利差演进、利差层次与我国利差结构分析

本文从金融学视角揭示了商业银行存贷款利差、中央银行与商业银行利差和国内与国际金融市场利差三个层次,并指出利差三个层次构成了有机的统一体.作者对建国以来历次利率调整进行了综合系统分析,勾画出我国利差变化的轨迹,得出以下基本结论:中国人民银行对利差管理从无序逐步过渡到有序,利差体系从扭曲逐步得到矫正,在金融管制环境下实现了利率总体水平的国际化"磨合".存在的主要问题是:存贷款利差考虑商业银行收益因素较多,兼顾国际化竞争不足;邮政储蓄转存利差在体现政策性的同时负效应越来越大;再贷款利差调整频繁和扩张太快,透视出金融宏观调控手段相对单一.     

青藏高原东缘山地古冰川沉积物化学参数指示意义

对于冰川沉积物化学特征的分析,可以有效地反映当地古环境的气候状况,本文通过对青藏高原东缘的古冰川山地的冰碛物进行采样,结合部分其他山地样品数据,进行地球化学元素实验,计算以及对比其化学参数。得到青藏高原东缘等十处古冰川山地冰川沉积物化学组分构成,利用CIA等参数分析其对当地环境的指示意义。     

The Dutch urban ground lease: A valuable tool for land policy?

Once heralded by both liberals and socialists as a tool for Dutch municipal governments to prevent land speculation and to implement spatial policies, a century later the Dutch ground lease (erfpacht) is now despised by many. The ground lease was the subject of strong debate in the recent past and is likely to remain so. It has been argued that lessees should have the right to become owner of the land, and this ‘right to buy’ has indeed been implemented in the land policies of several municipalities. The Dutch urban ground lease seems to be under serious pressure. Is it outdated or is it still a valuable tool for land policy? Before we answer this question, we firstly will provide an historical overview of Dutch ground lease. Secondly, the different types of ground lease will be elaborated. Thirdly, the focus will be on the urban ground lease used by Dutch municipalities and the developments in the use of this instrument. Fourthly, the recent policy changes will be dealt with, followed by an assessment.     

荒地资源持续利用研究

荒地资源的持续利用应该考虑采用不同于传统资源开发的模式与思路：指出荒地资源开发中自然生态环境的退化是开发中遇到的最大的问题;对荒地资源开发中这些问题的出现进行了经济学分析．指出需求拉动、市场缺乏、价格扭曲、外部性未内化、产权不明晰及缺乏认识和短视行为等因素是荒地资源配置效率低下．引发生态环境退化的重要原因;对荒地资源价格进行估算．依据边际社会成本（MSC）定价法．指出荒地资源价格包括边际私人成本和边际环境成本两部分．并分别对剩余法、替代成本法和贴现率的选择进行了探讨．指出贴现率选择对于生态环境退化是至关重要的．提出了荒地资源持续利用的思路与模式。     

#br# 融资融券加大了沪深股市波动吗*

融资融券设计初衷是通过融资加强市场流动性和通过融券提供投资者规避价格下跌风险的金融工具,改善由供求关系严重失衡导致市场巨幅震荡的局面,实现资本市场长期稳定的目标。实际操作中,融资融券疏通货币市场和资本市场间的资金流动,撬动巨额资金涌入股市;融资规模扩张过快而融券做空力量薄弱,业务结构发展严重失衡,导致两融业务具有“小冲击、大波动”的金融加速效应,放大了外部冲击引起股价上涨和下跌的幅度。协整回归分析表明,两融业务规模的扩张和收缩对上证指数涨跌具有显著的同向影响。TGARCH事件模型结果进一步证实融资融券从稳定股价到加剧波动的功能变化。随着标的股票扩容和业务常规化,两融业务导致股市投机过度,加剧了沪深两市的资产价格异动,没有达到平抑波动的设计预期。     

The new goods margin in new markets

We analyze the role of the new goods margin in the Baltic countries’ exports and imports growth during the 1995–2008 period. Using the methodology developed in Kehoe and Ruhl (2013), we define the set of least-traded goods as those that account for the lowest 10% of total exports and imports in 1995, and then trace its growth in several markets including the Baltics’ main trade partners, the European Union and Russia. We find that, on average, by 2008 least-traded goods accounted for nearly 50% of total Baltic exports to their main trade partners. Moreover, we find that increases in the share of least-traded exports coincided with the timing of the trade liberalization reforms implemented by the Baltic countries. Least-traded imports also grew at robust rates, but their growth was lower than that of exports, accounting for slightly less than a quarter of total imports, that is, about half of the exports value. Moreover, we find that the shares of least-traded imports from the EU 15 and from Russia started diverging around the time the Baltic countries joined the EU, with the EU 15 share increasing and the Russian one declining. We also find that the Baltics’ share of least-traded exports outpaced that of other economies in Central and Eastern Europe. Finally, exports of new goods from the Baltic countries suffered noticeably during the Global Financial Crisis. After the crisis ended, the restart in new goods exports growth displayed mixed patterns.     

政府规制与中国稀土产品出口增长的二元边际——对2001—2012年微观贸易数据的实证分析

采用HS?6位数级微观贸易数据,计算2001—2012年中国稀土产品出口增长的二元边际,并进一步分析相对出口规制程度、相对产量与出口增长二元边际之间的相互影响,结果表明：中国稀土产品出口规制政策对稀土产品出口增长的集约边际和扩展边际都有促进作用,其中对集约边际的影响更大;而相对产量对二元边际有负面影响。在中国经济新常态下,随着稀土产品出口规制政策的逐步弱化,应加强对稀土产业的生产规制,提高产品附加值,实现从规模速度型粗放增长向质量效率型集约增长的转变;并积极开拓新的出口市场,促进稀土产业的良性扩张。     

Flexibility at the Margin and Labor Market Volatility in OECD Countries*

We study the business‐cycle behavior of segmented labor markets with flexibility at the margin (e.g., just affecting fixed‐term contracts). We present a matching model with temporary and permanent jobs (i) where there is a gap in the firing costs associated with these types of jobs and (ii) where there are restrictions in the creation and duration of fixed‐term contracts. We show that a labor market with ``flexibility at the margin'' increases the unemployment volatility with respect to one that is fully regulated. This analysis yields new insights into the interpretation of the recent volatility changes witnessed in the OECD area.     

Patterns of growth in Chinese cities: Implications of the land lease

A special feature of China’s housing market is land use rights in the form of land leasehold contracts granted by the government. We consider an equilibrium model in which a representative developer may choose to redevelop existing centrally located housing or to develop new housing at the periphery of the city. We show that as the city grows, the land leasehold system results in the city center being developed less intensely and more land being used on the outskirts of the city when compared to a fee simple environment. Thus, cities in China are likely to be relatively more spread out, with city centers relatively older than would be the case with “fee simple” ownership. Our model suggests that excess residential land use is about 6 percent. In addition, compared with the ownership case, housing supply will grow more quickly in the near future, but more slowly later on during the transition of the Chinese economy. Parallel to the supply growth pattern, equilibrium price grows relative slowly in the near future, but more quickly later on. While we focus on residential uses, we believe our model can be applied to other land uses.     

The myth of discount promotions

Operators need to fully understand the impact that discounting has on overall financial results. Studies indicate that lowering prices can cause profits to be reduced, even with increased sales. Not all discount promotions result in increased sales and the consequences are demonstrated through tables and graphs.Every promotion has a ‘relevant’ range such that the ‘right’ increase in covers/sales allows the operator to offset the increased costs and improve on the return that would have been realized without the discount promotion. The operator can determine the increase in sales or customer counts required from the promotion to realize an increase in gross profit. If the customer/sales increase is unrealistic, the discount terms can be adjusted accordingly.