Investment climate,outward orientation and manufacturing firm productivity: new empirical evidence

Drawing on the World Bank Enterprise Surveys, we revisit the link between firm-level investment climate and productive performance for a panel of enterprises surveyed twice in time in 70 developing countries and 11 manufacturing industries. We take advantage of the time dimension available for an increasing number of countries to tackle the endogeneity issue stressed in previous studies. We also use pertinent econometric techniques to address other biases inherent in the data (e.g.measurement errors, missing observations and multicollinearity). Our results reinforce previous findings by validating, with a larger than usual sample of countries and industries, the importance of a larger set of environment variables. We show that infrastructure quality, information & communication technologies, skills and experience of the labour force, cost of and access to financing, security and political stability, competition and government relation contribute to firms’ and countries’ performances gap. The empirical analysis also illustrates that firms which choose an outward orientation have higher productivity level. Nevertheless, outward oriented enterprises are more sensitive to investment climate limitations. These findings have important policy implications by showing which dimensions of the business environment, in which industry, could help manufacturing firms to be more competitive in the present context of increasing globalization.     

Firm heterogeneity in services trade: Micro-level evidence from eight OECD countries

This paper shows that smaller and less productive firms, as well as first-time exporters, are overproportionally affected by services trade barriers using micro-data from Belgium, Finland, Germany, Italy, Japan, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States. For these firms, both the propensity to export and export volumes to less restrictive destinations are significantly higher than to more restrictive destinations. In contrast, policy barriers measured by the OECD Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (STRI) do not affect export decisions of the largest, most productive and experience services firms. The pattern holds for two major modes of supply, cross-border services exports and foreign affiliate sales of services firms. The findings are consistent with firm sorting mechanisms in trade models with heterogeneous firms and hysteresis of export participation in the presence of sunk export costs.     

Investment shocks and business cycles

The origins of business cycles are still controversial among macroeconomists. This paper contributes to this debate by studying the driving forces of fluctuations in an estimated new neoclassical synthesis model of the U.S. economy. In this model, most of the variability of output and hours at business cycle frequencies is due to shocks to the marginal efficiency of investment. Imperfect competition and, to a lesser extent, technological frictions are the key to their transmission. Although labor supply shocks explain a large fraction of the fluctuations in hours at very low frequencies, they are irrelevant over the business cycle. This finding is important because the microfoundations of these disturbances are widely regarded as unappealing.     

Increasing market power in Slovenia: Role of diverging trends between exporters and non-exporters

This paper documents the evolution of markups in a small open economy, Slovenia, using a comprehensive data set covering the full population of firms. It makes three novel contributions to the literature. First, in contrast to other work for Europe, we find that markups have increased from 1.05 to 1.19 between 1994 and 2015. Second, while other research so far found exporters typically to have higher markups, we find the opposite in Slovenia. Though the rise in markups occurs both with exporters and non-exporters, there is a consistent diverging trend in markups in favour of non-exporters since 1999. This can be attributed to increased competitive pressure faced by exporters following the comprehensive trade liberalisation after 1999 and their increased participation in global value chains. Third, we decompose aggregate markups and show that the increase in markups, for both exporters and non-exporters, is mainly driven by the within component rather than the reallocation effect. This suggests that all firms were increasing their markups, rather than high-markup firms increasing their market share over time.     

Markup Variation and Productivity Measurement in Singapore*

Conventional measures of total factor productivity using growth accounting may not be appropriate when there is variation in markups across industries. The existence of market power implies that total factor productivity contains an endogenous component related to the variation in markups. I examine the variation of markups at the industry level for the manufacturing and services sectors in Singapore from 1983 to 2003. Using two different measures, I find that the markups in Singapore are significant in most industries, at around 28 and 55percent for the manufacturing and services sectors, respectively. Markups for the services sector declined during the period, while the markups for the key manufacturing industries increased after the Asian financial crisis in 1997. Accounting for variation in markups suggests that improvement in technological progress tends to be underestimated by 0.5–1.0percent per year. The underestimation is more severe in industries with relatively high markups.     

Pricing over the Cycle

In recent studies, the cyclical behavior of markups is examined, but the role of costs in determining markups is ignored. Here, a pricing equation is estimated that implicitly measures the rate of change in markup as a function of aggregate demand growth, aggregate inflation and industry cost inflation. Results for 21 two-digit SIC industries in the U.S. over 1948 to 1979 show incomplete pass-through from cost into price, implying a negative relationship between cost and the markup. Aggregate inflation positively influences prices and markups. Aggregate demand negatively influences prices and markups in highly concentrated industries, but not otherwise.     

Why do private firms adopt IFRS?

Do private firms voluntarily adopt IFRS? If so, why? Answers to these questions have been very limited so far, mainly due to the absence of financial data on private firms. In this paper, I exploit the German setting where the financial statements of private firms are widely available. I estimate multi-period logit regressions on the choice between national GAAP and IFRS for the consolidated financial statements of nearly 3000 German private firms with more than 14,000 firm-years in the period 1998–2010. My results suggest that the expected net benefits of IFRS adoption vary substantially across the group of private firms, depending on their financing needs, governance system, and organizational and informational complexity. Specifically, I find that private firms using IFRS have more growth opportunities, are more leveraged, are externally rated, seek to raise external capital by issuing public bonds or equity, are registered as a stock corporation, are characterized by private equity (PE) involvement, have more international sales and operations, and have a Big Five auditor. These insights should be of great interest to both preparers and regulators in the current debate about the future of financial reporting in private firms.     

Markups,organic agriculture and downstream concentration at the example of European dairy farmers

A competitive environment, highly concentrated processing and retailing sectors as well as increasing decoupling of direct payments from production volumes and the area under cultivation incentivizes farmers to find alternative ways to improve their bargaining position towards downstream companies. This article explores the possibilities of organic agriculture to enhance the bargaining power of farmers along with the role of concentration in downstream industries. Using a dataset with more than 200,000 observations from approximately 40,000 dairy farms, I estimate markups of price over marginal cost in dairy farming as a measure of market power in the EU. The results show that organic farmers achieve a significant markup premium over conventional farmers. With increasing market shares of organic milk in total milk production markups of conventional farmers diminish whereas those of organic farmers are unaffected. Farm-level markups decrease with increasing market shares of medium-sized dairy processors and increase with increasing market shares of large processors. The presence of large multinational retail chains shows an adverse impact on farmers’ markups.     

Firm-level political risk and implied cost of equity capital

I find a strong positive association between firms' implied cost of equity capital and firm-level political risk. This effect is above and beyond the firm-level cost of equity implications of economywide political risk. Firm-level political risk contributes to elevating stock illiquidity, increases dispersion of analyst forecasts and dampens analyst coverage and these attributes, in turn, have positive cost of equity capital implications. Overall, the findings of this study suggest firm-level political risk has a non-trivial effect on increasing equity market illiquidity, increasing dispersion of earnings forecasts and decreasing analyst coverage thus increasing financing costs.     

Inflation and Welfare in a Competitive Search Equilibrium with Asymmetric Information

We study an economy characterized by competitive search and asymmetric information. Money is essential. Buyers decide their cash holdings after observing the contracts posted by firms and experience match-specific preference shocks which remain unknown to sellers. Firms are allowed to post general contracts. In the baseline model with indivisible goods, we show that, when the number of potential buyers is fixed, inflation decreases markups. This, in turn, increases aggregate output and ex ante welfare. When goods are divisible the negative effect of inflation on markups holds for unconstrained agents but is ambiguous for constrained agents. Still, optimal monetary policy implies a positive nominal rate. When there is buyers' free entry, asymmetric information causes a congestion effect that can be corrected by monetary policy.