论我国农村金融的增量改革

通过考察农村金融组织制度变迁的过程，发现每次变迁几乎都是在政府主导下进行的，其变迁结果却差强人意；而且，由于信用社、农业发展银行等几乎垄断了农村金融，其进行自我变革的内在动力不足，根据制度变迁理论并引入制度变迁的跨时期成本分析，应进行“增量改革”，即发展新的金融组织以对现有的金融机构施加外在压力，利用市场竞争促使其进行自我变革，满足农村金融需求以促进农村发展。     

The effect of permanent product discounts and order coupons on purchase incidence,purchase quantity,and spending

This paper examines the influence of a permanent discount strategy on customer purchase behavior, i.e., purchase incidence in each week, purchase quantity (in units), and total order spending (in CNY). Permanent discounts are defined as discounts continuously provided by retailers. We identify two types of permanent discounts, namely, product-specific price discounts (PD) and order coupons (OD, which can be redeemed for a total order). We collect transactional data from a Chinese online retailer and empirically examine the effects of the two types of permanent discounts and customers’ expectations of PD and OD. We find nonlinear relationships between permanent discounts and customer purchase behavior. PDs negatively influence spending when they are lower than 19% but show a positive effect beyond this threshold, hence depicting a U-shaped relationship. They also affect purchase quantity positively but at a decreasing rate. Customer expectations of PD influence purchase incidence, spending, and purchase quantity following a U-shaped patter with a positive influence appearing when PD expectations are high than 31%, 27%, and 18% respectively. On the other hand, ODs influence spending and purchase quantity positively at an increasing rate. Customer expectations of OD influence purchase incidence, spending, and purchase quantity following a U-shaped relationship where the positive influence on purchase incidence shows beyond OD expectations of 426 CNY, and the positive effect appearing on spending and purchase quantity when these expectations are higher than 34 CNY. We also find that customer expectations of discounts interact with current discount levels in their influence on spending. Combining these results and considering that order coupons negatively affect the profit margin of the total basket, we suggest that retailers should offer order coupons with relatively low value but product-specific price discounts with high discount depth.     

HOW CAN PUBLIC SPENDING HELP YOU GROW? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Although many studies indicate that both the level and composition of public spending are significant for economic growth, the results in the empirical literature are mixed. This paper suggests that the country sample selection and expenditure classification are important in explaining these conflicting results. The empirical analysis shows that the link between growth and public spending, especially its core component, is strong only for countries with macroeconomic stability and fast GDP per capita growth dynamics, which are also capable of using public funds for productive purposes.     

IT cost benchmarking: Drawing the right conclusions

The use of managerial control ratios for benchmarking IT costs is widely accepted. This installment of Accounting Matters informs CIOs about IT managerial control ratios and the assumptions underlying the use of these ratios in IT cost benchmarking. Incorrect use of these ratios and violation of the assumptions can lead to faulty inferences and costly mistakes. This article proposes a technique for benchmarking IT costs to draw the right conclusions from the data.     

Towards a ‘new normal’ growth strategy: China in comparative perspective

China’s move towards a new normal has been motivated by domestic factors and accelerated by the decline in export opportunities to developed countries. This decline, combined with the knock-on effects of China’s growth adjustments, is disrupting the favourable external environment that made developing countries’ export-led development strategies viable. This paper concentrates on a rebalancing of developing countries’ growth strategies towards a greater weight of household consumption as a potential alternative and discusses three challenges – market size, domestic purchasing power and balance-of-payments constraints. Concentrating on the latter, it analyses changes in sectoral compositions of consumer demand and patterns of international trade. Results point to the risk that a shift in growth strategy causes an import surge. The paper’s findings indicate the scope and speed of required product innovation that would prevent a rebalancing of growth strategies towards a greater role of consumption from running into balance-of-payments constraints.     

Asymmetric effects of fiscal policy in EU and OECD countries

In this article, we take account of an evaluation of the short- and medium-term effects of the transmission mechanism of fiscal policy in EU and OECD countries and their dependence on the state of the economy and fiscal behaviour. Our findings indicate that (i) across EU member states the impact of government spending on economic performance is larger in the accession than in core member states, (ii) since the onset of the economic/financial crisis the government spending multipliers have become larger in both core and accession EU member states, and (iii) a comparison with fiscal responses in the OECD countries shows robustness of our estimates. The conclusion implies that the austerity measures present a substantial drag for economic activity in accession EU countries. Thus, we may state that not considering the fiscal behaviour and state of the economy gives misleading fiscal multiplier effects, which in turn lead to the adoption of inappropriate fiscal measures that even worsen a country's economic situation.     

基于特征增量的新类识别方法研究

在分类应用的过程中,经常会出现新的类别,导致数据分布发生显著变化,使得原分类模型不再适用。如何识别新的类别使分类模型能适应其出现已经成为一个亟需解决的问题。本文提出基于特征增量的SVDD(支持向量数据描述)新类识别方法。该方法在SVDD算法的基础上,通过增加新特征,扩大特征空间维度从而提高模型对于新类的识别能力。在多个数据集上的实验结果表明,该方法能有效识别新类,使更新后的模型具有更高的准确度。     

Does higher government debt link to higher social expenditure? New method,new evidence

Scholars believe that higher social expenditures are usually linked with higher government debts, whereas higher debts reduce social expenditures. However, it is reasonable to speculate that higher government debt may contribute to higher social spending, while fiscal deficits occur during a recession, which commonly creates greater demand for social expenditure. For a deeper investigation, this paper revisits the dynamic relationship between social spending and public debts in the time-frequency domain, using the novel wavelet-coherency analysis as well as the phase-difference technique to derive the co-moved and causal relationships between social spending and public debts in 13 OECD countries. The evidence identifies a dynamic relationship between variables. While higher social expenditures increase government debts, the shocks from government debts to social expenditures are conversely uncertain. We discover that higher government debt does reduce social expenditures, but it may be linked to higher social spending. The robustness of partial coherency and phase-difference discovers the role of a political party in the decision over social welfare programmes in the sample countries.     

The relevance of commuting zones for regional spending efficiency

We use data envelopment analysis (DEA) efficiency scores to show that clustering municipalities into encompassing regional clusters improves spending efficiency of single stand-alone municipalities. We propose a new geographic aggregation based on municipalities-to-municipalities commuting flows, defined using hierarchical cluster analysis. Our example for Portugal shows that from an output-oriented perspective between 83% and 98% of municipalities would increase their efficiency scores, while from an input-oriented perspective between 86% and 98% of municipalities would also be better off in terms of efficiency. Then using a linear regression model, we find that population increases positively affects the efficient scores (via scale economies). Also, increases in the share of high-educated and poorer residents leads to higher efficiency scores.     

Government size,composition of public spending and economic growth in Brazil

The performance of the fiscal policy is largely affected by the relationship between government size, composition of public spending and economic growth. We use a theoretical framework to find optimal relations among these variables and confront them with a panel data for the Brazilian states. Private capital and government spending are substitute inputs in production as the Brazilian states require provision of public spending to fill gaps in the underdeveloped private sector. Public investment and current government expenditures are combined in fixed ratios in the overall government spending due to strong rigidity of the public budget. The optimal share of public investment is considerably lower than current expenditures, as occurs in developing countries characterized by low economic dynamism. Finally, the average tax burden from the data is below the estimated optimal level, meaning that there is space for increasing tax rate without harming economic growth for some Brazilian states.