Seasonal concentration of tourism demand: Decomposition analysis and marketing implications

This paper analyzes seasonality in the United Kingdom, specifically the English regions in relation to tourists' place of origin and main travel motivation. The method used is a decomposition of the Gini index, which provides relative marginal effects that facilitate the identification of market segments open to counter-seasonal marketing efforts. This method has been combined with a graphical multivariate technique (biplot), which groups segments according to their seasonality characteristics. Seasonal patterns associated with particular segments differ significantly when studied on a disaggregated basis. Therefore, an adequate level of disaggregation is essential in the design of counter-seasonal strategies. Although this study focuses on British destinations, this methodology could be used as a control and monitoring measure in the regional analysis of any destination, facilitating regular adjustment of regional tourism marketing campaigns to minimize seasonality effects, specifically by targeting the types of tourists less prone to seasonality.     

The contribution of social tourism to sustainable tourism: a case study of seasonally adjusted programmes in Spain

Recent policy from the European Union has attempted to justify social tourism initiatives on the basis that they lead to a more sustainable tourism industry. However, the majority of latest research in the field has been focused on the benefits for participants, with the addition of some evidence on the economic impacts of such programmes on destinations, which have pointed towards sustainability outcomes including: a longer tourism season, more even spread of demand, and longer periods of employment for tourism workers. Yet there is a lack of direct evidence linking such programme to these outcomes. This paper aimed to explore this important disconnect between policy assumptions and evidence-based outcomes through an analysis of the deseasonalising effects of the Spanish social tourism programme for older people. The research found that this programme does have an effect on the seasonal nature of employment and economic activity in most regions studied, but that the huge volume of demand from international tourists in the high seasons masks the quantitative effects in the regions with the highest seasonal concentration of international tourists. Recommendations for policy and practice in sustainable tourism are made that are transferable to many countries and regions that adopt social tourism programmes.     

Tourism competitiveness index of the Asia-Pacific region through consistency analysis

The world’s economy shifts to a more competitive environment as globalization expands and countries have to adjust by making decisions to improve their competitiveness in all sectors. The Travel and Tourism Report, a useful tool facilitating policy-making and business decisions, allows entities to envision their ranking in the face of the travel and tourism through the creation of a competitiveness index. Focusing on Asia and the Pacific, this paper intends to investigate internal consistency of the constructs based on data analysis techniques such as correlation and reliability, essentials to broader acceptance of the index. The results indicate that high linear association between index and pillars leads ultimately to good level of consistency and highlight the lack of relationship between overall consistency and inter-class consistency. It is suggested to pay close attention to unidimensionality of constructs and inter-relation between variables while building an indicator system as it increases its reliability.     

中国旅游业发展的省区差异及变化

科学审视省区旅游业发展的差异,是实现中国旅游业科学发展的基本前提.文章通过选取国内旅游人数、入境旅游人数、国内旅游收入、旅游外汇收入、旅游总收入相当于GDP百分比、旅游业就业人数占社会总就业人数的百分比等表征旅游业发展水平的6大统计指标,运用多元统计分析方法,评估了中国2000年与2010年旅游化指数的省区差异,发现近10年来中国旅游业发展仍然呈现出显著的区域非均衡性,一些中西部后发优势的省区旅游化程度在明显上升.其中,区位与资源禀赋、经济发展水平、政府政策、基础设施、节庆事件等是导致各地旅游化程度差异及其变化的主导因素.     

用地理集中指数衡量游客集中程度方法的一个改进

地理集中指数用来衡量游客集中度存在着一些不足,其大小受到样本数量多少的影响,既没有一个衡量的标准,又不能进行不同样本数量的结果的比较,且不够直观。考虑引入完全均匀分布的地理集中指数,并计算其与地理集中指数之差,再运用这个差值与完全平均的地理集中指数之比来衡量游客集中度,并称这个比值为游客集中度系数,这一系数可以较科学、直观地反映游客集中程度。     

改革开放以来中国乡镇企业全要素生产率增长的时空差异

利用非参数Mamquist指数方法分析了改革开放以来我国乡镇企业的全要素生产率(TFP)增长的时空特征。结果表明:1978年以来,乡镇企业TFP的年均增长率为4.8%,并且呈现出显著的阶段性变化和地区差异特征。从时间上来看,除了整顿提高阶段和调整创新阶段TFP的增长率为负以外,其他阶段TFP均实现了增长,并且表现为要素投入驱动和生产率提升双重驱动的特点,其中要素投入对经济增长的平均贡献占主体;从三大地带来看,乡镇企业TFP从东向西渐次降低;从八大综合经济区来看,北部和东部沿海综合经济区的乡镇企业TFP增长率最高,东北和长江中游综合经济区次之,其他四个综合经济地区相对较低。     

上海股票市场空气质量指数的实证研究

空气质量能够通过情绪渠道和信息渠道去影响投资者的决策和投资行为,从而影响股票市场。采用2014年5月14日至2017年2月17日的上证指数、全国PM2.5指数以及百度指数数据,对空气质量如何影响股票市场及其影响力度进行实证分析。结果显示空气质量能够显著地影响股票市场,且季节性紊乱会加剧这一影响力度。此外空气质量对上证工业指数的影响大于上证综指,表明空气质量对特定行业的影响大于整体市场,而信息获取方式又会影响到影响的方向和力度。     

从感性规划向数字规划进军

本文针对我国旅游规划存在的现实问题,提出数字规划的发展构想.论文认为过去20年的发展历程,我国旅游规划在很大程度上属于感性规划,其最大特点是缺少独立的技术手段和独立的理论基础.数字规划是建立在现代信息技术基础上的规划,以数字和图纸为语言,阐述旅游分析与规划思想,使规划具有一种尺度感.数字规划的核心是建立以市场研究为基础的旅游参数、旅游指标体系和策划体系.     

休闲与生活质量关系的量化考察:国外研究进展及启示

参与休闲活动能够提高人们的生活质量,这是国内学界普遍认同的观点.然而这个观点更多地是从逻辑推演而来,还缺乏实证的量化考察.对休闲与生活质量关系的量化考察,涉及主客观两类指标的设置;而其最终价值在于帮助决策者制定和调整相关政策,采取有效措施,从而全面改善居民的休闲状况,提高其生活质量.     

信用风险测量指标体系研究

在现代商业银行经营中,信用风险是影响其安全高效运营的主要原因。信用风险管理中最重要的就是信用风险测量。自从20世纪80年代末期以来,人工智能技术如神经网络、专家系统也被应用于商业银行信用风险测量中。但预测指标的研究则相对滞后,成为研究的一个难点。