基于Logistic模型的商业银行个人消费信贷风险评估研究

在消费者“贷款消费”意识不断增强的今天,伴随而来的风险问题也不断显现出来,特别是个人信用风险首当其冲。基于商业银行个人消费信贷的实际操作数据和Logistic回归模型,利用SPSS17.0统计软件构建个人信用评分模型。通过实证,测得借款人的年龄、婚姻状况、受教育程度等六项指标是影响个人信用风险的关键因素。最后,提出了防范个人消费贷款风险的相关建议。     

抗战爆发后华商证券交易所沦为政策市的原因及影响

抗战爆发后,我国政经局势动荡,自由的经济与金融体制为统制经济与金融的体制所取代。关内外各个行政当局出于特定政治目的或政策的需要,在其控制区内或直接对华商证券交易所发号施令或改变其营业环境,以行政手段来左右华商证券交易所的拆分、撤并、设立、停业和复业,致使证交所蜕化为政策性的市场,沦为官方相机抉择的财经政策的工具,丧失了经营上的自主性和稳定性,既不能持续、稳定和有效地为产业融资服务,又不利于证交所自身的平稳发展。其中的教训需引以为戒。     

Do changes in credit ratings of REITs affect their capital structure decisions?

Existing research has highlighted the high leverage ratio of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). To the extent that credit rating is important to REITs when sourcing for capital from the public debt markets, our paper investigates the effect of changes in REIT credit ratings on capital structure decisions while controlling for endogeneity effects. Our results indicate that REITs that face the prospect of an imminent credit rating downgrade issue approximately 11% less debt net of equity as a percentage of total assets than other REITs. This effect is asymmetric in that positive rating outlooks do not have a significant impact on REIT capital structure activities.     

商贾历史剧中的儒商文化及其现代意义

近年来商贾历史剧热播,中国近现代史上的商人风采、商场风云异彩纷呈,有力地展现了仁、德、信、义等富有中国儒家传统特色的商业文化、道德和伦理,可为现代市场经济发展提供新的＂契机＂,为构建现代商业伦理提供新的文化资源。     

“士魂”与“商才”：儒商文化内涵界定问题辨

要疏解儒商文化的现代转型意义,必须对＂儒商＂及其品格进行理论辨析。一要从儒学流变角度来分析儒商之可能,做到＂儒商＂的名至实归、名副其实;二是对＂儒商＂品格作一内在分梳,疏释＂士魂＂与＂商才＂的应该具有的理论内涵,从而纠正有关儒商文化方面的一些习以为常的错误看法。     

我国外部评级使用现状和发展方向

近几年,我国债券市场发展迅猛,外部评级在我国资本市场中发挥的作用越发凸显。然而,由于对信用评级的认识偏差,我国在对外部评级的使用方面存在一些问题,阻碍了我国债券市场以及资本市场的发展。借鉴国外在使用外部评级方面的先进经验,我国除应继续发挥外部评级的作用外,也应及时纠正对外部评级的不合理使用问题,减少对外部评级的过度依赖和不当使用。     

An Extension and Further Validation of the Potential for Conflict Index

The Potential for Conflict Index (PCI) was developed to facilitate understanding and applicability of leisure, recreation, and human dimensions findings to managerial concerns. The PCI ranges from 0 (minimal potential for conflict) to 1 (maximum potential for conflict) and simultaneously describes a variable's central tendency, dispersion, and shape using a graphic display. This article (a) describes applications of the original formulation of the PCI (PCI₁) to illustrate the statistic's practical utility, (b) introduces the second generation of the PCI (PCI₂) and discusses enhancements incorporated in this version, (c) describes efforts to validate the PCI₂, and (d) offers suggestions for continuing the empirical validation process. Programs for calculating, graphing, and comparing PCI₂ values are freely available from http://welcome.warnercnr.colostate.edu/~jerryv.     

The use of earnings and operations management to avoid credit rating downgrades

Firms placed on negative credit watch face the threat of a credit rating downgrade. At the same time, they are given the opportunity to put recovery efforts in place to retain their current credit rating. In this paper, we test to what extent firms use earnings management as a short-term recovery strategy. We find that both accruals-based and real earnings management are associated with firms avoiding credit rating downgrades, and that these alternative earnings management strategies tend to be complements rather than substitutes. However, following the passage of the Sarbanes–Oxley Act, only real earnings management is significantly associated with the credit watch outcome. We find evidence that firms which maintain their rating via earnings management are better able to afford the inevitable earnings reversals, and that in the year following the credit watch period, the credit rating performance of these firms is significantly better than firms which undergo a downgrade, with fewer downgrades and more upgrades in this period. Our results also imply that credit rating agencies are not misled by earnings management but rather allow for some discretion in reporting earnings that facilitates the dissemination of private information about future firm performance.     

Anomalies and financial distress

This paper explores commonalities across asset pricing anomalies. In particular, we assess implications of financial distress for the profitability of anomaly-based trading strategies. Strategies based on price momentum, earnings momentum, credit risk, dispersion, idiosyncratic volatility, and capital investments derive their profitability from taking short positions in high credit risk firms that experience deteriorating credit conditions. In contrast, the value-based strategy derives most of its profitability from taking long positions in high credit risk firms that survive financial distress and subsequently realize high returns. The accruals anomaly is an exception. It is robust among high and low credit risk firms in all credit conditions.     

Do Credit Ratings Really Affect Capital Structure?

This paper revisits recent investigations into the role credit ratings play in the marginal financing behavior of firms. Although it has long been documented that credit ratings may be an important determinant of firm capital structure policy, academics have only recently subjected this motivation to empirical scrutiny. We add to the brief existing literature by investigating the sensitivity of marginal financing behavior of firms to a number of attributes deemed to capture firms’ affinity to emphasize credit ratings in their financing behavior. Our results suggest that credit ratings are not a first‐order concern in capital structure decisions.