ON THE DYBVIG‐INGERSOLL‐ROSS THEOREM

The Dybvig‐Ingersoll‐Ross (DIR) theorem states that, in arbitrage‐free term structure models, long‐term yields and forward rates can never fall. We present a refined version of the DIR theorem, where we identify the reciprocal of the maturity date as the maximal order that long‐term rates at earlier dates can dominate long‐term rates at later dates. The viability assumption imposed on the market model is weaker than those appearing previously in the literature.     

Analytical and Empirical Comparison of Policy-Relevant Key Sector Measures

Abstract

We consider the 10 most salient key sector measures (linkages) and identify groups of the most similar indicators on both analytical and empirical grounds. We derive new closed-form formulas for the generalized complete and partial hypothetical extraction linkages and add the up-till-now-undefined forward counterpart of the net backward linkage. The analytical relations and some stylized facts enable us to formulate hypotheses about the direction and strength of the relationships between various linkages. To study policy-relevant measures, our empirical tests are based on income (GDP) linkages, CO₂ emission linkages and employment linkages for 34 industries and 33 countries. The data show that the information on the 10 key sector measures may be summarized by three to at most four measures.     

基于零售商观点的正向和逆向物流比较

给出了正向和逆向物流的定义,从产生逆向物流的企业即零售商的角度,分析了产品的逆向流动及其存在的问题,从多个方面详细比较了物流系统正向和逆向物流的差异,指出了企业的供应链位置决定了这些差异对其决策和选择的影响,为企业和管理者解决现实逆向物流问题提供了一些有益建议。     

Recent approaches to estimating Engel curves

Classical approaches of estimating cross-section Engel curves are based on parametric models. However, misspecification of a parametric model implies that information of structural nature might be masked. An alternative avoiding problems related to predetermined functional relations is the nonparametric approach. This paper surveys recent advances of nonparametric statistics in their relevance to estimating cross-section Engel curves.     

Changing patterns of UK poverty, 1997 2004

It has been noted that the failure to meet the target set bythe government for reducing the head count ratio of child povertyin Britain is partly due to the success of government policyin generating economic growth. Apart from ignoring the argumentthat absolute poverty is not a meaningful idea, this apologyfor the failure of government to meet poverty targets also misseswider problems embedded in recent trends in the household incomedistribution. For example, inequality measures sensitive tothe distribution of income amongst the poor suggest that theexperience of those who remained poor may have worsened.     

Exchange Rate Instability: Japan''''s Micro-Macro Experiences and Implications for China

I. Introduction Japan’s failure to adjust the undervalued yen in the late 1960s and early 1970s invited a highly unstable yen-dollar exchange rate. The result was the weakening of Japan’s industrial base and decade-long structural stagnation. Japanese industries had to struggle for survival. Based on my experience as financial officer of Itochu Corporation, this paper is organized as follows: Section II explains why and how the yen kept appreciating. Section III studies the responses of…     

CURRENT STATISTICAL ISSUES IN AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH

Four topics, selected from the range of statistical subjects with current relevance for agricultural research are considered. The first is concerned with the need and usefulness of efficient incomplete block designs for any number of treatments, either equireplicate or with different number of replicates. The second one is a presentation of linear prediction procedures for phenomena with spatially random behaviour and its generalization towards kriging. Next, a reparametrization of a general four–parameter family of growth curves is recommended, leading to numerically stable parameter estimation for RICHARDS' functions and additional special cases. Finally, the modelling of factorials with continuous response and of log–linear relationships for frequencies is proposed to be handled on the same footing, with preference for an alternative criteria of model deviance over test critera or C_p–like measures.     

Firms' Cost Functions: A Reconstruction

Three empirical stylized facts characterize afirm's cost functions: AVC is generallyhorizontal; scale economies are often important;and capital usage (as well as labor usage)varies with the rate of output. In contrast ourstandard theory of diminishing marginalproducts, variable proportions, and U-shapedunit cost curves does not adequately reflectthese stylized facts of industrial reality. Explicit distinction between capital stocks andcapital flows allows a remodeling of a firm'scost curves to conform with these empirical facts.     

Why do Japanese giant trading companies prefer foreign currency to Japanese yen?: A supplementary note

This note extends the Chen and Chiang (1992) analysis to examine the possibility that trades may be denominated in the currency of the third country. Two main conclusions are found in this note. First, the quantities of trade and employment are still invariant to invoicing strategies chosen. Second, the currency of the trading partner may not be chosen by the monopolistic trader.     

Testing the unbiasedness hypothesis of foreign exchange rates and the analysis of transformations

Recent researchers have utilized various functional forms for testing the hypothesis that the forward rate is an unbiased predictor of future spot rates in foreign exchange markets. We compare a large number of these functional forms for a similar time period and test their consistency with the data for five major currencies. Our results imply that certain functional form models may be inappropriate for some currencies. Researchers must, therefore, be cautious of misspecification due to erroneous functional forms when testing the unbiased forward rate hypothesis.