Co-movement among oil,stock, bond,and housing markets: An analysis of U.S., Asian,and European economies

This study explores the co-movement among oil and the stock, bond, and housing markets of the U.S. and major developed countries across Europe and Asia. The results indicate that oil is long-run integrated with each asset class, and that the extent of convergence has increased after the onset of the 2007–2009 global financial crisis (GFC). Moreover, oil contributes most heavily toward the common trends, implying that oil is the “leader” sector that drives each asset class toward long-run equilibrium relationships. Short-run analyses indicate that oil shocks induce a negative response in stock and housing returns and a positive reaction in bond returns, showing a tendency to become more intense and persistent after the GFC. When oil shocks are disentangled, the results indicate that supply and demand have heterogeneous effects on the three global asset classes. Over the long-run, demand shocks make the most significant contribution to the common trends and “lead” the other asset classes, whereas supply shocks have either a negligible or a weaker impact. Over the short-run, demand shocks positively impact the stock and housing markets and negatively impact bonds, while supply shocks induce negative and weaker impacts on all three asset classes.     

Economists in the 2008 financial crisis: Slow to see,fast to act

We study the economics- and finance-scholars’ reaction to the 2008 financial crisis using machine learning language analyses methods of Latent Dirichlet Allocation and dynamic topic modelling algorithms, to analyze the texts of 14,270 NBER working papers covering the 1999–2016 period. We find that academic scholars as a group were insufficiently engaged in crises’ studies before 2008. As the crisis unraveled, however, they switched their focus to studying the crisis, its causes, and consequences. Thus, the scholars were “slow-to-see,” but they were “fast-to-act.” Their initial response to the ongoing Covid-19 crisis is consistent with these conclusions.     

Flows into tourist areas: an econometric approach

The globalisation of the tourism industry has led to a horizontal and vertical penetration of firms, leading to strong competition in all tourist centres. In light of these circumstances there is a need to develop strategies that encourage entrepreneurial actions and help firms to design the most competitive tourism offer possible. For the development of these strategies, the current work attempts to identify the degree of interrelation existing between the different tourist markets. Specifically, the study is based on an analysis of the evolution in the relations between the main tourist‐receiving centres in Spain. It identifies the short‐ and long‐term dynamic relations existing between them, and determines their degree of interdependence and any potential leadership relations between them. The methodology used is the one underlying Cointegration theory and vector autoregressive theory, together with forecast error variance decomposition and the impulse‐response function. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A new unique impulse response function in linear vector autoregressive models

This article proposes a new unique impulse response function (IRF) measure, or MIRF, based on the popular vector autoregressive model to study interdependency of multivariate time series. Same as the orthogonal IRF, the estimator of MIRF has an analytical form with well-established asymptotics, and is invariant to ordering of series. Compared to alternative unique IRF measures, MIRF does not depend on extreme identifications, and the associated forecast error variance measure is explainable. An illustrative empirical example is also provided.     

健康扶贫政策提升农村贫困老人主观幸福感了吗？

随着我国脱贫攻坚结束进入过渡期，健康扶贫政策对巩固脱贫攻坚提高农村贫困人口健康水平具有重要的意义。基于2015年和2018年中国健康与养老追踪调查（CHARLS）数据，运用倾向得分匹配和双重差分模型（PSM-DID），分析健康扶贫政策对农村贫困老人幸福感的影响及作用机制。研究结果表明，健康扶贫政策在5%的显著水平下提升了农村贫困老人的积极情感，并在1%的显著水平下降低了其消极情感；机制检验发现，健康扶贫政策通过提升农村贫困老人实际健康状况、降低医疗费用支出的路径提升了农村贫困老人主观幸福感；通过异质性分析发现，健康扶贫政策在5%的显著性水平下提升了健康状况较差的农村贫困老人积极情绪。最后提出逐步完善医疗保障体系、拓宽健康帮扶边界、提升医疗服务水平、树立大健康理念等建议。