Backtesting Value-at-Risk: A Duration-Based Approach

Financial risk model evaluation or backtesting is a key partof the internal model's approach to market risk management aslaid out by the Basle Committee on Banking Supervision. However,existing backtesting methods have relatively low power in realisticsmall sample settings. Our contribution is the exploration ofnew tools for backtesting based on the duration of days betweenthe violations of the Value-at-Risk. Our Monte Carlo resultsshow that in realistic situations, the new duration-based testshave considerably better power properties than the previouslysuggested tests.     

国家助学贷款的风险与防范

国家助学贷款是一个政治、福利、教育、金融概念的混合体。本文主要从国家助学贷款发放的现状、存在的问题人手，提出了应加强维护信用制度的法律建设；创建良好的社会信用环境；改进管理制度与操作模式；加强各部门的协调与沟通等防范措施。     

改进后的PERT方法在进度风险分析中的应用

风险分析是进度控制中的重要内容。针对经典PERT网络的假设和计算过程,分析出它存在的三方面缺陷。并提出解决问题的三种具体措施,从概率论与数理统计的角度,对关键线路和关键工作进行了重新定义和确定的方法。     

对加拿大货币需求的数量分析

在特定的经济条件下，全社会货币需求量以及这个量的变动规律，是一国政府制定并执行货币政策和财政政策时所要考虑的重要参数。战后以来，西方国家政府一般是通过货币政策和财政政策的执行，最终影响产出量和就业水平。分析影响货币需求变动的因素及其变量之间的数量关系，是正确地预测货币需求变动的关键。加拿大的货币需求与其相关的经济因素之间的关系；加拿大货币供求与经济增长之间的关系。     

对小地区失业统计差额比的推定

本文对韩国国内行政区域如市郡区等小地区的失业统计共同差额比进行推定的方法有联合推定量,Woolf推定量和Mantel-Haenszel推定量等。对这个推定量的可信度是通过偏差和平均平方误差的概念来进行比较的。从对京畿地区经济活动人口调查情况看,这个地区内的24个市郡单位行政自治地区的男、女失业率差额比的偏差及平均平方误差是通过本次研究提出的推定程序来推定的。这些推定数的稳定性和效率性可以通过相对偏差和相对平均误差平方根来评价。Woolf推定量或Mantel-Haenszel推定量比联合推定量更为稳定,从其效率性来看三者很相似。     

汇率波动模型与人民币汇率调整新趋势

文章对四种汇率波动模型进行简要介绍与说明,指出中国渐进式的改革和开放决定了入世后人民币汇率的制度调整也应是渐进式的,现阶段人民币汇率制度的选择应实行目标区汇率制。     

重大突发事件风险管理研究

当前，国际社会重大突发事件的风险性质正在发生剧烈的变化，只有了解和把握这些变化及其制约因素，才能够对此有一个准确、科学的认识。本文对国际社会重大突发事件风险性质的变化进行了概要性介绍，并从社会流动性和系统复杂性的提高，人类居所、活动或资产规模的增大和集中化，突发事件风险因素的变化，公共和私人机构处理风险职责的漂移，以及社会变化和对风险的理解等5个方面对重大突发事件的风险管理进行了探讨。     

The composition of interest: The judaic prohibition

An interest charge is made up of an award for waiting known as the real rate of interest, a premium for risk and compensation for transaction costs. Where inflation exists the lender seeks further compensation. In order to understand the composition and evolution of different versions of the usury prohibition it is necessary to ask which components of an interest charge are prohibited by each version. The Judaic prohibition has two aspects which are of particular interest to business historians and students of usury. First, the general rule is that a reward for waiting is prohibited. This focuses on the time-based part of interest charge. Second, interest is prohibited because it amounts to placing a stumbling block before the blind. This focuses on the typical gullibility of the borrower confronted by a more expert, better funded lender. Economics confirms and enriches our understanding of these important aspects of the prohibition. They achieve this by increasing our understanding of two facts: first, that the borrower is a gullible individual subject to irrational and inconsistent behaviour; and, second, that this behaviour relates to the waiting aspect of interest which is proscribed in the prohibition. How far these insights apply to other civilisations' prohibition, particularly those which derive from the Judaic prohibition, merits further study; so also do the ethical lessons of the Mosaic rules for a globalised society based on capitalism.     

China＇s Social Security： Case Studies of the Interest Groups and Policy Monopoly

This section introduces an asymmetric information model to analyze the interest groups and policy monopoly in social security management, mainly focusing on the relation between the interest groups in the social security products market and the social security government institutions at the central level, namely the major social security policy makers.     

Rethinking the role of NCBs in the EMU

Five years after the introduction of unified monetary policy in the EMU, some member countries are wondering whether they have ceded too much of their policy-making powers. The fact that National Central Banks no longer carry out sizable expansionary open market or foreign exchange market operations suggests that they face substantially reduced abilities to set economic policy.This paper demonstrates that, in fact, very little power has been yielded: on the fiscal front, the force of such policy initiatives is enhanced by the fixity of the exchange rate. On the monetary front, we show that there is an observational equivalence between all Central Bank actions under fixed exchange rates. This implies that the authorities retain the same amount of policy flexibility as before. So long as they use an alternative form of policy initiative, carrying out what previously would have been characterized as sterilized foreign exchange market operations, their ability to influence the macro performance of their economy is undiminished.