HIGH‐ORDER SHORT‐TIME EXPANSIONS FOR ATM OPTION PRICES OF EXPONENTIAL LÉVY MODELS

The short‐time asymptotic behavior of option prices for a variety of models with jumps has received much attention in recent years. In this work, a novel second‐order approximation for at‐the‐money (ATM) option prices is derived for a large class of exponential Lévy models with or without Brownian component. The results hereafter shed new light on the connection between both the volatility of the continuous component and the jump parameters and the behavior of ATM option prices near expiration. In the presence of a Brownian component, the second‐order term, in time‐t, is of the form , with d₂ only depending on Y, the degree of jump activity, on σ, the volatility of the continuous component, and on an additional parameter controlling the intensity of the “small” jumps (regardless of their signs). This extends the well‐known result that the leading first‐order term is . In contrast, under a pure‐jump model, the dependence on Y and on the separate intensities of negative and positive small jumps are already reflected in the leading term, which is of the form . The second‐order term is shown to be of the form and, therefore, its order of decay turns out to be independent of Y. The asymptotic behavior of the corresponding Black–Scholes implied volatilities is also addressed. Our method of proof is based on an integral representation of the option price involving the tail probability of the log‐return process under the share measure and a suitable change of probability measure under which the pure‐jump component of the log‐return process becomes a Y‐stable process. Our approach is sufficiently general to cover a wide class of Lévy processes, which satisfy the latter property and whose Lévy density can be closely approximated by a stable density near the origin. Our numerical results show that the first‐order term typically exhibits rather poor performance and that the second‐order term can significantly improve the approximation's accuracy, particularly in the absence of a Brownian component.     

The effect of prior outcomes on gender risk-taking differences

This study proposed that men are more likely to take greater risk after a win (‘house money’ effect), while women are more likely to take greater risk after a loss (‘escalation of commitment’ effect). These effects are, however, moderated by prior experiences in risk-taking and role characteristics. Three distinct groups of 30 subjects (total?=?90) each were solicited to play an experimental betting game. The subjects were categorized into risk providers (RP), risk customers (RC), and non-risk customers (NRC). RP are represented by casino executives, RC by leisure life-time casino gamblers, and NRC by non-casino gamblers. On average, RC group was found to take most betting risk. Male RCs were more likely to bet more after a win, while female RCs were more likely to bet more after a loss. NRCs, irrespective of gender, were more likely to bet more after a loss. There were no gender risk-taking differences in prior outcomes in the RP group.     

Magic mirror in my hand … How trade mirror statistics can help us detect illegal financial flows

Misreporting tricks of different sorts applied to the transfer of goods between different countries are typically exploited by criminals worldwide for money laundering ends. The main international anti‐money laundering organisations started paying attention to this phenomenon, dubbed “trade‐based money laundering” (TBML), a long time ago, but the failure to develop appropriate analytical tools has reportedly dogged preventive actions. Nonetheless, literature has widely advocated the possibility that the analysis of inconsistencies in mirrored bilateral trade data could provide some help. By building on previous contributions in the field, this work sets up a model factoring in the main structural determinants of discrepancies between mirrored data concerning Italy's 2010 to 2013 external trade at a highly detailed (6‐digit) level of goods classification for each partner country. Point estimates of freight costs are used to net each observation of the corresponding cif/fob discrepancy. The regression estimates are then deployed in order to compute TBML risk indicators at a country/4‐digit product level. Based on the indicators, rankings of countries and product lines can be compiled, which may be used for a risk‐driven search of potential illegal commercial transactions.     

对大学生产生重大影响的社会思潮

西方自由主义、拜金主义、享乐主义、个人主义、功利主义等是影响当代大学生思想的主要社会思潮。大学生易受不良思潮影响的原因在于缺乏历史知识,政治理论学习不深入,同时受西方思想文化的长期影响。所以要正确引导学生自觉学习政治理论,系统全面了解社会发展史,树立正确的人生观和价值观。同时网络、影视、报刊等媒体要有一个正确的导向,给大学生成长营造出一个好的成长环境。     

货币供应量统计口径演变历程及其影响

文章在介绍货币供应量统计口径调整的基本原则并回顾其在我国经历的三次调整及其原因的基础上,详细分析了目前货币供应量统计指标的组成部分及其中需注意的问题,说明了目前尚未计入M2的货币相关成分。最后,文章分析了货币供应量统计口径可能的调整对我国宏观调控和金融市场发展等方面的影响。     

货币信用属性演化的历史与逻辑

通过讨论主要货币起源与演化理论的矛盾与不足,从货币取得人们信任的角度,尝试整合了货币起源与演化的事实与逻辑,由此可以认为货币的本质是信用,(商品、金属)货币和纸币一样都是信用货币,货币演化是货币内涵的威权因素和物的因素相互竞争的结果;且货币制度的核心是信用。维持人们对货币的信心与币值稳定应当是任何货币调控的出发点和归宿。     

略论中国经济的流动性过剩——基于经济学视角

在总结了目前理论界对流动性过剩的观点的基础上,分析了中国经济的流动性过剩的现状,并从货币的供给与需求的角度分析了其产生的根源,最后提出了治理中国经济流动性过剩问题的对策与建议。     

货币供给、通货膨胀和粮食价格波动互动关系研究

在VAR模型和方差分解基础上,利用1997年以来的月度数据,分析货币供应量、通货膨胀和粮食价格之间的关系。结果显示：通货膨胀对粮食价格有显著影响,存在货币供应量、通货膨胀到粮食价格变动这一传导途径,同时发现通货膨胀有较强的自身惯性,通过抑制粮食价格来控制通货膨胀是无效的。     

企业员工薪酬公平感的中介作用:基于金钱崇拜与组织公民行为的关系

选取297名企业员工为样本, 通过问卷调查, 分析企业员工金钱崇拜心理与其组织公民行为之间的关系, 并探讨薪酬公平感在金钱崇拜与组织公民行为关系中的中介作用。结果表明: 员工金钱崇拜与组织公民行为之间显著正相关;员工薪酬公平感对金钱崇拜与组织公民行为关系起到部分中介作用。     

中国货币供应、通货膨胀及经济增长关系实证研究

采用协整与方差分解的方法时中国货币供应、通货膨胀与经济增长的关系进行实证研究发现,通货膨胀与经济增长在短期和长期中作用关系相反,但都具有回归自然水平趋势,货币供应时通货膨胀和经济增长的影响具有滞后效应,长期内货币非中性。而通货膨胀和经济增长并不影响货币供应。一方面。应当采取措施降低货币供应增长率：另一方面,偏紧货币政策的滞后效应可能导致经济紧缩应当采取措施降低货币供应增长率,因此应谨慎调控宏观经济政策,以避免金融风险。