Impact of mortgage soft information in loan pricing on default prediction using machine learning

We analyze the impact of soft information on US mortgages for default prediction and provide a new measure for lender soft information that is based on the interest rates offered to borrowers and incremental to public hard information. Hard and soft information provide for a variation in annual default probabilities of approximately 3%. Soft information has a lesser impact over time and time since origination. Lenders rely more on soft information for high-risk borrowers. Our study evidences the importance of soft information collected at loan origination.     

Current Wealth,Housing Purchase,and Private Housing Loan Demand in Japan

Japanese households accumulate wealth for down payments at a high rate. Therefore, current wealth plays an important role in home acquisition as well as public loans whose direct mortgage lending is a strong support for home purchasers. We estimate the wealth effect on private mortgage debt as well as housing consumption by applying a model where mortgage-debt demand is derived from house-purchase decisions and is determined jointly with housing consumption. We use a simultaneous equation Tobit estimation method. Wealth effects on private mortgage debt, likelihood of borrowing, and housing consumption are not elastic. On the other hand, a change in housing consumption affects the likelihood of borrowing elastically much more than the private mortgage amount of borrowers. Housing and private mortgage markets fluctuate very closely with the number of participants in the mortgage market. Therefore, the number of housing starts is linked strongly to the private mortgage market.     

券商质押贷款融资的风险平衡设计

券商的资金缺口是一种超额信贷资金缺口,这种缺口主要是由券商的超额风险产生的。通过券商质押贷款,一方面可以解决券商的超额资金缺口;另一方面也可以有效地平衡风险,关键在于进行有效的风险平衡设计。     

经济开放进程中金融危机冲击比较研究

亚洲金融危机和美国次贷危机对中国经济产生了明显的影响,但在经济开放进程中这两次危机冲击特点和结果均有所不同。本文对开放进程中金融危机向国内传导的渠道进行分析,利用指标对比分析法、干扰模型、脉冲响应以及方差分解技术分析比较了两次金融危机对我国冲击的不同影响机制。研究结论表明,在经济开放进程中,美国次贷危机对国内经济的冲击要远超于亚洲金融危机;在资本项目没有完全开放条件下,国际贸易渠道越来越成为国际金融危机冲击向国内传导的重要渠道;尽管经济开放增加了金融风险,但良好的制度设计和金融风险管理手段的加强,使金融危机通过金融渠道传导而产生的冲击波有所降低。     

银行信贷的行业产出与溢出效应

本文通过构建反映实体经济各行业之间内在联系的全局向量自回归模型,实证检验了我国商业银行信贷资金投放的行业产出效应和溢出效应。结果表明,各行业产出对信贷资金冲击的反应存在着明显的差异。在银行信贷投放趋缓的背景下,监管部门应采取相应的政策和措施,在保证信贷资金向制造业、建筑业和交通运输等行业投放的同时,引导信贷资金向第一产业和第三产业中的各行业投放,以促进国民经济结构的优化调整。     

Evaluating Real Estate Valuation Systems

A framework for comparing real estate valuation systems (including automated valuation models (AVMs) and current appraisal methods) is proposed. The density estimation and profit simulation (DEPS) method measures quality of a valuation system by simulating benefits to the mortgage lender who uses this method in mortgage underwriting to limit mortgage portfolio losses due to default. Related simple measures relevant to the selection of a valuation system are also discussed: skewness of the distribution of errors, correlation of valuation errors with current selling price errors, correlation of errors of the valuation system with errors of valuation systems used by competing mortgage lenders, and other measures.     

论信托结构的住房抵押贷款证券化

住房抵押贷款证券化在国外已有几十年的历史,而我国因商业银行对其缺乏积极性而进展缓慢。住房抵押贷款证券化在其运行过程中,面临着风险控制、法律规制和税收等诸多方面的问题。我国现行的信托法律制度,对采取信托模式实行住房抵押贷款证券化提供了法律上的可行性,但也存在着立法上的障碍和空白。只有在“信托财产双重所有权”理论的指导下,制定《信托特别法》以及规范信托受益权证的流通市场,才能真正促进我国住房抵押贷款证券化的顺利发展。     

论债转股

我国银行与企业之间的不良债务越来越多。如果这种情况继续下去 ,将导致企业破产 ,也会将银行拖垮 ,最终导致金融危机。债转股作为一种延缓矛盾和风险爆发时间应急性措施的债务重组手段 ,成功的关键在于是否能以此为契机 ,彻底转变企业经营管理机制和治理结构 ,使企业的产权明     

我国历史上田宅典权制度流变考

典权作为民法中不动产物权的一种类型，是我国所特有的。根据有关史料和典籍记载，典权在我国早已存在，历史非常之悠久。文章通过对唐、宋、元、明、清和民国时期的典权制度的考察，指出了典权制度在我国不同历史时期所呈现的不同的特点以及其存在发展的根据。文章最后还指出，我们应当充分注意到典权制度的现实价值，因而即将出台的民法典应当设专章确立典权制度。     

土地抵押、银行信贷与金融风险:理论、实证与政策分析

研究目的:探讨土地抵押融资风险的识别标准、产生原因和防范措施。研究方法:数理分析与统计和计量分析。研究结果:(1)微观层面上,银行对贷款抵押率的选择和对未来土地价格变化的预期决定土地抵押融资风险的大小;(2)宏观层面上,土地资产价值的变化决定融资风险的大小,过量的土地供应、过快增长的土地价格在扩大信贷规模的同时加大了信贷风险;(3)目前中国土地抵押融资风险产生的直接原因是法律法规的欠缺,主要原因是政府转型的滞后和银行风险管理体制的不健全,而市场环境不完善起了推动作用。研究结论:需要从完善法律法规、加快政府改革、强化银行风险管理和推进市场建设等方面防范土地抵押融资风险。