Interpreting DNA Evidence: A Review

The paper provides a review of current issues relating to the use of DNA profiling in forensic science. A short historical section gives the main statistical milestones that occurred during a rapid development of DNA technology and operational uses. Greater detail is then provided for interpretation issues involving STR DNA profiles, including:

• – methods that take account of population substructure in DNA calculations;

• – parallel work carried out by the US National Research Council;

• – the move away from multiple independence testing in favour of experiments that demonstrate the robustness of casework procedures;

• – the questionable practice of source attribution 'with reasonable scientific certainty';

• – the effect on the interpretation of profiles obtained under increasingly sensitive techniques, the LCN technique in particular;

• – the use of DNA profiles as an intelligence tool;

• – the interpretation of DNA mixtures.

Experience of presenting DNA evidence within UK courts is also discussed. The paper then summarises a generic interpretation framework based on the concept of likelihood ratio within a hierarchy of propositions. Finally the use of Bayesian networks to interpret DNA evidence is reviewed.     

Adjusting the Seasonality of Milk Shipments in Canada: Problems, Economic Impacts and Potential Policies

High-summer / low-winter patterns of milk production and shipments (or seasonality of milk shipments) give rise to capacity utilization problems and attendant additional costs in the transportation, processing and distribution sectors of the dairy industry. While it is technically possible to modify the natural seasonal pattern, it may not be economically optimal to do so. This may in part explain the highly seasonal pattern of industrial milk shipments in Canada. and may suggest the need for policy incentives to induce an y adjustment. Linear programming models were used to analyze a small sample of highly seasonal dairy farms in Ontario. It was found that uniform shipment patterns would reduce farm profits only marginally (up to $240). Profit-maximizing scenarios were associated with even greater levels of seasonality than actually existed on these farms. Policy measures such as quarterly quotas and winter subsidy premiums were found to be effective in reducing the seasonality of milk shipments. It was concluded that these or alternative policy incentives would be necessary for inducing a uniform milk shipment pattern in Canada, in view of the negative impacts on farm profits of adopting a uniform pattern. Les modèles saisonniers de la production laitiére et de ses livraisons donnenl lieu à des problèmes ?utilisation de capacilé et des coiits supplementaires dans les secteurs de la production, de la distribution el du transport de ?induslrie laitière. Pourtant il sepeul qu'il soil sans but lucralif de modifier ce mo?ele naturel. Ceci peul expliquer en partie le caractére extrémemenl saisonnier des livraisons de lait induslriel au Canada, et peul suggérer également le besoin ?uliliser des stimulants de politique agricole pour causer de ?ajustement. Cet exposé présenle ?application de modèles deprogrammation linéaire à un petit nombre de fermes laitières onlariennes, qui son! caractérisées par une production extremémenl saisonnière, à permis de constater les résultats suivants: ?adoption ?un échelonnemenl uniforme des livraisons tout au long de ?année diminuerail les profits des exploitationns agricoles non plus que 240 dollars; les scénarios les plus profitables sont ceux qui sonl les plus saisonniers– on n'a pas vu pourlanl de lels scénarios aux fermes analysées; ?utilisation des mesures de politique agricole telles que des quotas trimeslriels el des primes à la production hivernale est éfficace pourfaire plus uniformes les livraisons laitières. Finalement, on conclul que des stimulants de politique agricole seraient nécéssaires pour développer au Canada un modèle de production laitière caractérisé par un étalement uniforme des livraisons de lair tout au long de ?année, el ceci à cause des effets négatifs ?un tel modèle sur les profits des exploitations agricoles.     

U.S. tourism in Mexico: An empirical analysis

This study estimated demand functions for tourism by U.S. residents in Mexico border areas, the Mexican interior, and overseas. There was no evidence that U.S. tourists substitute Mexico for more distant destinations as transportation costs rise. Border tourism is income elastic when the share of U.S. income of the border states is held fixed. Tourism in the Mexican interior is also income elastic. Tourism along the border is price elastic, while tourism in the interior is elastic with respect to U.S. and overseas prices but inelastic with respect to Mexican prices. The rise in the share of the Mexican interior in U.S. overseas tourism is not related to price factors. Recent devaluations of the Mexican peso are unlikely to provide benefits to the Mexican tourism industry.     

Corrupción como proceso organizacional: comprendiendo la lógica de la desnormalización de la corrupción

This article discusses the basic assumptions of an individualist vision on corruption. A different argument based on “social density” of the phenomenon is proposed instead: the process of normalization of corruption. Under this umbrella, corruption is a political concept that looks to impose a particular vision on what are “right” behaviors based on a sharp and unrealistic separation of the public and private sphere. A review of the organizational literature on corruption is developed, with the aim of understanding how organizational processes of socialization triggers behaviors that make corrupt acts to appear as “normal” under the organizational logic. Persons find themselves in a “slippery slope”, generating agreements and social dynamics that are able to produce corrupt logics under the normal life of an organization. A plea for discussing the social processes needed to “un-normalize” corruption is defended a conceptualization that goes beyond an individualist and moralist vision of the phenomenon.     

Mountain City Transit: Management Control and Performance Measurement

Mountain City Transit (MCT) is a short in‐class case based on a real‐life city transit department, a context with which students are very familiar. The case allows three delivery options for instructors. A first option is for instructors to use the case to introduce various elements of management control—the case is rich, thereby allowing students to identify multiple issues facing the organization. As a second option, instructors can use it as a performance management case wherein students build a balanced scorecard and receive a completed strategy map to analyze. As a third delivery option, the case can be used twice during the course, both to introduce management control and to discuss performance measurement. Students will also discuss real life implementation challenges that MCT and other organizations face.     

Dr. PC: A Multimedia Management Control Case*

Dr. PC is a 50–80‐minute, in‐class management control case. The case asks students to develop a management control system for a small computer repair business. Informed initially by personal experiences, and then from viewing a consumer affairs video that depicts an employee repeatedly violating his firm’s code of conduct, students work together to outline key management controls. After viewing the video and discussing key management controls, students are then exposed to Simons’s levers of control framework and asked to develop a comprehensive management control system for the small business. The case was developed over three years with the help of 344 undergraduate, master’s, and executive students. Student feedback from earlier versions of the case indicates they found the case stimulating and effective at reaching its learning objectives of understanding the purpose of and how to design a management control system for a small business.     

Information Asymmetry and Voluntary SFAS 157 Fair Value Disclosures by Bank Holding Companies During the 2007 Financial Crisis

We hand‐collect SFAS 157 voluntary fair value disclosures of 18 bank holding companies. The SEC's Division of Corporate Finance likely targeted these entities in 2008 through their “Dear CFO” letters in which they requested specific, additional disclosure items. We collect disclosures that match the SEC recommendations and create eight common factor disclosure variables to examine the effect of such disclosures on information asymmetry. We find that disclosure variables about the use of broker quotes or prices from pricing services and the use of market indices and illiquidity adjustments are related to lower information asymmetry. However, disclosure variables about valuation techniques and asset‐backed securities are related to greater information asymmetry. We also document that disclosure complexity, and disclosure tone (uncertainty and litigious) is related to greater information asymmetry. These findings are consistent with criticism that corporate disclosures are voluminous; management may obfuscate unfavorable information which in turn increases market participants’ assessment of uncertainty associated with the fair value measures. We caveat that the setting of the financial crisis and a small sample size may limit the ability to generalize these inferences to other time periods or other financial firms.     

浅析《黑暗的左手》中的道家思想与雌雄同体

厄休拉·勒奎恩是美国著名的女作家,她的作品尤其以科幻闻名,曾经得过雨果奖和星云奖。勒奎恩深受老子的道家思想的影响,其作品中大都饱含道家思想。《黑暗的左手》是其代表作,因此,分析其中的道家思想以及其中的雌雄同体对现实的影响就是必要的了。     

Outside Directors,Litigation Environment,and Management Earnings Forecasts

This study examines whether outside directors factor in litigation costs for the firm while monitoring optimal disclosure policy. It investigates the association of management earnings forecast disclosure and the proportion of outside directors across two regimes with unequal litigation costs, the United States and Canada. I find that the positive association between forecast frequency/ precision and the proportion of outside directors is stronger in Canada. This suggests that outside directors are more likely to encourage disclosure in less litigious Canada. I also find that firm‐level governance mechanisms such as outside directors and country‐level litigation environment act as governance substitutes in determining unbiased forecasts. Specifically, the negative association between forecast bias and the proportion of outside directors is stronger in Canada. I also revisit the effect of legal regime on forecast disclosure in a non‐U.S. context. Recent legislation has increased the likelihood of class‐action lawsuits in Canada. The passage of these laws has decreased the precision in forecasts by Canadian firms.