证券投资风险预测的E-Bayes估计

本文给出了E-Bayes方法,以上海证券个股五粮液52个连续交易日的收盘价格为例,建立数学模型进行分析和预测,预测结果与市场实际值相当吻合。与灰色系统理论中的GM（1,1）预测模型相比,本文提出的方法预测的精度更高,计算量小。不仅适用于经济系统的分析与预测,也适用于其它系统的分析与预测。     

生态税与低碳经济发展

低碳经济是生态文明建设的客观要求,也是实现人与自然和谐的必然选择。文章从当前生态环境面临市场和政府干预失灵难题的基础上,分析了发展生态税对发展低碳经济的意义,进而提出建立和完善生态税促进低碳经济发展的政策建议。     

Communication,Excess Comovement and Factor Structures

This paper develops a model in which investors communicate before trading in a general equilibrium. Investors repeatedly communicate in a social network but have limited knowledge of the network structure and thus do not fully realize the consequences of their communication and belief updating. As a result, asset returns contain excess comovement and more concentrated factor structures than fundamental values do. The model generates testable empirical predictions that are consistent with the empirical literature on excess comovement in asset returns.     

Supporting ALARP decision making by cost benefit analysis and multiattribute utility theory

Current guidance in the UK and elsewhere indicate upper and target risk limits for the operation of nuclear plant in terms of individual risk per annum. ‘As low as reasonably practicable’ (ALARP) arguments are used to justify the acceptance or rejection of policies that lead to risk changes between these limits. The suitability of cost‐benefit analysis (CBA) and multiattribute utility theory (MAUT) are assessed for performing ALARP (‘as low as reasonably possible’) assessments, in particular within the nuclear industry. Four problems stand out in current CBA applications to ALARP, concerning the determination of prices of safety gains or detriments, the valuation of group and individual risk, calculations using ‘disproportionality’, and the use of discounting to trade‐off risks through time. This last point has received less attention in the past but is important because of the growing interest in risk‐informed regulation in which policies extend over several timeframes and distribute the risk unevenly over these, or in policies that lead to a nonuniform risk within a single timeframe (such as maintenance policies). The problems associated with giving quantitative support to such decisions are discussed. It is argued that multiattribute utility methods (MAUT) provide an alternative methodology to CBA which enable the four problems described above to be addressed in a more satisfactory way. Through sensitivity analysis MAUT can address the perceptions of all stakeholder groups, facilitating constructive discussion and elucidating the key points of disagreement. It is also argued that by being explicitly subjective it provides an open, auditable and clear analysis in contrast to the illusory objectivity of CBA. CBA seeks to justify a decision by using a common basis for weights (prices), while MAUT recognizes that different parties may want to give different valuations. It then allows the analyst to explore the ways in which different parties might (or might not) come to the same conclusion even when weighting items differently.     

“低碳”条件下后发地区发展战略研究——以湖北省黄冈市为例

在“低碳”条件下，后发地区如何发展经济，造福一方百姓，是需要认真研究的现实问题。以湖北省黄冈市为例，提出四个转向：用“多元经济”取代单一工业发展模式；用“人口进城”取代单一GDP数字增长；用“项目招标”取代单一招商引资工作和用“就业创业”取代单一社会管理控制，用新的价值取向取代原有的社会运作模式。     

Discourse and practice of participatory flood risk management in Belfast,UK

The introduction of the Floods Directive signals a move from flood protection towards flood risk management in the European Union. Public participation is highlighted in the Floods Directive as being instrumental to effective implementation of this new approach. This study utilised document analysis, non-participant observation, a questionnaire survey, and interviews to evaluate the discourse and practice of participation in the implementation of the Floods Directive in Belfast, United Kingdom. Flood risk management processes in Belfast are found to be high on participatory rhetoric but low on meaningful engagement. The participatory process is lacking in transparency, does not encourage the active participation of interested parties and has not been clearly communicated to key publics. Opportunities to increase meaningful public participation in the process remain underutilised, and the establishment of local flood forums has provided little opportunity for meaningful engagement. Some actions of governance agencies could be best characterised as facilitating the responsibilisation of risk and are designed to manage risk to agencies rather than address flooding issues.     

非语言交际对利玛窦在华传教的影响

明末清初时期,利玛窦与中国士大夫的交往是其在华传教活动的重要组成部分,其中非语言因素在其成功交际中起着重要的作用。利玛窦利用服饰的变化表明自己的身份和立场,借用西洋器物传播西方先进的科技文明,通过著书立说的形式广结权贵,施展个人魅力笼络人心。利玛窦与中国士大夫阶层的紧密互动为其在中国传教奠定了基础并开创了新的格局。     

大学生低碳消费行为影响机制与引导策略研究——基于ANP模型

发展低碳经济已经在世界各国达成普遍共识,低碳消费成为发展低碳经济不可或缺的重要组成部分。大学生作为未来社会主义事业的建设者和接班人,其日常生活活动对于经济社会的发展起着重要作用,其低碳消费行为制约影响着中国低碳经济发展的进程。本文采用ANP分析法,探讨影响其低碳消费的各项因素及机制,最后提出引导大学生低碳消费的策略和建议。     

积极推动辽宁与台湾地区本科教育交流与合作

近年来,随着中外以及海峡两岸教育交流合作的加强,中国本科教育国际化进程飞速发展。辽宁作为中国北方的经济和教育大省应顺应这个国际化潮流,加强与台湾高校的教育交流合作。通过介绍辽宁与台湾本科教育交流合作的背景和现状,阐述了辽宁与台湾本科教育合作与发展中存在的问题,并提出了相应的对策和建议,以期促进辽宁与台湾本科教育交流与合作向更加广度和深度发展     

Forecasting and decomposition of portfolio credit risk using macroeconomic and frailty factors

This paper presents a dynamic portfolio credit model following the regulatory framework, using macroeconomic and latent risk factors to predict the aggregate loan portfolio loss in a banking system. The latent risk factors have three levels: global across the entire banking system, parent-sectoral for the intermediate loan sectors and sector-specific for the individual loan sectors. The aggregate credit loss distribution of the banking system over a risk horizon is generated by Monte Carlo simulation, and a quantile estimator is used to produce the aggregate risk measure and economic capital. The risk contributions of the individual sectors and risk factors are measured by combining the Hoeffding decomposition with the Euler capital allocation rule. For the U.S. banking system, we find that the real GDP growth rate, the global and sector-wide frailty risk factors and their spillovers significantly affect loan defaults, and the impacts of the frailty factors are not only economy-wide but also sector-specific. We also find that the frailty risk factors make more significant risk contributions to the aggregate portfolio risk than the macroeconomic factors, while the macroeconomic factors help to improve the accuracy and efficiency of the credit risk forecasts.