Is it the economic policy,stupid? Economic policy,political parties & the gubernatorial incumbent advantage

Incumbent politicians have a well-known advantage in seeking re-election. Using the Economic Freedom of North America dataset, we examine how changes in economic policy during an incumbent governor's tenure influence the probability of losing their re-election bid. Put simply, does economic policy matter for the incumbent advantage? The results suggest that a decrease in economic freedom increases the probability of an incumbent loss, regardless of the governor's party. A decomposition analysis indicates that these results are primarily driven by the government spending sub-index. Furthermore, a more granular analysis suggests that: (1) increases in government consumption spending and government employment are associated with a lower probability of re-election among Democratic incumbent governors, but a higher probability among Republicans; (2) increases in transfer payments relative to personal income reduce the likelihood of re-election, regardless of party; and (3) among Republican incumbents, increases of income taxation and of top marginal tax rates are associated with a higher and lower, respectively, probability of losing re-election. Finally, controlling for a variety of demographic, political and socioeconomic factors, we find that high unemployment increases the probability that an incumbent loses re-election, while increasing net population migration reduces it.     

Probability theory in fuzzy sample spaces

This paper tries to develop a neat and comprehensive probability theory for sample spaces where the events are fuzzy subsets of The investigations are focussed on the discussion how to equip those sample spaces with suitable -algebras and metrics. In the end we can point out a unified concept of random elements in the sample spaces under consideration which is linked with compatible metrics to express random errors. The result is supported by presenting a strong law of large numbers, a central limit theorem and a Glivenko-Cantelli theorem for these kinds of random elements, formulated simultaneously w.r.t. the selected metrics. As a by-product the line of reasoning, which is followed within the paper, enables us to generalize as well as to bring together already known results and concepts from literature.Acknowledgement. The author would like to thank the participants of the 23rd Linz Seminar on Fuzzy Set Theory for the intensive discussion of the paper. Especially he is indebted to Professors Diamond and Höhle whose remarks have helped to get deeper insights into the subject. Additionally, the author is grateful to one anonymous referee for careful reading and valuable proposals which have led to an improvement of the first draft.This paper was presented at the 23rd Linz Seminar on Fuzzy Set Theory, Linz, Austria, February 5–9, 2002.     

关于基本经济制度的三点探索

党的十六大重申社会主义初级阶段的基本经济制度,不仅再次肯定公有制为主体,并且把多种所有制经济包括私营经济也纳入,是对传统理论的一大突破。这是从现阶段的实际出发,有着多样的现实条件。强调两个\"毫不动摇\",澄清了不同看法,其结果很可能形成混合经济居大的格局:宏观上是多种所有制经济并存,微观上是产权多元化的股份制公司为典型。坚持和完善基本经济制度,有一系列的对策,除深化国有、集体企业改革和鼓励、支持、引导非公有制经济发展外,令人想起毛泽东曾经讲过的四句话:\"公私兼顾、劳资两利、城乡互助、内外交流\"。     

经济转型国家与资本外逃

中央集权的计划经济国家在经济体制转向市场经济的过程中普遍存在着资本外逃的问题,作为经济转型的成本之一,资本外逃加剧了转型国家宏观经济的不稳定,延长了经济转型过程中的阵痛期。回顾有关资本外逃和经济转型文献,从体制转型的角度剖析转型国家资本外逃的深层次原因,就如何防范、减少资本外逃提出相应的对策建议。     

交易成本、禀赋效应与国有股权转让定价——兼论国有企业混合所有制改革的新思路

国有企业混合所有制改革是积极发展混合所有制经济的关键,完善的定价机制有助于推进国有企业混合所有制改革。国有股转让过程中存在大量的交易成本,扭曲了定价体系。基于科斯定理,可以发现,明晰产权是优化定价体系有效途径。但是,禀赋效应的存在,使得科斯定理无法完全解决国有股转让定价问题。对此,需要采取市场和非市场的政策组合,以此来完善国有股转让定价机制,推进国有企业混合所有制改革。     

论《国际商事合同通则》在CISG解释中的运用——以根本违约的解释为例

在相同或类似事项上,《国际商事合同通则》规定往往比《联合国国际货物买卖合同公约》的规定更加具体、成熟并具有可操作性。基于《公约》与《通则》“尽量维护国际贸易中合同的履行性”这一共同宗旨,可以运用《通则》的相关条文对《公约》根本违约的认定标准进行解释,从而确保国际贸易双方当事人对争议解决结果的可预见性。