量占世界的1/3,挪威是世界第一大海产品出口国.本文主要就我国水产品进出口贸易的特点,面临的问题,及我国与挪威水产品贸易概况等方面的研究作一个综述.