温特线性与季节指数平滑法在气温中的应用

由于月平均气温是以一年为周期呈现周期性波动,因此用温特线性与季节性指数平滑法对气温进行预测。以福州市2000—2012年月平均气温数据为样本数据,利用MATLAB软件通过建立温特线性与季节性指数平滑预测模型对福州市2013年1—12月份的气温进行预测,并通过计算机的迭代运算,得到一组最佳的平滑常数（α,β,γ）,使得预测模型的均方误差MSE最小。研究结果显示,福州市月平均气温预测模型的平滑常数为（0.5,0.05,0.05）,均方误差MSE为1.9097,预测精度较高。     

Necessary and sufficient conditions for consistency of generalizedM-estimates

GeneralizedM-estimates (minimum contrast estimates) and their asymptotically equivalent approximate versions are considered. A relatively simple condition is found which is equivalent with consistency of all approximateM-estimates under wide assumptions about the model. This condition is applied in several directions. (i) A more easily verifiable condition equivalent with consistency of all approximateM-estimates is derived and illustrated on models with stationary and ergodic observations. (ii) A condition sufficient for inconsistency of all approximateM-estimates is obtained and illustrated on models with i.i.d. observations. (iii) A simple necessary and sufficient condition for consistency of all approximateM-estimates in linear regression with i.i.d. errors is found. This condition is weaker than sufficient conditions for consistency ofM-estimators known from the literature. A linear regression example is presented where theM-estimate is consistent and an approximateM-estimate is incosistent.Supported by CSAS grant N. 17503.     

Recent contributions to censored regression models

A brief survey of estimation of parameters in a censored regression model (known as the Tobit model) and some details of the properties of LAD (least absolute deviation) estimates and tests of significance of linear hypotheses are given.     

A Renewable Resource-based Ramsey Model with Costly Resource Extraction

This paper derives the analytical solution of arenewable resource-based Ramsey economy withcostly resource extraction. The goal is toascertain whether costly resource extractioncan induce nonlinear dynamical properties in the system. We find that the solution for a model with constant technology can exhibit multiple steady states,and the comparative statics effects for consumption,utility, and the stock of nature capital areambiguous in a number of different cases. Moreover, thesolution for a model with exogenous technological progress exhibits unusual comparative dynamics andthe possibility of multiple balanced growthpaths. An increase in the rate of technologicalprogress induces a long-run growth rate in per capitaconsumption that depends on parameters of the productionfunction. Overall, technological progress inthe model can be less beneficial than in the standardeconomic growth model in which resourceextraction is costless.     

多目标规划在建设项目投资方案比选中的应用

提出了解决建设项目投资方案比选问题的新思路，将其归结为多目标规划问题，分析了目前解决该问题的不足之处，建立了建设项目投资方案比选的多目标规划模型，并通过一具体实例用线性加权和法求得了该问题的有效解。     

主动轮的冷挤压工艺及模具

自行车变速轴零件的冷挤压是我国早期应用无屑加工技术制造高难度复杂零件的典型范例之一,本文以作者的亲身经历回顾了四种内齿、内棘齿零件冷挤压成形的研制过程,着重介绍了其中一种零件的挤压工艺分析、实际生产工序和所用模具的特点,对长期处于保密状态的技术予以适当解密。以真实的科技成果填补了我国技术文献中的空白。     

空间[J,ρ]的一些拓扑性质

文献[6]已经证明了 Julia 例外函数集 J,在一致球面收敛的意义下是一个线性闭色。本文在 Julia 例外函数集 J 上引入了距离函数,讨论了距离空间[J,ρ]的一些拓扑性质,得到了正规族理论中,一致有界的连续函数集正规和解析函数集正规这两个定理的抽象形式。     

计算机控制盐酸自动计量输送泵设计

文章介绍了计算机控制盐酸自动计量输送泵特点,阐述了主泵和计算机控制部分的设计与计算     

居民生活用电阶梯电价基础电量的测算

利用2010年浙江省城乡居民消费支出的截面数据和其他统计数据,基于扩展线性支出系统模型推算出浙江省城镇居民生活阶梯电价第1档电量为160kW·h／月,能覆盖浙江全省82．4％的居民用户,并结合城乡居民家庭各类家用电器的拥有量,揭示了居民各收入群体电力的消费行为和差异,验证了160kW·h的月户均用电量可以满足全社会80％以上家庭的主要家用电器的电能需求。运用扩展线性支出系统模型和计量经济学的方法．对居民基本生活用电的需求电量进行了研究和实证分析。     

“线性尺寸一般公差”国标的分析和应用

着重分析“线性尺寸一般公差”新旧国家标准的区别,新标准的优缺点介绍,结合本单位实际,介绍一般公差的应用。