Memoryless Reigns of the “Sons of Heaven”

Human lifetimes have increasing failure rates; as people age (beyond early childhood) they are more likely to die. Viewing the succession of Chinese Emperors as a statistical ensemble we show that, unlike lifetimes, their reigns ceased at a constant rate for over two millennia, unaffected by elapsed time. In fact reign lengths of the “Sons of Heaven”, as the Chinese Emperors were known, followed a memoryless exponential distribution with a 10-year half-life. Becoming emperor not only influenced the duration of remaining life, but length of rule was independent of age at ascent. We propose an explanation for the observed exponentiality using asymptotic results from the theory of stationary stochastic processes.     

Evaluating the economy embedded in the Brazilian ethanol–gasoline flex-fuel car: a Real Options approach

The introduction of the flex-fuel cars in the Brazilian market in 2003 changed considerably the consumer decision-making process. Prior to this date, it was necessary to choose the automobile type only by gasoline or by ethanol fuel; today it is possible to choose a car type with both fuel options. This flexibility generates economic advantages for his owner, but what are the financial benefits of a flex-fuel car in comparison with a car using only gasoline? Geographically, where is the owner of the benefits from this flexibility located? This article presents an empirical application of the Real Options Theory in the analysis of the flex-fuel car option for five geographic Brazilian regions: Northern, Northeastern, Central-Western, Southeastern and Southern. The regional price differences as well as the consumer preferences of these regions were met. For this purpose, historical fuel prices were considered stochastic and following a Mean Reverting Stochastic process. The prediction and option values were generated by a Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicated that the option embedded on the Brazilian flex-fuel car adds considerable value to the owner in all regions and car models considered, with the Southeastern Region receiving most benefits by the flex option.     

Market-based capabilities and financial performance of firms: insights into marketing’s contribution to firm value

While there is recognition that market-based capabilities contribute to a firm’s financial performance, the exposition is largely conceptual (Srivastava et al. Journal of Marketing 62:2–18, 1998; Journal of Marketing 63:168–179, 1999). Using a resource based view of the firm, the present study proposes that (1) market-based assets and capabilities of a firm impacts (2) performance in three market-facing business processes (new product development, supply-chain and customer management), which in turn, influence (3) the firm’s financial performance. It develops related hypotheses and tests the framework empirically. The study also examines for the first time the interrelationship among the three business processes and their impact on the market value of firms. Further, the study examines the moderating influence of two organizational variables—size and age of the firm. Overall, the major contribution of the study is that it offers a process linkage between capabilities, process performance and financial performance. The results of this research will provide strategic insights to managers on optimal customer management, product development and supply chain strategies.

On the forecasting of the challenging world future scenarios

Logistic and power law methodologies for both retrospective and prospective analyses of extended time series describing evolutionary growth processes, in environments with finite resources, are confronted. While power laws may eventually apply only to the early stages of said growth process, the Allee logistic model seems applicable over the entire span of a long range process. On applying the Allee logistic model to both the world population and the world gross domestic product time series, from 1 to 2008 AD, a projection was obtained that along the next few decades the world should experience a new economic boom phase with the world GDP peaking around the year 2020 and proceeding from then on towards a saturation value of about 142 trillion international dollars, while the world population should reach 8.9 billion people by 2050. These results were then used to forecast the behavior of the supply and consumption of energy and food, two of the main commodities that drive the world system. Our findings suggest that unless the currently prevailing focus on economic growth is changed into that of sustainable prosperity, human society may run into a period of serious economical and social struggles with unpredictable political consequences.     

Marketing metrics' usage: Its predictors and implications for customer relationship management

This research aims to determine the conditions that foster use of marketing metrics in customer relationship management (CRM) and identify the organizational factors that strengthen/weaken the impact of usage of marketing metrics on CRM performance. Based on the customer value-based theory of the firm and the contingency perspective, a research framework was developed to shed light on the predictor roles of customer value-based organizational culture and processes in determining usage of marketing metrics, and foster an understanding of the moderating roles of marketing-supply chain conflict, and innovative value proposition on the marketing metric-performance relationships. Empirical evidence from a sample of 209 business firms confirmed the main effect that customer value-based organizational culture and processes support a firm's use of marketing metrics that in turn enhance its CRM performance. Notable moderating effects were also identified. Although marketing-supply chain conflict weakens the impact of marketing metrics usage in achieving superior CRM performance, innovative value proposition strengthens the conversion of marketing-metric-related knowledge into superior CRM performance.     

从企业价值链看电网企业“三集五大”集约化管理

用企业价值链理论分析了电网企业实施“三集五大”集约化管理的内在价值链模型,厘清了“三集”和“五大”2类活动的特性及其关系,分析了“三集五大”集约化管理的内涵和意义,从组织实施、业务整合、重点选择和信息化建设等方面提出了保障措施建议。     

网络组织流程协同效应的生成机理研究

文章主要对网络组织流程协同效应的生成机理进行深入研究。鉴于学术界对网络组织流程没有统一的认识,文章在文献分析和逻辑推理的基础上,首先明确界定了网络组织流程的内涵,进而构建了网络组织流程协同效应的概念模型,最后应用多层次回归分析对所采集的数据进行实证分析,验证网络组织流程协同效应的研究假设。结果表明,网络中结点企业间的关系强度正向影响流程协同效应,而网络组织的治理机制在关系强度与流程协同之间起着调节作用,跨组织信息系统起着部分调节作用。该结论对于网络组织的治理实践具有一定的理论和现实意义。     

风险导向审计模式在新的准则体系中的应用

2006年2月15日,财政部发布了48项中国注册会计师执业准则,新的准则体系构建了崭新的风险导向审计模型,标志着风险导向审计在我国即将步人实施阶段.本文从风险导向审计模式的含义人手,研讨了新的审计准则体系对风险导向审计模式的框架构建,以及在该模式下的审计业务主要流程.