Forecasting and decomposition of portfolio credit risk using macroeconomic and frailty factors

This paper presents a dynamic portfolio credit model following the regulatory framework, using macroeconomic and latent risk factors to predict the aggregate loan portfolio loss in a banking system. The latent risk factors have three levels: global across the entire banking system, parent-sectoral for the intermediate loan sectors and sector-specific for the individual loan sectors. The aggregate credit loss distribution of the banking system over a risk horizon is generated by Monte Carlo simulation, and a quantile estimator is used to produce the aggregate risk measure and economic capital. The risk contributions of the individual sectors and risk factors are measured by combining the Hoeffding decomposition with the Euler capital allocation rule. For the U.S. banking system, we find that the real GDP growth rate, the global and sector-wide frailty risk factors and their spillovers significantly affect loan defaults, and the impacts of the frailty factors are not only economy-wide but also sector-specific. We also find that the frailty risk factors make more significant risk contributions to the aggregate portfolio risk than the macroeconomic factors, while the macroeconomic factors help to improve the accuracy and efficiency of the credit risk forecasts.     

The communication in the actual socio-economic environment

The communication, joined with all its problems, became the topic for interesting studies during the mid of 90s. This attention was due to the publication of＂Being Digital＂, wrote by Nicholas Negroponte, the first book that analyzed the communication environment in a comprehensive way. The novelty of this original book, which was immediately perceived by both the scientific and socio-economic environment, was twofold： The forecast of the revolutionary impact of digital technologies applied to the communication and the subsequent modified scenario. Nevertheless, the described scenario was contradicted or confirmed several times during last years.
The linkage between communication and socio-economic environment, after the publication of that book, represented a special focus for the scientific society since the beginning of the new millennium. The evolution of technologies involved several structural components in many different phases during last years and generated a lot of deep changes in a short time. These developing conditions made really difficult any forecasting attempt about the evolution of each technological component and, consequently, any reliable scenario for the communication environment.
The functional update of existing technologies leaded to the appearance of a new medium： Internet. This medium started with revolutionary peculiarities： low access and operating costs, multimediality, bidirectional way of usage and, above all, planetary target. The new communication tool seems to be a good candidate to substitute many of the former media or, at least, to reduce their usage in a meaningful way. Vice versa, the socio-economic effect of Internet was very weak： The new medium appears as simply added to the previous shape without meaningful influences on the diffusion of traditional media.
Nevertheless, the advantages offered by the technological innovation was not reserved only to Internet, but deeply changed all the media influencing particularly their way of supplying service. The most meaningful effects of these innovations involved both the diffusion systems and trading approach so generating a special attention also by politic environments.
The final objective of this paper is to analyze the evolution of the communication environment due to the innovation and to depict the actual communication offer. This approach will be useful to verify the conditions for reliable definition of scenarios.     

通信机房改善谐波环境措施研究

本文通过大量可信的实际通信电源机房数据,进行系统的科学的分析统计,得出了具有一定实际参考价值的结论,并结合电力谐波整改的实际情况提出了改善通信机房电力谐波环境的措施。     

Crisis Communication and Recovery for the Tourism Industry

Abstract

As the number of disasters and crises affecting the tourism industry increases, it is becoming necessary to understand the nature of these disasters and how to manage and limit the impacts of such incidents. This paper defines crises and disasters before discussing the area of crisis communication management and crisis communication in the tourism industry. The paper then applies the foot and mouth disease (FMD) which occurred in the United Kingdom to crisis communication theory at a national level (by examining the response of the British Tourist Authority) and at a local level (by examining the response of a District Council). The response was limited in part because of a lack of preparedness, but also due to the nature of the foot and mouth outbreak, and the speed and severity of international media coverage. Action was taken in the emergency phase of the crisis and was reactive involving inconsistency in developing key messages to stakeholders, partly due to confusion and a lack of information at the national level. Recovery marketing was also limited due to the length of time of the disease outbreak. This paper provides lessons for destinations and organisations are discussed which may help develop crisis communication strategies for tourism organisations.     

Limit to improvement: Myth or reality?: Empirical analysis of historical improvement on three technologies influential in the evolution of civilization

The evolution of civilization appears to have primarily resulted from continuous improvement made possible by technological advances. A group of social evolutionists and economists have identified, among others, energy, transport, as well as information and communication to be the three most influential technologies. On the other hand, a number of eminent scholars have cited several forces, natural, physiological, technological, as well as environmental which can place a limit on on-going improvement.The purpose of this paper is to empirically explore the continuous improvement process as well as the limit placed on these three technologies. Using the framework of both connected and disconnected multiple technology S-curves and X-factor, historical improvement data on these three elements have been analyzed. The results of our analysis indicate that improvement in general has continued without limit mainly due to a series of emerging new technologies. These emerging technologies can be either connected or disconnected from the existing mature technologies. Our preliminary analysis shows that much of the past improvement comes from new technologies that on first serious application appear to be substantially superior from earlier technologies. In addition, enormous continuous improvement, which has accompanied both connected and disconnected new technologies appear to have played the critical role in sustaining the evolution of civilization. The paper discusses a number of policy implications and suggests topics for future research.     

艺术传播与艺术的产业化发展关系研究——以广西审美文化为例

本文从艺术的传播与艺术的产业化发展关系出发,结合广西和百色的艺术产业化发展的案例进行分析,探究了艺术传播和艺术产业化发展的复杂关系,对艺术传播和艺术产业化发展关系研究提供了有益的尝试。     

论整合营销传播背景下房地产广告策略

在整合营销传播背景下,房地产广告策略应运用更加科学的传播理念和传播手段,采用广告信息策略、媒体组合策略、公关策略及其它可利用资源,提高广告传播效果。     

公共危机中的政府传播研究

经济与社会发展的转型期是矛盾的多发期,一些矛盾处理不当会导致群体性公共危机。本研究总结了公共危机产生的种类与原因,归纳了政府积极传播对化解公共危机的作用。通过对公共危机中有害信息传播规律的分析,并联系我国当前的传播现状——传播理念、方法、方式滞后;传播渠道协同性差;政府与部门之间无法信息共享;传统政府组织结构传播效率低,提出了改善公共危机中的政府传播需要改造传统的政务流程;完善危机政府传播机制;构建政府传播的电子政务平台。     

提升站段财会信息化水平的实践与探索

面对财会信息化建设的新课题,从构建财务信息化网络,提升数据安全防范级别,有效利用信息资源和加大人才培养力度四个方面入手,在提升站段财会信息化水平上进行诸多探索,加强铁路基层单位财务规范化管理。     

关于环保低碳节能与技术进步的研究——推节能促低碳经济

低碳经济是一种低能耗、低污染、低排放的经济模式,是人类社会的又一次巨大进步。它的本质是能源利用效率高而且清洁能源结构问题,他的核心是在能源技术方面创新、在制度方面创新和在人类生存发展观念的根本性转变。因为低碳技术能解决因CO2等温室气体过度排放而引起的气候变化生态失衡等大自然问题,也能处理能耗过高、能源短缺、环境污染等高碳经济模式下出现的社会问题。所以低碳技术能够在世界各国流行起来,发展低碳技术能够取得全人类的共识。