境内人民币远期与NDF汇率关系

对2006年8月11日至2009年11月30日1月期、3月期、6月期和12月期的远期汇率进行统计和计量分析后发现:金融危机后,境内人民币远期汇率与NDF汇率的总体波动性有所降低,人民币远期汇率弹性有所下降;境内人民币远期市场的定价能力提高主要体现在短期限品种NDF汇率对于境内人民币远期汇率单向引导关系减弱,而二者的相互引导关系增强;长期限品种NDF汇率对于境内人民币远期汇率的引导关系不变。因此后金融危机时期一方面要防范国际资本和政治经济压力对中国汇率的冲击,同时也要择机有序退出临时性汇率安排,稳步推进人民币汇率形成机制改革。     

论我国企业家管理哲学思想的更新与超越

本文结合企业实际情况，从三个方面提出企业家管理哲学思想的更新与超越：一是对我国传统政治哲学思想的反思与批判；二是企业家如何管理人才、留住人才，发展企业：三是企业家如何克服自身的人性弱点。这几个方面的问题解决得好，企业的跨越式发展才有思想观念上的支持。     

湿地系统的流域湿地保护与利用

流域湿地作为湿地系统研究领域的一个重要分支,已引起了越来越多的学者和专家的广泛重视和研究。基于流域和湿地的概念对其进行了阐述,并通过总结诸多国内外在该领域的研究成果,探讨了流域湿地的特征、功能、开发与利用及存在的主要问题、研究热点及前沿问题等,为有关管理部门对流域湿地资源的综合利用与保护提供理论支撑。     

ROBUST BOUNDS FOR FORWARD START OPTIONS

We consider the problem of finding a model‐free upper bound on the price of a forward start straddle with payoff . The bound depends on the prices of vanilla call and put options with maturities T₁ and T₂ , but does not rely on any modeling assumptions concerning the dynamics of the underlying. The bound can be enforced by a super‐replicating strategy involving puts, calls, and a forward transaction. We find an upper bound, and a model which is consistent with T₁ and T₂ vanilla option prices for which the model‐based price of the straddle is equal to the upper bound. This proves that the bound is best possible. For lognormal marginals we show that the upper bound is at most 30% higher than the Black–Scholes price. The problem can be recast as finding the solution to a Skorokhod embedding problem with nontrivial initial law so as to maximize .     

中国高技术产业重心与经济重心变动轨迹比较

高技术产业是国民经济中重要的战略性先导产业。文章借鉴并运用经济重心研究方法对中国高技术产业及国民经济整体空间分布格局演化做了系统研究,通过刻画和比较分析我国1995--2009年高技术产业重心和经济重心变动轨迹,发现我国高技术产业空间分布不平衡,特别是东西横向不均衡程度加剧,高技术产业对国民经济整体发展影响有限,提出有必要加大对我国高技术产业的政策扶持力度和区域经济均衡发展调整力度,实现高技术产业带动下的我国国民经济全面协调可持续的科学发展。     

期货经纪公司发展对外部环境的要求

期货经纪公司的外部环境最重要的在于立法与监管、交易对象、交易主体。应增强法规的适应性 ,及时追踪期货市场的创新 ;积极扩展期货品种 ,立足商品期货 ,开拓金融期货 ;努力培养市场交易主体 ,以形成期货市场投资主体多元化     

Environmental Kuznets Curves for Air Pollutant Emissions in Italy: Evidence from Environmental Accounts (NAMEA) Panel Data

This paper provides new empirical evidence on delinking and Environmental Kuznets Curves (EKC) for greenhouse gases and other air pollutant emissions in Italy. A panel dataset based on the Italian NAMEA (National Accounts Matrix including Environmental Accounts) for 1990–2001 is analysed. The highly disaggregated dataset (29 production branches, 12 years and nine air emissions) provides a large heterogeneity and can help to overcome the shortcomings of the usual approach to EKC based on cross-country data. Both value added and capital stock per employee are used as alternative drivers for analysing sectoral NAMEA emissions. Trade openness at the same sectoral level is also introduced among the covariates. We find mixed evidence supporting the EKC hypothesis. The analysis of NAMEA-based data shows that some of the pollutants such as two greenhouse gases (CO₂ and CH₄) and CO, produce inverted U-shaped curves with coherent within-range turning points. Other pollutants (SO_X, NO_X, PM₁₀) show a monotonic or even N-shaped relationship. Macro sectoral disaggregated analysis highlights that the aggregated outcome should hide some heterogeneity across different groups of production branches (industry, manufacturing only and services). Services tend to present an inverted N-shape in most cases. Manufacturing industry shows a mix of inverted U and N-shapes, depending on the emission considered. The same is true for industry (all industries, not only manufacturing): although a turning point has been experienced, N-shapes may lead to increased emissions with respect to very high levels of the economic driver. In general, EKC evidence is more pronounced for greenhouse gases. The results suggest that analysis at macro sector (whole industry, manufacturing only and services) can be the most promising approach to future research on EKC.     

Do demand curves for stocks slope down?: Evidence from aggregate data

We examine whether the aggregate demand curve for stocks is downward sloping. As a proxy for aggregate demand, we use net outflows (dividends plus repurchases less net issues) from the stock market scaled by the previous year's market capitalization. To disentangle the information and price pressure effects from the demand curve effects, we use an information-free demographic variable as an instrument and look at the relation between annual changes in aggregate demand and excess market return. We find that information-free changes in the annual aggregate demand for stocks do not lead to changes in the annual excess market return. This finding supports long-term horizontal demand curves for stocks.     

远期结售汇业务发展现状及政策建议

随着人民币汇率弹性的逐步增强,汇率风险的防范问题已日显重要,外汇衍生品市场的发展继而成为我们关注的焦点。文章介绍了湖北省远期结售汇业务的发展现状及成因,从供求关系、交易方式等角度分析了当前制约业务发展的因素,并从鼓励金融创新和进一步完善汇率形成机制的角度,提出相应的市场发展建议。