Development,distribution and the future

The distribution of world output between countries, and between social groups within countries, is central to long-term development prospects. Unequal shares mean unequal influence over the future direction of world affairs. The level and structure of demand are conditioned by the distribution of financial resources; while the power to influence the course of development is itself tied to the resources that can be marshalled in support of one's objectives. Two forecasting techniques, scenario construction and global modelling, are used to assess these relationships and explore the consequences of one possible ‘future history’ in which distribution worldwide does eventually begin to improve. Striking limitations to most development strategies are identified; without a wide-ranging set of changes, the prospects for improved distribution—and relief of poverty—are bleak.     

The argument for more future-oriented planning

Planning, and practically all forms of decisionmaking, are concerned with the future. The future, unless we adopt deterministic philosophies, is uncertain and therefore difficult to plan for. Through the processes of change it is likely to be different from the past; existing and past knowledge and experience are only a partial guide to decisionmaking. The inclusion of a future dimension based on careful thought about possible future development offers a new tool to the decisionmaker that should not be overlooked.     

The sociologist as social architect: A new task for macro-sociology?

The theme of voluntarism and determinism is revisited, here in the context of forecasting for futurists. Although fraught with danger the use of scenarios is vital in a world of rapid change, in which people are more than ever aware of the choices open to them and the ways they are able to determine their own future. The author proposes that a merger between the approaches of the sociologist and the futurist could aid our understanding of social futures. The outcome is a ‘design sociology’ based on six key concepts.     

Work and nonwork : Europe in the 1980s and beyond

Through an understanding of major trends in employment, unemployment and informal work and in patterns of life, possible alternative futures in work and nonwork may be identified. Communications and information technologies (IT) may themselves transform the recent transformations in work and nonwork, and already disadvantaged groups may further suffer unless fully involved in the policy processes relating to IT and its products.     

Market Reaction to Multiple Contemporaneous Earnings Signals: Earnings Announcements and Future Earnings Guidance

We examine market reactions to contemporaneous announcements of current earnings and future earnings guidance for evidence on how investors trade off relevance and reliability. Current earnings are more reliable than future earnings guidance, but future earnings guidance may be more relevant for predicting future performance. We find that current earnings are more strongly associated with announcement-period returns than concurrently disclosed future earnings guidance, consistent with investors’ relative preference for reliability. We find similar return reactions to stand-alone earnings and to earnings released with guidance. In contrast, return reactions are lower for guidance announced simultaneously with current earnings than for stand-alone guidance.     

入世十周年中国外贸:质变、驱动因素及趋势

中国加入世界贸易组织10年来,贸易额在取得巨量增长的同时,贸易结构方面发生了5个显著的质变。入世效应、强势贸易政策、量增价升、自由贸易区网络、外贸体制改革是其中5个最为重要的原因。"十二五"时期,要从6个方面不断拓展对外开放广度和深度,提高开放型经济水平。     

The Friedman Rule in a Model with Endogenous Growth and Cash‐in‐Advance Constraint

This paper introduces money into an overlapping‐generations model with endogenous growth. The main message of the paper is that as long as the modified golden rule is attained, the Friedman rule is optimal. The result holds regardless of the ability of the government to internalize the externality and control the level of human capital. Other results include: (i) violation of the Friedman rule for a different second‐best environment wherein human capital accumulation is controlled but not physical capital accumulation and (ii) existence of a negative relationship between money growth rate and the economy’s endogenous growth rate.     

Mapping themes in the study of new work practices

Both shaping and shaped by technological, economic and social facets, the world of work has witnessed a wide array of changes. This review article sets out to provide a synthesis of some of the main directions and insights of existing research connected to the new world of work. In particular, we approached the topic of new work practices through four key dimensions: (1) Conceptual and methodological dimensions in the study of new work practices; (2) Spatial and temporal manifestations of new work practices in the collaborative economy; (3) Individuals, organizations and new work configurations; (4) Power and control. The review article critically discusses the future of work and argues that the ‘new’ world of work simply repeats asymmetrical power relations and inequalities that characterise work activities, with the potential of exacerbating even further disparities, inequalities and precarity.     

Is all turnover intent the same? Exploring future job preference and environmental considerations

This study approaches turnover intent in a novel way by incorporating both environmental and internal organizational factors together to create a more nuanced view of what drives turnover. The analytical focus is on senior-level employees in four agencies within the US Department of Health and Human Services. The findings show that internal organizational factors partially explain decisions to change jobs, but agency and time differences remain even after controlling for those factors. It also finds that the decision to leave government is driven by different factors than the decision to move to other jobs within government.     

The effects of anticipated goal‐inconsistent behavior on present goal choices

Prior work has examined how, in the pursuit of long‐term goals, past goal behavior influences present goal choices. Instead, the present work focuses on how anticipating future goal behavior, specifically future goal‐inconsistent behavior, influences present goal choices. For example, how anticipating overspending on an upcoming vacation influences current spending behavior. The authors propose that the effect of anticipated goal‐inconsistent behavior on present goal choice is moderated by the perceived changeability of the future behavior. When future goal‐inconsistent behavior is perceived as changeable, consumers tend to imagine it away, and it has no systematic effect on present goal choices. However, when future goal‐inconsistent behavior is perceived as unchangeable, consumers accept it as a matter of fact, and systematic effects occur. Specifically, some consumers not only fail to buffer against future goal‐inconsistent behavior's negative consequences, but tend to exacerbate those consequences by increasing their goal‐inconsistent behavior in the present. Four studies examine this surprising behavior, using an individual difference (the response‐to‐failure scale) to identify when and for whom it occurs. The studies demonstrate the role of perceived changeability using various manipulations across multiple critical goal domains such as spending, eating, and academics.