全球价值链分工的利益来源:比较优势、规模优势和价格倾斜优势

20世纪80年代以来,全球价值链分工逐渐成为国际分工的重要趋势。由于全球价值链分工涉及中间品的进口,又涉及最终产品的出口,就产生了“分工利益”和“贸易利益”。分工后的比较优势、规模优势属于“分工利益”,而“价格倾斜”优势属于“贸易利益”。由此可以得出结论,最发达国家能从分工中获取“分工利益”和“贸易利益”,而落后国家在获取“分工利益”的同时“贸易利益”可能受损。     

Bayesian and Bühlmann credibility for phase-type distributions with a univariate risk parameter

Credibility theory is a statistical tool to calculate the premium for the next period based on past claims experience and the manual rate. Each contract is characterized by a risk parameter. A phase-type (or PH) random variable, which is defined as the time until absorption in a continuous-time Markov chain, is fully characterized by two sets of parameters from that Markov chain: the initial probability vector and transition intensity matrix. In this article, we identify an interpretable univariate risk parameter from amongst the many candidate parameters, by means of uniformization. The resulting density form is then expressed as an infinite mixture of Erlang distributions. These results are used to obtain a tractable likelihood function by a recursive formula. Then the best estimator for the next premium, i.e. the Bayesian premium, as well as its approximation by the Bühlmann credibility premium are calculated. Finally, actuarial calculations for the Bühlmann and Bayesian premiums are investigated in the context of a gamma prior, and illustrated by simulated data in a series of examples.     

A critique of high-value supply chains as a means of modernising agriculture in China: The case of the beef industry

China has embarked on an agricultural modernisation program with far-reaching implications for rural development, food safety and trade. A major focus of China’s agricultural modernisation program has been to build high-value supply chains and large, modern agro-industrial enterprises. This paper provides a critique of these efforts in the case of the high-value beef supply chain. It finds that interventionist policies to fast-track the development of high-value supply chains have perverse outcomes and that a more incremental and facilitative approach to modernisation should be pursued based around the development of mid-value supply chains.     

产业链视角下的网络游戏知识产权保护

知识产权作为网络游戏的核心价值，贯穿网络游戏开发、运营到衍生品二次开发的各个环节，同时各个环节上的知识产权问题构成网络游戏产业健康快速发展的严重阻碍。网络游戏产业要加强知识产权保护意识、健全知识产权管理体系、完善知识产权保护法律并加强行业自律。     

Global Value Chains and Effective Exchange Rates at the Country‐Sector Level

The real effective exchange rate (REER) is one of the most cited statistics in open‐economy macroeconomics. We show that the models used to compute these numbers are not rich enough to allow for the rising importance of global value chains. Moreover, because different sectors within a country participate in international production sharing at different stages, sector‐level variations are also important for determining competitiveness. Incorporating these features, we develop a framework to compute REER at both the sector and country level and apply it on intercountry input‐output tables to study the properties of the new measures.     

Supermarket self-checkout usage in the United States

While some retailers have installed more self-service checkouts, others have removed them. A possible explanation is that their customer profiles differ. Previous research provides an incomplete or inconsistent picture of self-checkout users. This study uses an Internet survey of 605 adults to explore sociodemographic and attitude linkages with supermarket self-checkout interest. Interest in self-checkouts was negatively linked with age and with technological anxiety. Risk tolerance may also influence interest. Retailers should examine their current and future customer ages when considering self-checkout installations. Technology upgrades that reduce customer anxiety and decrease potential embarrassment about using self-checkouts may increase use.     

中美贸易摩擦对中国参与区域价值链的重构效应

基于贸易增加值视角,以《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)为对象,研究中美贸易摩擦对中国参与区域价值链的重构效应。首先运用沃姆斯利(Walmsley)动态递归方法更新全球贸易分析模型的基准数据库,然后运用全球贸易分析模型与库普曼(Koopman)等的贸易增加值分解模型的链接方法,分解中美加征关税对全球价值链和区域价值链的影响,从区域价值链视角出发评估贸易摩擦的经济效应。结果发现:从国家层面看,贸易摩擦对中国参与全球价值链负面影响颇为严重,却深化了中国参与区域价值链的程度,主要归因于直接贸易规模性转移与间接产业分工格局调整两个方面;从产业层面看,贸易摩擦对中国不同行业部门参与区域价值链的影响存在较强的异质性。总体而言,对不同行业的区域价值链均呈现促进效应,但电子产业增长相对较高,其次是汽车业、纺织业,原因在于不同行业参与全球价值链的程度截然不同。     

Sino-US trade balance from national income perspective and global income chains

ABSTRACT

Trade volume biases trade benefits under the background of economic globalization. Employing the input-output technique, important progress has been made in research on trade in value-added. It is noteworthy that capital globalization is one of the important manifestations of economic globalization. Owing to the ever-increasing transnational flow of capital, mainly by foreign direct investment (FDI), production of exports shows great dependence on foreign capital. A large part of value-added in exports are obtained by foreign factors owners, since foreign-invested enterprises account for a large proportion in host country’s total exports, which is foreign income. The ultimate goal of trade is to boost national income. We propose to study trade benefits and trade balance from national income perspective, and further introduce the concept of global income chains to reveal economic benefits distribution within international specialization.     

What drives market construction for fair trade,organic, and GlobalGAP certification in the global citrus value chain? Evidence at the importer level in the Netherlands and the United States

Because national governments have limited power to regulate the conditions of production abroad, voluntary certification schemes have come to play a significant role in transnational regulation of many global supply chains, particularly in the food sector, where multiple regulatory issues are in play and different certification schemes compete. However, we still know relatively little about the political-economic factors that shape the construction of certified citrus markets for these competing standards. Based on an original dataset from a comparative survey of US and Dutch importers, this paper investigates factors that shape the construction of certification markets for citrus, focusing on the construction of markets for different kinds of certification schemes including Fair Trade, Organic, and GlobalGAP certification. The paper investigates from a comparative perspective whether the construction of markets differs across the US and Dutch political economies. The results show both the enduring effects of national political economies and the importance of global value chain dynamics. Across competing schemes, the industry-sponsored business-to-business certification systems have outcompeted consumer-facing label systems.     

Organizational form as a solution to the problem of credible commitment: The evolution of naming strategies among U.S. hotel chains, 1896–1980

This paper describes how organizational form can solve the problem of commitment that complicates exchange. I illustrate this by analyzing the commitment problem of hotel chains. Consideration of the commitment problem indicates that hotel chains are better off naming their units the same, so as to create the potential for future business from customers. However, some hoteliers believed units should be named differently so they are not identified with the chain. These two strategies illustrate a powerful tension between strategies that allow the organization to be more consistent, and strategies that facilitate adaptation to local conditions. I analyze the failure rates of hotel chains to show that selection favored chains that employed the naming strategy that generates commitment.