Pandemic (COVID‐19) Policy,Regional Cooperation and the Emerging Global Production Network†

In this paper, we explore the possible policy responses to the COVID‐19 pandemic shock as well as the related economic (financial crisis) shocks on trade and global value chains (GVC) in East Asia. We find that regional policy coordination is critical to mitigate and isolate the pandemic shock. It is important to identify the pandemic events early to flatten the pandemic curve at the national and regional level. This supports a recent study by the World Bank (2020), which highlights the importance of early mitigation policies during the pandemic shock. The cost of the pandemic and economic shocks will increase significantly when several countries in the region experience the pandemic shock concurrently. In this case, flattening the regional pandemic curve becomes important. The results also indicate the need for greater coordination in East Asia to mitigate the pending economic shock in terms of unemployment, corporate bankruptcy and financial market fragility. The paper also highlights that the stability of the GVC network is critical during the pandemic in terms of hedging the risk of disruptions to the procurement of critical medical and health products as well as maintaining service linkages to manufacturing, such as the logistics sector. Regional policy coordination and the stability of GVC will be valuable in the post‐pandemic recovery of the region.     

基于全局主成分-聚类分析的城市创新生态系统评价——以中国19个重点城市为例

基于19个重点城市创新要素实际,构建创新环境、创新支付、创新动能、发展趋势、开放水平5个维度20个指标的城市创新生态系统评价指标体系,根据2017-2019年数据,应用全局主成分模型提取主成分和计算得分,并进行聚类分析。研究发现：创新环境与创新支付影响显著;各城市重视程度提高,但得分差距拉大;城市间差异明显,各有优势。由此建议提升创新环境品质、建立全生态创新系统、培育城市创新动能、促进跨区域创新系统协同发展。     

Global and Euro Imbalances： China and Germany

We analyze global and euro area imbalances by focusing on China and Germany as large surplus and creditor countries. In the 2000s, domestic reforms expanded the effective labor force, restrained wages, shifted income toward profits and increased corporate saving. As a result, the Chinese and German current account surpluses widened, and that of Germany has proven more persistent, with subdued domestic investment. China is an early-stage creditor, holding a short equity position and a longposition in safe debt. Germany＇s balanced net debt and equity claims mark it as a mature creditor thatprovides insurance to the rest of the world. China pays to lay off equity risk, while Germany, by contrast, harvests a moderate yield on its net claims. In both economies, the shortfall of the net international investment position from cumulated current account surpluses arises from exchange rate changes, asymmetric valuation gains, and, in Germany＇s case, credit losses.     

Corporate Cash Holding in Asia

In this paper, we analyze the determinants of corporate saving in the form of changes in cash holdings for 11 Asian economies using firm‐level data from the Oriana Database for the 2002–2011 period. We find some evidence that cash flow has a positive impact on the change in cash holdings (i.e. that the cash flow sensitivity of cash is positive) and that the positive impact of cash flow on the change in cash holdings is larger and more significant in the case of smaller and presumably more constrained firms than in the case of larger and presumably less constrained firms in both developed and developing economies. Both of these findings corroborate the importance of financial constraints in Asian firms. In addition, we find that the cash flow sensitivity of cash declined after the global financial crisis and that Tobin's q has a positive impact on the change in cash holdings, especially in the case of larger and presumably unconstrained firms.     

Spillovers in Exchange Rates and the Effects of Global Shocks on Emerging Market Currencies

This paper provides an investigation into the spillover effects of exchange rate returns and volatility for developed and emerging market currencies, using data from 1997 to 2011. The results suggest that spillovers in exchange rate returns have increased steadily over time, in moderate reaction to economic events. In contrast, spillovers in total observed volatility (measured by squared returns) react more strongly to economic events, and this transmission has remained at a relatively high level since the global financial crisis. Furthermore, over the course of time, global shocks would appear to account for a larger proportion of aggregate exchange rate volatility (and the relative importance of domestic shocks has declined). The paper also considers whether the increase in volatility spillover is due to sudden shocks, or whether it is due to changes in the stochastic trend of the underlying volatility process. The results suggests that in most cases, this increase is due to sudden shocks, however, in certain instances country‐specific events may perpetuate changes to the trend of the underlying volatility spillover.     

新时期农民工回流问题研究

当前,受全球金融危机的影响,我国出现了近几十年来罕见的农民工回流现象。文章运用CES经济增长模型对新形势下农民工回流问题进行实证分析,发现城市产出水平、城市工资水平、资本价格、农村收入、农村劳动力外出打工付出的成本、城市失业劳动力总量等是影响农民工回流的主要因素,并提出了解决农民工回流问题的针对性措施。     

Renminbi＇s Potential to Become a Global Currency

This paper is a tentative endeavor to delineate the potential of the renminbi to become a global currency. It first analyzes the critical economic, financial and policy attributes that are required to support a currency to gain an international role. It then examines whether China has the potential to acquire these attributes. The paper concludes by offering some provisional observations on the implications for Asia and the global economy, should the renminbi evolve into a world currency in the coming decades.     

基于全球价值链的山东加工贸易升级影响因素实证研究

根据国际分工理论和全球价值链理论可知,加工贸易升级的方向是提升其在全球价值链上的分工地位。采用回归分析法对山东加工贸易在全球价值链上升级的影响因素实证分析发现,产业结构对山东加工贸易升级推动作用明显,而资本投入和实际利用外资贡献不足,劳动力投入和技术进步的作用不显著。因此,推动加工贸易升级要优化投资结构和引资结构,注重人力资本投入、鼓励企业自主创新,重视技术进步成果在生产经营中的推广应用。     

基于全局熵值法的长三角区域创新能力评价

创新是经济和产业发展的驱动力,区域创新能力的评价研究是识别区域创新能力的重要途径和方法。通过建立区域创新能力评价指标体系,采用全局熵值法,利用全局思想对2016—2020年长三角区域创新能力进行动态评价。分析发现,长三角各区域创新能力差距较大,存在区域创新发展不平衡问题。分析各区域创新能力结构变化发现创新产出和创新成效为长三角区域创新能力短板。未来可从创新产出和创新成效突破口入手,着力提升各区域创新能力,促进长三角区域创新发展趋于平衡。     

绿色信贷对股份制商业银行经营绩效的影响

基于全局主成分分析法,以11家股份制银行2009—2021年的数据为样本,研究在单一银行类别里绿色信贷对银行经营绩效的影响,并运用固定效应模型进一步验证。结果表明,总体上绿色信贷有利于银行经营绩效的提升。分阶段看,从初期到过渡期,绿色信贷对银行经营绩效的影响先正后负;远期绿色信贷对银行经营绩效仍呈正向影响,但由于相关配套机制不健全等原因,正向影响的幅度并不突出,这是导致目前绿色信贷发展不足的原因。