中国国债发行规模影响因素的实证研究

基于VAR模型,并运用协整检验、方差分解、向量自回归误差修正模型的计量经济分析方法,对我国国债规模的影响因素进行实证分析.实证结果显示,我国国债发行规模与国内生产总值、财政赤字、国债还本付息额、居民储蓄之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,影响国债规模的主要因素是国内生产总值、居民储蓄、国债发行规模本身、财政赤字.     

A contribution to the assessment of scenic quality of landscapes based on preferences expressed by the public

The purpose of this paper is to validate a model for predicting the public's preference for a landscape using simple statistical techniques. The model assigns numerical values to 42 landscape variables grouped into physical, aesthetic and psychological attributes. The landscape value is obtained using an additive value function. The results of the model on certain landscapes are compared with the preference expressed by the public in a survey of 183 people.The homogeneity of the survey responses was checked in each photograph. It was determined that means and standard deviations of the scores represent the true preference.A strong positive association was observed between preference and certain landscape attributes such as expression, soil use or colour. A marked negative association was detected with respect to landscape alterations.A linear regression was carried out to analyse the predictive capacity of the model. The independent variable was the global score assigned by the model to each photograph and the dependant variable was the mean of the scores assigned by the survey respondents. The high level of correlation obtained indicates that the model is a good predictor of the public's preferences in relation to the set of photographs shown in the survey.To complete the analysis of the model as a preference predictor, a multiple linear regression was carried out between the mean score obtained in the survey and the model elements. Attributes and variables that have the greatest influence on pubic preference were detected.     

农业劳动日工价对农民收入水平影响的实证研究——基于协整和向量自回归模型

选取1978年-2008年全国农业劳动日工价和农民人均纯收入的时间序列数据,通过基于VAR模型的协整分析、脉冲响应分析和方差分解的有机结合进行研究,发现两序列间存在长期均衡。对标准化协整方程和误差校正模型的分析表明,抽样区间的农民人均纯收入增长对农业劳动日工价形成了长期的、稳定的依赖,且后者是前者的格兰杰原因。脉冲响应分析和方差分解均显示,来自劳动日工价在过去三十年内对农民人均纯收入产生了持续性的贡献。实证结果表明,农业劳动日工价与农民人均纯收入具有长期稳定的关系,需要逐步提高偏低的农业劳动日工价。     

安徽省耕地集约利用及其驱动力分析

研究目的：分析近10年来安徽省耕地集约利用变化及其驱动力。研究方法：综合指数评价法、聚类分析法、因子分析法。研究结果：（1）全省耕地集约利用水平时序变化性明显。从“十五”期间和“九五”期间相比来看,除滁州、六安、黄山三个地市以外,全省其他14个地市的耕地利用集约度都有不同程度的提高。（2）全省耕地利用集约度空间差异显著,总体上呈北高南低的特点。（3）社会经济因素、耕作制度因素和自然因素是影响安徽省耕地集约利用的主要驱动因子。研究结论：应用综合评价法进行耕地利用集约度评价以及采用因子分析法进行驱动力分析,评价结果与现实情况基本吻合,具有一定的可行性。     

中国玉米期货市场的价格引导作用究竟有多大?——基于VECM模型的实证分析

基于Johansen协整分析、向量误差修正模型(VECM)以及方差分解等计量分析方法对中国的玉米期货市场、玉米现货市场、CBOT玉米期货市场以及中国大豆期货市场四者之间的动态关系与相互冲击机制进行了深入的研究。研究发现:四个市场的一阶非平稳的时间序列构成了协整关系,即它们之间具备了长期均衡关系,中国玉米期货市场对现货市场以及存在关联性的大豆期货市场具有良好的价格发现与引导功能。但是由于我国玉米产业对外开放程度不够,所以我国的玉米期货在国际玉米定价体系中还没有达到支配性的地位。     

快速城镇化地区不同生计类型农户耕地利用集约度评价 ——以上海市青浦区为例

研究目的:针对快速城镇化地区农户生计分化现象,以上海市青浦区为例,对不同生计策略类型农户的耕地利用集约度进行评价,并分析其影响因素,以期为改善农户土地利用行为、实现土地资源合理高效利用与农户生计可持续发展提供政策参考。研究方法:运用价值形态测度方法核算各生计类型农户的耕地利用集约度,以两水平方差成分模型确定耕地利用集约度影响因素。研究结果:(1)不同生计策略类型农户耕地利用集约度存在差异性,大小顺序依次为专业农业型、传统农业型、农业兼业型、非农兼业型,劳动集约度与资本集约度排序与之基本一致;(2)同一生计策略类型农户的耕地利用集约度存在相似性,耕地利用集约度的总变异中有24.32%是由农户生计策略类型不同而引起的,水平一中农业收入比重、农业补贴、耕地面积、地块平均离家距离、农户离集镇距离与水平二中是否兼业等是影响农户耕地利用集约度的显著因素;(3)模型拟合效果评价表明该方法具有可行性。研究结论:耕地利用集约度不仅与农户自身禀赋有关,而且受生计类型影响,政府相关部门应结合当地实际情况引导农户对这两方面进行调整或完善。     

Time orientation and construal level: effects on eating and exercising behaviour and preferences

Eating and exercising behaviour are both characterized by immediate and future consequences. Consequently, consideration of these consequences (i.e. time orientation) predicts eating and exercising behaviour. We investigate whether construal level acts as an underlying mechanism of these relations. Students (N = 101) completed measures of consideration of immediate and future consequences (i.e. CFC‐food and CFC‐exercise), construal level, eating and exercising behaviour and preferences. For self‐reported eating and exercising behaviour, only direct effects of consideration of immediate and future consequences were found. For eating preferences, however, there was evidence of an indirect effect through construal level. A stronger tendency to consider future consequences led to a stronger preference for utilitarian (as compared with hedonic) food products through a more abstract construal level. All in all, construal level partially explains the differential relations between consideration of immediate and future consequences and eating and exercising behaviour and preferences.     

Consumer sorting and hedonic valuation of wine attributes: exploiting data from a field experiment

This article uses a novel experimental approach to measure consumer willingness to pay (WTP) for wine attributes. We invited customers of a local supermarket who had selected a bottle of wine to purchase to participate in a valuation experiment. Integrating their original wine choice into the experiment, each participant evaluated six alternative wines, generating a rich set of data on willingness to pay and consumer characteristics. The data from the experiment allow us to compare standard shelf price‐based wine attribute valuation estimates with estimates using WTP data and an increasing amount of information about individual consumers. The full model employs individual fixed effects to estimate WTP parameters without bias from consumer sorting or supply side influences. Our WTP estimates for wine attributes differ markedly from previous attribute value estimates. Consumers in our sample display clear and stable preferences for wine varieties, but less clear preferences for appellations. Our results suggest caution is needed in using market prices to estimate parameters of the consumer valuation function for product attributes.     

Simplified Jackknife Variance Estimates for Fuzzy Measures of Multidimensional Poverty

In this paper, we present a practical methodology for variance estimation for multi‐dimensional measures of poverty and deprivation of households and individuals, derived from sample surveys with complex designs and fairly large sample sizes. The measures considered are based on fuzzy representation of individuals' propensity to deprivation in monetary and diverse non‐monetary dimensions. We believe this to be the first original contribution for estimating standard errors for such fuzzy poverty measures. The second objective is to describe and numerically illustrate computational procedures and difficulties in producing reliable and robust estimates of sampling error for such complex statistics. We attempt to identify some of these problems and provide solutions in the context of actual situations. A detailed application based on European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions data for 19 NUTS2 regions in Spain is provided.