人民币在岸远期汇率与NDF汇率相互关系的实证研究——兼评人民币在岸远期市场的定价权

文章基于境内市场是离岸市场的信息中心假说,同时考虑到离境NDF市场市场化程度更高的因素,利用MA（1）-GARCH（1,1）模型,对两市场间的相互影响进行检验。实证结果表明,汇改后我国外管局针对人民币在岸远期市场的一系列改革措施已取得了成效。该市场取得了一定的发展,已体现了本土的信息中心优势作用;短期内有较强的定价能力,对离岸人民币NDF汇率产生了影响,但其在中长期的定价能力还较薄弱,很大程度仍受离境NDF市场报价的影响。     

中国工业自主创新能力提升的内在机理分析——基于产业外部性的视角

基于产业外部性的视角,研究我国工业技术创新通过技术溢出实现自主创新能力提升的内在机理并加以实证检验。研究结论为:产业间贸易的前向关联对普通创新有明显促进作用,但对创新程度较高的发明作用不明显;产业间贸易的后向关联由于受到产权结构和"被迫引进"现象的负面影响,对自主创新表现出抑制作用;产业集聚对于创新程度较高的发明有明显促进作用,对普通创新作用不显著;进一步考察发现,产业集聚能加强前向关联的技术溢出,并能减轻甚至消除后向关联对创新的抑制作用。     

Discount curve construction with tension splines

Polynomial splines are popular in the estimation of discount bond term structures, but suffer from well-documented problems with spurious inflection points, excessive convexity, and lack of locality in the effects of input price perturbations. In this paper, we address these issues through the use of shape-preserving splines from the class of generalized tension splines. Our primary focus is on the classical hyperbolic tension spline which we derive non-parametrically from a penalized least squares criterion, but extensions to generalized tension splines—such as rational splines and exponential splines—are also covered. Our methodology allows both for best-fitting of noisy bonds and for the construction of an exact interpolatory term structure to a set of liquid instruments. We work with a local tension B-spline basis and support both fully non-parametric and user-imposed knot location strategies.     

Modelling the Currency Forward Risk Premium: A New Perspective

In this paper we seek to develop a new approach to the time series analysis of foreign exchange risk premia. We do so by assuming a geometric Brownian process for the spot exchange rate and expressing the no-arbitrage spot-forward price relationship under the historical probability measure. We are thereby able to obtain a stochastic differential equation system linking the spot exchange rate, the forward exchange rate and the risk premium (modelled directly as a mean-reverting diffusion process) which we estimate using Kalman filtering techniques. We are able to use observations at a range of frequencies since the framework we set up does not involve overlapping observations. The model is then applied to the French Franc/USD, DEM/USD, GBP/USD, and Japanese Yen/USD exchange rates from 1 January 1990 to 31 December 1998. For all currencies we find evidence that the forward risk premium is stationary and exhibits substantial positive time variation.     

A contribution to duality theory,applied to the measurement of risk aversion

This paper determines the precise connection between the curvature properties of an objective function and the ray-curvature properties of its dual. When the objective function is interpreted as a Bernoulli or cardinal utility function, our results characterize the relationship between an agent’s attitude towards income risks and her attitude towards risks in the underlying consumption space. We obtain these results by developing and applying a number of representation theorems for concave functions.The work of Juan E. Martínez-Legaz has been supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology and the FEDER, project BEC2002-00642, and by the Departament d’Universitats, Recerca i Societat de la Informació, Direcció General de Recerca de la Generalitat de Catalunya, project 2001SGR-00162. He also thanks the Barcelona Economics Program of CREA for its support. John Quah would like to acknowledge with gratitude the financial support of the ESRC (grant number R000271171). He would also like to thank the Department of Economics at UC Berkeley, whose hospitality he enjoyed while completing this project. Both authors would like to thank Simon Cowan for pointing the way to some important references. They are also very grateful to the referee whose insightful suggestions led to a much improved paper     

Why Sunk Costs Matter for Bargaining Outcomes: An Evolutionary Approach

Two bargaining parties play the Nash Demand Game to share a pie whose size is determined by one party's investment decision. Various investment levels are subgame-perfect. Adding the investment decision to Young's evolutionary bargaining model yields the following long-run outcome: efficient investment prevails and the investor's share of the pie approximates die maximum of (i) the smallest share that induces efficient investment, even if the investor expects to appropriate the available pie from every inefficient investment, and (ii) half of the pie. The result favors forward induction to subgame consistency and equity theory to hold-ups. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C78, L14.     

A two-factor learning model for private sector industrial firms

ABSTRACT

The Cobb–Douglas form of the two-factor learning curve model has been the conventional choice in empirical studies of the relative importance of R&D versus capacity expansion for cost reduction in energy technologies. Most empirical studies have focused on the role of public R&D in the context of renewable energy technologies. In this study, we provide a rationale for considering a different model formulation of the tradeoff between R&D and production capacity expansion when studying technology development in the private sector and we compare it to the conventional Cobb–Douglas model. We then apply our model formulation to a particular emerging technology case study.     

外商直接投资行业间技术溢出效应实证分析

文章选取1999~2003年的行业层面板数据,考察了FDI对中国工业部门内资企业生产率的影响。在考虑了多重共线性问题并控制住不可观测的时间效应和行业效应之后,研究结果显示,FDI产生了显著的行业内溢出和前向联系溢出,但后向联系溢出为负。此外,对技术差距最优区间的分析表明,当内资企业生产率为相应外资企业生产率的30%~70%时,前向联系溢出能实现最大化。     

毛泽东军事思想传承之浅见

毛泽东军事思想是一门系统的科学理论。时下，有些人认为毛泽东军事思想已不能指导高技术条件下的现代化战争，笔者就毛泽东军事思想学习传承方面阐述了自己的观点。     

工程承包商预选——渊缘·惯例·探索

为寻找有效途径、改善制度供给,考察政府工程投标资格预审的担保基础和多国惯例,简述并比较新加坡和香港的政府工程牌照制度,肯定中国实践探索的合法性。指出公共工程的业主全面实行投标资格预审是承包商预选的主要基础,应当重点解决资格预审的考核评价方法的科学性、可靠性和便利性,更加有意识地研究和借鉴新加坡的数字化评价框架等结论。