对我国推行股票期权的几点思考

股票期权是欧美国家企业普遍采用的一种薪酬形式。从理论上看,它有利于完善我国经营者激励机制、促进国有企业改革的发展。然而,目前我国推行实施规范股票期权的基本条件还很不成熟。在这种情况下,不适宜凭着单纯的热情大规模推广股票期权。从根本上说,推行股票期权有待于国有企业改革自身的完善。     

Prediction of Individual Bond Prices via a Dynamic Bond Pricing Model: Application to Japanese Government Bond Price Data

In this paper, we propose a dynamic bond pricing model and report the usefulness of our bond pricing model based on analysis of Japanese Government bond price data. We extend the concept of the time dependent Markov (TDM) model proposed by Kariya and Tsuda (Financial Engineering and the Japanese Markets, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, Vol. 1, pp. 1–20) to a dynamic model, which can obtain information for future bond prices. A main feature of the extended model is that the whole stochastic process of the random cash-flow discount functions of each individual bond has a time series structure. We express the dynamic structure for the models by using a Bayesian state space representation. The state space approach integrates cross-sectional and time series aspects of individual bond prices. From the empirical results, we find useful evidence that our model performs well for the prediction of the patterns of the term structure of the individual bond returns.     

国有企业出资人制度的原由和框架

国有企业难以全面振兴的深层次原因是：国民收入分配格局变化后，财政从生产建设财政转变为借债吃型财政后，它们失去了资本金注资来源，而银行注资形成的高负债发展模式，又会形成金融风险；工资成本上升趋势和资本利润率下降规律内样在国有企业发生作用，冗员过多的工资上升侵蚀利润，使国有企业难以为继；将企业作为一级党政社团组织办和企业办社会，使企业的体制成本很高，并内化了许多社会成本；所有者多头代理，导致管事的不管人，管人的不管事，所有者的权力、责任和应当承担的风险不对称。从放权让利改革开始的所有机和经营权的分离，虽然扩大了企业的自主权，但是没有形成真正管用的所有者，且形成了更多的不负责任的所有者代表。后来企业资产多元化的改革，希望通过外力建立所有者，国有资产管理搭便车，然而由于种种原因，效果并不理想。从战略上讲，国有经济要集中，要社会化，要在许多领域退出。但是，国有经济所占资源目前仍占全社会经营性资源的70%以上。并且，国有经济并不可能在短期内得以转轨。因此，需要在过渡时期建立一种有效的出资人一经营者制衡制度，使国有企业在国民经济中发挥应有的作用。     

机构投资者的决策人属性及其决策特征

尽管拥有比个人投资更高的理性，机构投资的理性仍显有限，不符合经典的经济人假说前提。代客理财重任使机构投资经常面临与组合投资有关的决策活动，机构投资更符合西蒙的决策人假说条件。作为决策人，机构投资本身是一个偏好收益、寻求满意投资组合的决策系统，在构建投资组合和参与公司治理的决策过程中表现出一些独特的特征。机构投资决策人假说的提出，将有助于推动相关理论研究和实践发展进程。     

国有林业企业股份合作制改造的认识与思考

股份合作制经济是改革中出现的新事物 ,本文分析了国有林业企业股份作制改造的必要性和有利条件 ,提出国有林业企业改制的目的以及改制过程中注意的问题。     

破解“特里芬难题”与改革现行国际货币体系

该文从剖析“特里芬难题”的本质原因入手,提出加快国际货币体系改革是解决“特里芬难题”,更是应对近半个多世纪以来国际货币金融危机频仍的根本途径。SDR作为一种在国际货币基金组织框架下由成员国集体创设的储备资产和记账单位,未来可以考虑围绕其基本的货币要素分步开展国际货币体系的改革。随着中国经济的稳健发展和人民币跨境结算进程的加快,人民币应当在国际货币体系改革进程中发挥更大的作用。     

云南省完善医疗保险异地就医服务管理的现实选择

现行的城镇职工医疗保险制度存在统筹层次低、统筹地区多、地区之间的医保政策和待遇标准以及管理办法各不相同的情况,随着人口流动性的不断增大,异地就医数量日益增加,异地就医和医疗费用结算等方面矛盾重重,一定程度上影响了制度的公平性。本文以云南省为例,在抽样调查的基础上分析了异地就医服务管理的现状,针对突出问题,提出了改进的对策和建议。     

中国机构投资者羊群行为实证分析

羊群行为作为机构投资者有限理性行为,对证券市场的健康发展产生着重要影响。在国外证券市场上机构投资者存在显著的羊群行为,而中国证券市场上的机构投资者是否也存在羊群行为呢?笔者对我国机构投资者———投资基金在股票交易中的羊群效应行为进行了系统研究,发现羊群行为在投资基金之间表现显著。     

Exploring the impacts of tourism on the livelihoods of local poor: the role of local government and major investors

This study identifies the impacts of tourism development on the living conditions of local poor and examines the role of local government and major investors in this process. A village in southern China was chosen as the research site. Because of tourism development, the villagers had all been relocated and initially, it was thought that their housing conditions had improved. Nevertheless, the relocated houses were later criticized as being small and of low quality. The traditional local means of livelihood also changed, from farming and fishing to mainly being employed in paid work. Yet, because of the high cost of living, the villagers' actual living standards had not greatly improved. This study claims that, since the municipal government took a developmental approach and investors followed market logic, the interests of the local poor were sacrificed to tourism development. This suggests that if tourism development is to reduce local levels of poverty, the interests of the local community should be front and center. Particularly in cases when tourism development tends to cause the transformation of local means of production, supportive initiatives and proper supervision and management strategies are needed in helping the poor adapt to new conditions.