International Integration,Trade, and the Great Recession

In the wake of the Great Recession, almost all countries suffered a severe and synchronized trade collapse unlike any seen since the Great Depression. To the extent that economic integration fosters trade among countries, this paper examines the role that international integration played in moderating the negative shock caused by the Great Recession on trade. The methodology adopted is a modified gravity model in which we control for the Great Recession, different forms of integration, as well as the interaction between integration and the recession. Measuring integration in three different ways, the findings show that countries that were more integrated fared better in trade – the extent of trade collapse was milder – than less integrated countries. Specifically, Regional Trade Agreement, as a form of trade integration, had a positive and robust effect on trade during the Great Recession. This positive effect is also robust across regions and countries around the world. In a nutshell, countries that are into some form of trade agreements are better-positioned to absorb negative demand-side shocks caused by economic recessions than similar countries without such agreements.     

Turkey's Comparative Advantages and Dynamic Market Positioning in the EU Market

This paper reveals the static and dynamic comparative advantages of Turkish exports in the EU-15 market in relation to the exports of the non-EU-15 countries, covering the period 1996–2010, based on three-digit Standard International Trade Classification industries. In this regard, this paper is the first attempt to evaluate the dynamic revealed comparative advantage patterns of Turkey vis-à-vis its competitors in the European Union (EU) market. Whether there have been significant changes in Turkey's comparative advantages in the EU market and in which sectors these changes can be utilized further as potential advantages are two important issues affecting the prospects of trade policy in Turkey, which is a candidate for EU membership.     

人民币升值、出口退税、贸易成本与出口增长

选取2008年全球金融危机后49组月度数据,采用协整与误差修正模型实证估计了汇率、出口退税以及贸易成本对我国出口的影响。研究表明,在短期,出口退税率上调与贸易成本下降对出口的综合激励效应会减弱人民币升值对出口的抑制效应;在长期,人民币升值通过有效调整出口商品结构也促进了出口增长。     

Commodity Studies and Commodity Fetishism I: Trading Down

This first instalment of a two-part review essay on current work in commodity studies considers, at some length, an important and distinctive text by Peter Gibbon and Stefano Ponte. It draws on a unique set of case studies of African export commodities, using (and developing) the framework of Global Value Chain (GVC) theory, of American provenance, together with elements of the mostly French literature on quality conventions. Gibbon and Ponte also seek to incorporate key mechanisms of globalization and international trade, and their forms of regulation, and to evaluate the effects of the book's analysis and argument for prospects of improving the performance of African agricultural exports in particular. Here we provide a detailed exposition, discussion, and assessment of the book. We conclude that, for all its intellectual virtues, there are some central tensions in its argument that reflect the lacunae and limitations of the kind of economic sociology the authors employ – which, contentiously, they designate as 'historical political economy'.     

Commodity Studies and Commodity Fetishism II: ‘Profits with Principles’?

The two edited collections and the monograph reviewed here provide the means to consider an extended range of commodities, locations, commodity/value chains, and issues of theory and method in political economy, beyond those presented by Gibbon and Ponte (2005) that we considered in the first part of this essay. Our discussion here touches on issues concerning how 'global' global commodity/value chains are; the symbolic attributes of commodities and commodity fetishism; the politics of consumption (or simply politics of selling and buying); the strengths and weaknesses of the economic sociology of commodity/value chains; and how the 'slices' extracted from larger organisms in studies of particular commodities may be reinserted, as it were, as part of the understanding of contemporary capitalism and of issues of development in the economies of the 'South'.     

对中美双边贸易利益结构的测算与分析——基于WWZ方法的测算与实证研究

随着全球价值链分工与贸易的发展，在增加值视角下重新测算与分析中美双边贸易的利益结构，对解释2018年中美贸易摩擦具有重要意义。文章应用双边/产业层面的贸易增加值核算方法，从前向生产联系和后向生产联系两个角度对中美双边贸易利益结构进行国家层面和产业层面的研究，并对中国增加值出口的影响因素进行实证检验。主要结论有：增加值视角下的中美贸易顺差严重缩水，美方发布的贸易逆差数据严重失真；中国在全球价值链中的位置落后于美国，导致贸易顺差在中国，但结构性收益在美国；中国服务业在中美贸易中的获利能力远不及制造业，2000—2014年中国主要的顺差产业未发生较大变化；参与全球价值链对我国制造业和非制造业增加值出口的影响不同，吸引外资对中国产业增加值出口具有显著的正向促进作用。     

“换汇成本”理论与应用辨析

传统贸易理论把换汇成本界定为特定意义的“FOB换汇成本”多有局限性.“出口人民币成本”和“出口外汇净收入”两个换汇成本要素需要有更明确的判定,使它能够真实地反映各种贸易条件下的换汇能力和赢利水平.在此基础上,对实践中的换汇成本报价法作出纠正.     

Global rice trade competitiveness: a shift‐share analysis

Changes in country shares of global rice exports from 1997 to 2008 are analyzed using an econometric, shift‐share analytical framework. This framework estimates growth rates and disaggregates these rates of change into geographical structure effects and performance effects. The performance effect is further decomposed into two subeffects accounting for adaptation to changes in the geographical structure of the marketplace and a competitiveness effect. A restricted, weighted, two‐way fixed effects model is specified for estimating the geographical structure and performance effects. Results indicate a growing concentration among a few exporting countries in the global rice market, and the competitiveness effect is often significant. Government policies affecting rice trade and the competitiveness of trading partners are important factors for the shifts in rice trade patterns. In particular, Vietnam is an emerging, major player in global rice trade in competition with Thailand.     

Cities export specialization

We analyse whether more populated cities have an export specialization different from the one of less populated cities. Using very detailed product-level export data for Brazilian urban areas over the period 2000–2013, we show that more populated cities export proportionately more skill-intensive and complex goods than less populated cities. This result is consistent with the larger diversity of skills and the higher share of skilled workers in more populated cities.     

Effect of financial development on international trade in Africa: Does measure of finance matter?

Although improving international trade on the back of financial sector development is one of the preoccupations of countries in Africa, empirical literature on financial development-trade nexus has not been rigorous in examining how finance shapes trade. In this study, we examine the effect of financial development on international trade in Africa relying on data for 46 countries over the period 1980–2015. Results from our system generalized method of moments reveal differential effects of finance on trade. In particular, we notice that, private credit does not promote trade while domestic credit positively affects trade. These effects are robust to measures of trade. Thus, improving the level of private (domestic) credit dampens (amplifies) exports and trade openness. However, we also find a U-shaped relationship between private credit and trade measures suggesting that financial sector development may be detrimental (helpful) to trade for economies with low (high) level of private credit.