Forecasting Stock Index Futures Price Volatility: Linear vs. Nonlinear Models

The study examines the relative ability of various models to forecast daily stock index futures volatility. The forecasting models that are employed range from naïve models to the relatively complex ARCH-class models. It is found that among linear models of stock index futures volatility, the autoregressive model ranks first using the RMSE and MAPE criteria. We also examine three nonlinear models. These models are GARCH-M, EGARCH, and ESTAR. We find that nonlinear GARCH models dominate linear models utilizing the RMSE and the MAPE error statistics and EGARCH appears to be the best model for forecasting stock index futures price volatility.     

北京先行经济指数研究

"北京先行经济指数"是我国第一个区域性先行经济指数,在试运行中取得了很好的效果。该指数以我国现行统计制度为基础,紧密结合北京实际,通过构造基准循环、"提取"先行指标、编制指数、返回检验等步骤,对北京先行经济指数的科学性和有效性进行了分析。先行指数超前GDP增速变化4～8个月这一重要研究结论在返回检验中得到了很好的证实。     

基于因素分析的区域旅游竞争力评价模型研究

竞争力评价是近年学术研究的热点.本文首先回顾了我国区域旅游竞争力评价的相关研究,然后从分析区域旅游竞争力的影响因素入手,构建一个评价区域旅游竞争力的多层次指标体系,并利用因子分析法对指标体系进行定量分析,建立相应的综合评价模型.     

区域旅游业竞争力评价:指标构建与方法选择

合理地设计评价指标和科学地评价区域旅游业竞争力,是区域间旅游业竞争力比较、现状问题分析以及制定对策建议的前提,也是区域旅游业竞争力理论的重要组成内容.本文在对现有研究回顾和评述的基础上,结合区域旅游业发展的实践和竞争力发展特征,构建区域旅游业竞争力综合评价指标体系,并对评价研究方法进行了探讨和选择.     

消费行为的模糊数学模型

在购物指标体系的基础上,利用模糊数学原理,建立消费者购物的数学模型,并编出模型的计算机程序和软件,使购物者能在计算机上自行操作,以便科学、合理、有比较的选择自己所购物品,满足消费心理需求。     

我国服务业增加值的核算问题

本文集中讨论我国服务业增加值估算中存在的问题。由于历史原因和服务业本身的一些特点 ,我国现价服务业增加值被严重地低估了 ,服务业增长率计算也可能存在着偏差。对服务业增加值的以往研究均受到基础数据的限制而未能根本地解决这些问题。服务业统计核算的缺陷严重地阻碍着经济分析和经济决策。因此 ,改善我国服务业统计核算是当务之急。从长远的角度来说 ,服务业增加值核算的改善在很大程度上取决于统计调查的完善。但是 ,在现有的条件下 ,仍然有很大的改善余地。     

Natural resources, capital accumulation and the resource curse

Early concern by economists for the effect of natural capital on economic growth gave way to complacency and neglect during the nineteenth century. Evidence has emerged, however, that since the 1960s the economic performance of low-income countries has been inversely related to their natural resource wealth. This relationship is not a deterministic one so policy counts. SEEA can help improve the policy and performance of resource-abundant low-income countries by reinforcing the rationale for the sound management of natural resources and also by providing an index of policy sustainability in the form of the net saving rate. This policy index, along with other measures such as a capital fund for sterilizing the rent, initiatives to increase the transparency of rent flows and the rigorous evaluation of alternative uses of additional public sector revenue can improve the efficiency by which natural resource rent is transformed into alternative forms of capital to sustain rising social welfare. Chad and Mauritania provide case studies to illustrate how SEEA and net saving can be used to diagnose policy failure and improve economic performance.     

山东省区域经济差异研究

将山东省划分为东、中、西三大经济区域,分析了1995-2011年山东省三大区域经济的三大产业、GDP以及泰尔指数,将定量和定性分析方法相结合来评价山东省三大区域的经济差异现状。结果显示：山东省三大区域的经济差异在逐年扩大后趋于平稳,区域间差距比区域内部差距的扩大速度更快是造成区域差异大的主要原因。并在此基础上提出相关建议：对经济差异的调控应以缩小区域间的差异为重点;同时,加强各区域经济中心的建设,更好地发挥经济中心对周围各区县的辐射效应和带动作用等。     

中国股市波动有限理性归因实证分析

基于中国股市波动特征构建了中国股市的两类机构投资者（积极投资策略和保守型投资策略的机构投资者）投资理性模型。随后,借助计量软件对上证指数的时序数据和这一模型生成的数据进行拟合分析．分析这两个有限理性投资者对上证指数的超额波动所起的作用。最后,利用格兰杰检验法．检验这些变量之间的解释程度。     

Does the evidence on corruption depend on how it is measured? Results from a cross-country study on microdata sets

While much of the existing literature on corruption looks at the effect of corruption on macro variables such as growth rates and income distribution, this study provides a departure by focussing on victims of corruption by using microdata to compare civilian and business corruption. This study finds that businesses face a stronger incidence of bribe demands than individuals. Though there are several differences between the determinants of the two forms of bribe victimization, there are also some similarities. Policies to combat corruption need to take into account both the differences and the similarities.