An integrated decision-support approach in prioritizing risks of non-indigenous species in the face of high uncertainty

When evaluating the risks of future invasions, we often have sparse information on the likelihood that a species will arrive, establish and spread in a new environment, and on the potential impacts should this occur. Conventional risk assessment, therefore, is limited in providing guidance in managing the risk of non-indigenous species (NIS). However, risk management decisions must be made facing these uncertainties to avoid high and irreversible impacts.We develop an integrated ecological economic modeling and deliberative multi-criteria evaluation (DMCE) approach to support group decision-making in risk prioritization, using an example of ten NIS that could potentially impact Australian plant industries. This innovative approach seeks to combine the advantages of dynamic modeling with the benefits of DMCE in assessing and communicating uncertainty. The model unveils the complexity of the socio-ecological system of biological invasion, with a scenario analysis designed to interactively communicate scientific uncertainty to decision-makers. The DMCE provides a structured approach to identifying stakeholders' key concerns in addressing economic, social, and environmental dimensions of NIS risk explicitly. Functioning as a platform for risk communication, the DMCE also offers an opportunity for diverse views to enter the decision-making process and for the negotiation of consensus consensuses.     

International projects proposal analysis: Risk assessment using radial maps

International projects are very attractive to companies seeking to expand their business horizons, and collaborative networks of international partners have created new work environments that differ from the conventional business structures of the past. This study provides scholarly research into the risks that inherently affect an international project's success and provides insight into the effective measures that project managers may employ to assist in analyzing and mitigating these multinational risks during the bid and proposal process. A new method of radial risk mapping assists management in graphing their risk findings to aid in their proposal analysis. These graphical representations provide firms seeking international markets with a method for selecting those projects with the least risk, thereby increasing their chances of success and maximum profit.     

商业银行效率、风险与技术进步——基于18家国际大银行的实证分析

本文运用非参数DEA方法对2006～2008年18家国际大银行的效率变化情况进行了实证研究。在选取投入产出指标上,与传统方法不同,本文考虑风险投入,利用利润法选取指标。通过运用两种DEA模型,分别对效率进行静态与动态分析,探讨引起国内外银行效率变动的原因,并且对技术退步现象首次作出可能的解释。本文主要结论为,不论从国际银行业,还是中国银行业来看,全要素生产率的减少主要是由技术退步引起的。而技术变动的原因在于风险的变动。     

商业银行信用风险与宏观经济——基于压力测试的研究

本文采用压力测试框架,研究了宏观经济波动对商业银行信用风险的影响。文章以不良贷款率度量信用风险,以名义GDP增长率、广义货币供应量（M2）增速、居民消费价格指数（CPI）以及房地产销售价格指数作为宏观经济变量,建立了合适的宏观压力测试模型。在GDP增速放缓、CPI上升、M2增速下降的压力情景下,预测了2011年第一季度到第四季度的不良贷款率的变化路径。实证结果表明在压力情景下商业银行的不良贷款率将会显著上升。     

监管机构间博弈的金融监管非均衡与系统风险研究

文章通过对金融监管者之间的博弈行为研究发现,分业监管体制下监管机构之间的监管合作成本是导致监管制度漏洞的重要因素。以金融监管机构之间博弈为基础的监管者与金融机构的博弈结果显示,监管者可以通过对监管成本和处罚力度的动态调整实现监管博弈均衡。监管制度的均衡分析与微观形成机理结论的契合表明,降低监管成本比单纯加大对金融机构的处罚力度更有利于金融系统性风险的控制与化解。通过对美国应对2008年全球金融危机的金融监管实践分析和我国金融监管现状透视,模型结论得到了有效的印证。     

Revisiting the risk/return relations in the Asian Pacific markets: New evidence from alternative models

This paper examines the risk/return relations in eleven Asian Pacific stock markets and explores if the 1997 Asian financial crisis significantly influenced market behavior in the region. We use a plain vanilla time-series regression approach as well as various GARCH models. Although results significantly vary across model specifications, the overall evidence from GARCH models supports a significantly positive risk/return relation in several markets but only prior to the Asian financial crisis. These results accord with Glosten et al. (1993) and Harvey (2001) and suggest that the relative risk aversion is sensitive to both model specifications and structural breaks.     

水产品加工业供应链风险及其控制策略

根据对文献的研究成果,结合对水产品加工业的深入调研分析,本文着重从供应、物流、财务、信息、需求、环境等方面对水产品加工业供应链风险进行剖析。供应链中各种风险因素之间并非独立存在,而是相互影响、互为因果。因此,在明确水产业供应链每种风险产生根源及其变动规律的基础上,提出适宜的风险控制策略,以期规避风险,确保水产业供应链整体安全高效运行。     

后金融危机时期基金营销创新与营销风险管理

开放式基金的市场营销环节非常薄弱,制约了基金业的发展。后金融危机时期,基金业市场竞争更加激励,基金的营销能力成为基金公司核心竞争力的重要组成部分。本文分析了基金营销中的主要问题,提出建立基金业品牌营销、社会营销、关系营销、文化营销等多元化营销理念。只有在此基础上对营销策略进行全方位的改革和创新,才能打开基金营销的新局面,有效提高基金公司的核心竞争力。针对基金营销过程中产生的主要风险,提出了建立健全基金营销风险管理机制的相关建议。     

基于在线信息的C2C顾客可感知风险评价研究

C2C环境下顾客购物过程中面临诸多风险,如何有效识别和评价这些风险至关重要。本文以顾客可感知风险为基础,从当前国内主流C2C交易平台的主要信息出发,本着可获取、可计量的原则,在考虑时间、消费者风险偏好等因素的基础上,从C2C网站风险、卖家风险、产品风险、服务风险等方面建立风险计量指标体系,借助突变理论建立了风险综合评价模型,并对模型特点及应用进行了分析与总结。     

企业财务风险的表现形式及应对措施

风险管理是一门新兴的管理学科,只有将企业作为一个整体对财务风险进行度量、控制和处理,才能实现真正的企业财务风险管理所要达到的目的,这是值得深入研究的重要课题.