Trading activities,productivity and markups: Evidence for Spanish manufacturing

This work analyses the firms' internationalisation strategies of importing intermediates and exporting output, and the potential rewards of these activities in terms of total factor productivity (TFP), as a proxy for marginal costs, and markups. It further deepens into the study of the relationship between internationalisation strategies and markups by disentangling whether it operates through affecting firms' marginal costs and/or firms' prices. The panel database employed in this paper is the Spanish Survey on Business Strategies (ESEE) for the period 2006–14. Results in the paper distinguish between SMEs and large firms and indicate that there is high persistence in the performance of these activities and in firms' TFP and markups. For SMEs, we obtain rewards from importing inputs as well as exporting output in terms of TFP and markups. For large firms, we obtain rewards in TFP from the importing activity and rewards in markups from the exporting activity. Finally, we find evidence that the effects of internationalisation strategies on markups are due to both a price channel and a marginal cost channel.     

Personality traits,basic individual values and GMO risk perception of twitter users

Abstract

The present study investigates how the most foundational factors to individual differences – personality traits and personal values – affect the perceived safety of genetic modification and their relative importance. Publicly available communication data from 522 Twitter accounts discussing genetically modified foods and their safety was processed in two steps. First, accounts were categorized by the researchers as viewing GM foods as either safe or not safe. Second, using the IBM Watson platform, the Twitter communication data were subjected to lexical analysis to assign scores according to the Five Factor Model for personality traits and Schwartz’s basic individual values to the individual accounts. Logistic regression analyses were performed to determine how perceived GM food safety is linked to personality traits and individual values. Although both traits and values significantly contribute to explaining GM attitudes, personality traits strongly moderate the effect of individual values on risk perception.     

Pricing the hedging factor in the cross-section of stock returns

We investigate the role of investors’ net hedging strategy (factor) in predicting stock returns and pricing the cross-section of individual stocks and equity portfolios. We estimate stock exposure to changes in the hedging factor and show that the hedging premium is driven by outperformance of stocks with large positive net hedging betas, which explains their higher average returns. We find the positive hedging premium indicates risk-averse investors demand extra compensation to hold stocks with higher equity risk premiums, and they are themselves willing to pay higher prices for stocks with positive hedging betas.     

Changing land use intensity in Europe – Recent processes in selected case studies

In recent decades the intensification of agricultural production in many European countries has been one of the key components of land-use change. The impact of agricultural intensification varies according to national and local contexts and a greater understanding of the drivers of intensification will help to mitigate against its negative impacts and harness potential benefits. This paper analyses changes in land use intensity in six case studies in Europe. A total of 437 landowners were interviewed and their responses were analysed in relation to changes in land use intensity and agricultural production between 2001 and 2011. In the case studies in Western and Eastern Europe we observed stabilisation during the last decade, and no clear tendency of increase or decrease of land use intensity. The use of fertilizers and pesticides seems to have decreased in our cases in Western Europe, which is contrary to trends in Eastern Europe. Agricultural production remained stable in almost all cases, except for an increase in Austria and Romania which may indicate that the farming efficiency has increased. A statistical analysis showed a division between study areas in Romania and Austria (increasing land use intensity) versus those in the Netherlands, Denmark and Greece (decreasing). In the Mediterranean cases we observe a process where agriculture is becoming increasingly marginalised, at the same time as changes in function with regard to urbanisation and recreational land uses have taken place. Logistic regression highlighted the importance of farm size and farmer type in understanding changes in land use intensity. The dominant pattern of stabilisation which has occurred over the past 10 years may also partly be a result of effective EU and national environmental and agricultural policies, which are increasingly concerned with improving environmental conditions in rural areas.     

审视新结构经济学:一个多维视角

要素禀赋论又被称为要素比例理论,被誉为国际贸易理论的一大柱石. 新结构经济学以要素禀赋理论为基础,将一国的产业结构变迁归因于要素禀赋结构的变化.本文的分析表明:新结构经济学忽视了某些重要的历史因素和现实因素;如果按照新结构经济学的建议来制定一国的发展战略,企业在要素使用结构上将会高度一致,从而可能导致一国经济在面临外部冲击时产生巨大波动.     

Forecasting China's GDP growth using dynamic factors and mixed-frequency data

Forecasting GDP growth is important and necessary for Chinese government to set GDP growth target. To fully and efficiently utilize macroeconomic and financial information, this paper attempts to forecast China's GDP growth using dynamic predictors and mixed-frequency data. The dynamic factor model is first applied to select dynamic predictors among large amount of monthly macroeconomic and daily financial data and then the mixed data sampling regression is applied to forecast quarterly GDP growth based on the selected monthly and daily predictors. Empirical results show that forecasts using dynamic predictors and mixed-frequency data have better accuracy comparing to traditional forecasting methods. Moreover, forecasts with leads and forecast combination can further improve forecast performance.     

A study on the importance of airline selection attributes by airline type: An emphasis on the difference of opinion in between Korean and overseas aviation experts

The main purpose of this research is to understand the relative importance of airline selection attributes that are considered important by passengers when selecting an airline. Specifically, we analyzed how the attribute selections differed based on airline types, a Full Service Carrier (FSC) and a Low Cost Carrier (LCC). For this purpose, a Delphi analysis was performed with 34 Korean aviation experts and 32 overseas aviation experts as the target sample groups. Statistical tests including Mann-Whitney U Test and Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test, were used to analyze the selection attributes. In the case of FSCs, safety, flight schedule, cabin interior, and fast check-in processes were considered to be important selection attributes whereas for LCCs, air fare level, flight safety, the convenience of air ticket purchasing procedures, and additional charges were considered to be the important selection attributes. Additionally, there was a difference in the importance of airline selection attributes depending on whether it was a Korean or overseas aviation market. The result of these findings may be utilized as basic data in establishing a marketing strategy for an airline company to attract more passengers.     

ARBITRAGE‐FREE BILATERAL COUNTERPARTY RISK VALUATION UNDER COLLATERALIZATION AND APPLICATION TO CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS

We develop an arbitrage‐free valuation framework for bilateral counterparty risk, where collateral is included with possible rehypothecation. We show that the adjustment is given by the sum of two option payoff terms, where each term depends on the netted exposure, i.e., the difference between the on‐default exposure and the predefault collateral account. We then specialize our analysis to credit default swaps (CDS) as underlying portfolios, and construct a numerical scheme to evaluate the adjustment under a doubly stochastic default framework. In particular, we show that for CDS contracts a perfect collateralization cannot be achieved, even under continuous collateralization, if the reference entity’s and counterparty’s default times are dependent. The impact of rehypothecation, collateral margining frequency, and default correlation‐induced contagion is illustrated with numerical examples.     

基于因子分析和DEA模型的现代光伏农业技术经济性综合评价研究

发展现代光伏农业是推进现代农业可持续发展的重要途径，对现代光伏农业进行技术经济性综合评价有较强的现实意义，为此，建立了因子分析法和DEA相结合的现代光伏农业技术经济性综合评价模型。首先，利用因子分析法对评价指标进行了降维处理；然后，根据DEA模型需要对指标数据进行了标准化处理；最后，利用DEA模型完成了对50亩智能农业大棚各经营方案的评价，结果表明：将光伏发电和温室大棚种植相结合具有良好的技术经济效益。     

A new index of financial conditions

We use factor augmented vector autoregressive models with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility to construct a financial conditions index that can accurately track expectations about growth in key US macroeconomic variables. Time-variation in the models׳ parameters allows for the weights attached to each financial variable in the index to evolve over time. Furthermore, we develop methods for dynamic model averaging or selection which allow the financial variables entering into the financial conditions index to change over time. We discuss why such extensions of the existing literature are important and show them to be so in an empirical application involving a wide range of financial variables.