中国金融市场分割问题探源

银行的不良贷款问题得到了学术界的广泛关注,而金融体系中另一个潜在的缺陷,资本的低效率使用问题却没有引起足够的重视。金融理论告诉我们分割的金融市场是阻碍资本自由流动的原因, 本文的目的在于对我国金融市场分割的原因进行探讨。     

Valuing Mortgage Insurance Contracts in Emerging Market Economies

We develop a new option-based method for the valuation of mortgage insurance contracts in closed form in an economy where agents are risk neutral. While the proposed valuation method is general and can be used in any market, it may be particularly useful in emerging market economies where other existing methods may be either inappropriate or are too difficult to implement because of the lack of relevant data. As an application, we price a typical Serbian government-backed mortgage insurance contract.     

The Informational Efficiency of the Equity Market As Compared to the Syndicated Bank Loan Market

The loan market is a hybrid between a public and a private market, comprised of financial institutions with access to private information about borrowing firms. We test whether this is reflected in informationally efficient price formation in the loan market vis-a-vis the equity markets, and reject this private information hypothesis. We also reject a liquidity hypothesis which suggests that equity markets always lead loan markets, despite bank lenders' access to private information, because of greater liquidity in equity markets. We further test, and reject, an asymmetric price reaction hypothesis that states that loan returns are more sensitive to negative information whereas equity returns respond symmetrically to both positive and negative information. We find evidence most consistent with an integrated markets hypothesis that suggests that both the equity and syndicated bank loan markets are highly integrated such that information flows freely across markets. This is particularly true when the equity market makers are also loan syndicate members.      

新重商主义与美国金融霸权的失落——从贸易战争到货币战争

金融危机后国际上依然难以摆脱重商主义"治国术",这种理念根植于近代强国之梦身后的重商主义历史。如今,美国新自由主义外衣下,推行重金式的新重商主义政策,并具有金融帝国主义的特征。从早期实施贸易战争到当前的货币战争,债务型的美元信用不断自贬,虽然消融了主权债务并窃取了财富,但也导致美国新重商主义最终走上荷兰式衰落之路。马克思主义揭示的资本衰亡规律,依旧深刻而富有生命力。中国应当摆脱美国新重商主义的纠缠,改进中国出口模式。     

Financial components of FDI and choice of capital structure: an analysis for 30 OECD countries

Even though the choice of capital structure depends on the three different financial components of foreign direct investment (FDI), previous research has regarded FDI as unidimensional rather than multidimensional. This study addresses new findings in the FDI area and investigates the relevant determinants of capital structure in 30 OECD countries from 2006 to 2014 within the framework of a simultaneous equation model. Our primary findings reveal that each component has its own deterministic features driven by relevant policy variables and risks in the market. While an increase or decrease in equity capital shows the ability of the host country to attract new investments, the subsequent components are mostly used to adjust the equity capital investment exposure.     

Canada's Housing Bubble Story: Mortgage Securitization,the State,and the Global Financial Crisis

Canada's experience during and after the financial crisis appears to distinguish it from its international peers. Canadian real estate sales and values experienced record increases since the global financial crisis emerged in 2008, rather than declines, and Canada did not witness any bank failures. The dominant trope concerning Canada's financial and housing markets is that they are sound, prudent, appropriately regulated and ‘boring but effective’. It is widely assumed that Canadian banks did not need, nor receive, a ‘bailout’, that mortgage lending standards remained high, and that the securitization of mortgages was not widespread. The truth, however, does not accord with this mainstream view. In fact, the Canadian financial and housing markets reveal marked similarities with their international peers. Canada's banks needed, and received, a substantial ‘bailout’, while federal policies before and after the financial crisis resulted in the massive growth of mortgage securitization and record household indebtedness. This article documents the growth of Canada's housing bubble, the history of mortgage securitization, and of government policies implemented before and after the crisis. Instead of making the Canadian financial and housing sectors more resilient and sustainable, the outcomes of state responses are best understood as regressively redistributive.     

New development: Can ‘public’ market-based solutions restore the banking system? The case of non-performing loans (NPLs)

The authors discuss how policy-makers could use new market-based solutions to dismantle NPLs. They examine viable solutions for NPLs and then study the Italian State Guarantee Scheme for NPL Securitization (GACS) to highlight how public actors could efficiently use public resources to solve the NPL problem.     

Why do commercial banks hold government bonds? The case of Japan

We investigate the determinants of the demand for Japanese government bonds (JGBs) by commercial banks in Japan. In particular, by estimating portfolio equations for JGB demand and bank loans, based on a panel data set from the late 1990s to the 2000s, we rigorously test the popular assertion that the long stagnation of the real economy caused a shift in the portfolios of commercial banks from bank lending to JGBs. We find that the popular assertion is not empirically supported. Rather, the portfolio shift from loans to JGBs has been caused by a fall in the ratio of the loan rate to unit lending costs, or the bank’s price–cost margin for lending.     

论我国按揭贷款市场风控体系的协调性

按揭贷款发展至今已经基本形成了风险控制体系.按揭贷款的风险控制体系包括外部监管与内部风控,具体又可分为三个层面：基础业务制度、表外业务制度与系统性风控制度,两者之间的联系在于信息不对称性,而最终的目标是确定政府与企业在各自市场中的职能.     

Is ex-post credit risk affected by the cycles? The case of Italian banks

The objective of this research is to empirically examine if both credit and business cycle affect the ex-post credit risk (i.e. non-performing loans) in the banking system of Italy for the period 1995Q1–2014Q1. The increase in NPLs post-2008 has put into question the robustness of many European banks and the stability of the whole sector. It still remains a serious challenge, especially in Italy which is one of the countries that hit by the financial crisis. By employing fixed and random effects and a dynamic GMM estimation as econometric methodologies I find results that underline common causes for NPLs. Higher NPLs in Italy are mostly due to worse macroeconomic conditions (i.e. bad phase of business cycle) and due to excess credit. Through a Granger causality test, my arguments found even more support. Such findings can be helpful when designing macro-prudential as well as NPL resolution policies.