前向关联测度---基于中国各省投入产出表分析

介绍了Leontief模型和Ghosh模型前向关联的测度方法,利用中国2002年各省市投入产出表测度并比较了各种前向关联。无论是Leontief模型还是Ghosh模型,间接关联对前对各部门的排序影响不大。规模因素对Leontief模型中的虚拟消去前向关联的排序影响较小而对Ghosh模型中的虚拟消去法影响较大。各种前向关联存在一定程度的相关性,大多数前向关联相关性较高。资源型部门的前向关联较大,而具有比较优势部门的前向关联一般较小。     

Trade Flows Versus Capital Flows: Are China’s Trade Surpluses Overestimated?

China has received massive foreign capital inflows after experiencing capital flight earlier in the last decade. The present paper offers estimates of capital inflows into China through the misinvoicing of trade after having outlined a model describing how trade prices could be manipulated by firms. In fact, the widely perceived undervalued Yuan has fueled expectations of a future revaluation of the Chinese currency. In a panel gravity modeling framework, we show that, China’s export and import prices for some commodities are sensitive to the non-deliverable forward exchange rate for the RMB in Hong Kong. In light of the evolution of this rate, which has rather systemically reflected anticipated revaluation of the Chinese currency, it is contended that the persistent Chinese trade imbalances may actually camouflage hidden ‘hot money’ inflows. Our findings provide evidence for export over-invoicing and import under-invoicing.     

Strong Belief and Forward Induction Reasoning

We provide a unified epistemic analysis of some forward-induction solution concepts in games with complete and incomplete information. We suggest that forward induction reasoning may be usefully interpreted as a set of assumptions governing the players' belief revision processes, and define a notion of strong belief to formalize these assumptions. Building on the notion of strong belief, we provide an epistemic characterization of extensive-form rationalizability and the intuitive criterion, as well as sufficient epistemic conditions for the backward induction outcome in generic games with perfect information. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72, D82.     

Multiperiod Strip Hedging of Forward Commitments

This paper empirically compares two multiperiod hedging strategies—a strip hedge and a stack-and-roll hedge—to hedge a forward commitment. The multiperiod strip hedge is found to outperform the stack-and-roll hedge when forward prices are subject to multiple sources of price uncertainty and to perform no better when only one source of uncertainty is present. Moreover, the relative superiority of the strip hedge increases with the presence of multiple sources of uncertainty. Last, the strip hedge is found to be more costly to trade than the stack-and-roll hedge; however, its cost varies directly with its superiority at reducing risk.     

Efficient Calibration of Trinomial Trees for One-Factor Short Rate Models

In this paper we propose a computationally efficient implementation of general one factor short rate models with a trinomial tree. We improve the Hull–Whites procedure to calibrate the tree to bond prices by circumventing the forward rate induction and numerical root search algorithms. Our calibration procedure is based on forward measure changes and is as general as the Hull–White procedure, but it offers a more efficient and flexible method of constructing a trinomial term structure model. It can be easily implemented and calibrated to both prices and volatilities. JEL classification G13, C6     

The Unbiasedness Hypothesis in the Freight Forward Market: Evidence from Cointegration Tests

The current paper investigates the unbiasedness hypothesis of Forward Freight Agreement (FFA) prices in the freight over-the-counter (OTC) forward market trades. Cointegration techniques are employed to examine the hypothesis. The results indicate that: FFA prices one and two months before maturity are unbiased predictors of the realised spot freight rates for all investigated shipping routes; three months FFA prices for panamax Pacific routes are unbiased predictors of spot prices, while FFA prices for panamax Atlantic routes are found to be biased predictors of spot prices. This diverse evidence suggests that the validity of the unbiasedness hypothesis depends on the specific characteristics of the market under investigation, the selected trading route and the time to maturity of the contract. JEL classification G13, G14, C32     

一次对旅游前沿课题的审题研究

在中国旅游业的发展中,在中国学者对旅游科学的研究中,有哪些课题是人们公认的前沿课 。一个业界,学界和管理层官员都一致关注的重心。本文根据北京旅游学院旅游科学研究所和《旅游学刊》编辑部最近联合撰写的这一研究的研究报告,将日前在北京召开的这次别出心裁的研讨会的成果及一些学者的有关反映作一扼要的概述。     

安徽跨越式发展的政府监管考量

安徽跨越式发展不仅有赖于各项经济政策,还有赖于高效的政府监管;省级政府监管重点在于扶持和培育市场。地方经济体跨越式发展必须充分注意政府适度监管这个重要考量。     

生态旅游的基础性研究

世界范围的生态旅游活动在经历了近30年的发展后，即将进入一个辉煌阶段。中国生态旅游业的发展在近10年来也十分迅速，但对比世界上其他国家的成功范例，还存在一些问题。解决这些问题最根本的方法就是加强基础性工作。必须科学地集训生态旅游，推进生态旅游的法制管理和总体规划，建立一整套的组织保障体系。在开展生态旅游活动时，应持认真谨慎的态度，既不可操之过急，亦不能自由放任，要有节奏地、阶段式地推进，以保证此项活动健康地发展。     

用远期中性概率测度给固定收益衍生品定价研究

基于风险中性测度在一些衍生证券定价中的复杂性,提出一种新的测度变换方法——远期中性概率测度。在该测度基础上,构造鞅过程可以对一些固定收益衍生品定价,进一步给出零息债券的欧式期权、利率上限期权的定价公式。