农户生态耕种行为及其影响因素研究*——以江西省为例

[目的]为清晰识别影响农户生态耕种行为的主要因素,以期为加强耕地生态保护、保障农作物质量安全、提升农户耕种收益、实现农业现代化目标提供参考。[方法]基于江西省11市47县(区)1488份农户微观调查数据,在分析农户生态耕种特征基础上,运用二元Logistic和Probit模型对农户生态耕种行为影响因素开展实证研究。[结果]农户生态耕种10种具体行为的采纳情况差异明显,其中施用有机肥采纳程度最高,生态农业模式采纳程度最低。农户采纳生态耕种整体水平不高,但仍具备进一步推广的潜力。家庭劳动力比重、生态耕种成本认知、新型农业经营主体、法律法规认知、生态耕种收益认知、生计分化和生态环境认知等解释变量是影响农户生态耕种行为的主要内部因素,政府补贴、农田基础设施、生产交流程度、耕地质量变化和生态耕种信息获取难度等则是主要的外部影响因素。[结论]政府及基层管理部门应在推动农户非农就业生计、大力培育新型农业经营主体、加强生态耕种宣传与推广、完善政策扶持与管控机制等方面制定针对性的政策措施。     

基于面源污染约束的油菜生产效率时空变化及成因分析

[目的]分析面源污染约束条件下我国油菜生产效率的动态变化、省际差异及其影响因素,提出提升途径。[方法]采用基于非期望产出的非径向、非角度的数据包络分析模型测算面源污染约束下的油菜生产效率,根据投入冗余、期望产出不足或非期望产出冗余等,分析效率损失成因。[结果]我国油菜生产效率总体上呈现"N型"年际变化特征,其中黄淮区、江浙、重庆、青海和甘肃的油菜生产效率均值高于0.9,云贵和内蒙古的油菜生产效率则低于0.8。全国和长江流域省际差异表现为先扩大后缩小趋势,西北区省际差异最大,黄淮区省际差异最小。总氮和总磷排放量过高是长江流域乃至全国油菜生产效率损失的主要原因。近3年总氮可缩减比例均值大于30%的地区从大到小依次为湖南、内蒙古、贵州、云南和江西,总磷可缩减比例均值大于30%的地区依次为云南、贵州、四川和内蒙古。此外,湖北用工投入冗余、内蒙古化肥投入冗余和单产不足也是其油菜生产效率损失的重要原因。[结论]长江流域需重点削减氮磷径流损失,黄淮区应重点控制氮磷淋溶损失,西北区应重点治理氮磷侵蚀流失。     

新疆棉农对农业面源污染防治的态度和支付意愿研究

农业面源污染问题已经成为我国面临的最严重的环境污染问题之一,农户对农业面源污染防治的态度和支付意愿研究,对于政府制定相关政策措施意义重大。分别采用李克特五点量表、条件价值评估法、多元有序Logistic模型回归等方法对(1)棉农对农业面源污染防治的态度,(2)棉农对农业面源污染防治的支付意愿(WTP),(3)影响棉农支付意愿的社会经济因素进行研究。结果表明:新疆棉农对农业面源污染防治的态度非常积极,但是当与自身利益相冲突时,则趋向于以牺牲环境为代价;新疆每户棉农对农业面源污染防治的支付意愿是113.96元/年,49.64%的被调查者选择的支付区间是[12,60)元/年,累计百分比占70.65%;农户的教育水平和是否参加过农业专业合作组织是新疆农户农业面源污染防治支付意愿的主要影响因素。基于此,得出结论并提出相应的对策建议。     

基于离散选择模型的水质改良非市场价值评估——以滇池为例

非市场价值的评估是水质改良项目经济可行性分析或水生态补偿决策必须考虑的难题之一。该文以滇池为例,通过选择卡和开放式问卷调查获得昆明市居民对滇池水污染的认识及对水质改良的支付意愿,利用离散选择模型估计了滇池水质改良的非市场价值,利用Tobit模型分析了影响对居民最大支付意愿的影响主要因素,其中将离散选择模型用于水质改良在国内尚属首次。结果表明,多数居民对水质水污染有较清晰好的认识,居民的支付意愿与家庭收入、目标水质、对项目的了解程度、对湖泊环境影响的认识等成正相关关系;居民户对四类水和三类水水质的支付意愿分别为每月42元/月和91元/月,或504元/年和1092元/年,分别占家庭年平均收入的011%和023%;因此,可以计算算得滇池目前的水质改良到IV类和III类的非市场价值分别是6 91996万元/年和1499 3亿元/年。研究具有以下意义：首先,非市场价值是水质改良价值的重要组成部分,在评估水质改良项目的经济可行性时应给予考虑;其次,在为水质改良项目进行公共融资时,应考虑到居民支付意愿的影响因素,并让居民更多地了解水质改良对湖泊生态的影响;最后,通过对环境产品或服务的定价,将弥补未定价稀缺性所带来的经济问题。研究结果可为水质改良项目可行性分析和生态补偿决策提供参考依据。     

Developments in Survey Research over the Past 60 Years: A Personal Perspective

Many developments have occurred in the practice of survey sampling and survey methodology in the past 60 years or so. These developments have been partly driven by the emergence of computers and the continuous growth in computer power over the years and partly by the increasingly sophisticated demands from the users of survey data. The paper reviews these developments with a main emphasis on survey sampling issues for the design and analysis of social surveys. Design‐based inference based on probability samples was the predominant approach in the early years, but over time, that predominance has been eroded by the need to employ model‐dependent methods to deal with missing data and to satisfy analysts' demands for survey estimates that cannot be met with design‐based methods. With the continuous decline in response rates that has occurred in recent years, much current research has focused on the use of non‐probability samples and data collected from administrative records and web surveys.     

Non‐competes,business dynamism,and concentration: Evidence from a Florida case study

Most research on non‐competes has focused on employees; here we study how non‐competes affect firm location choice, growth, and consequent regional concentration, using Florida's 1996 legislative change that eased restrictions on their enforcement. Difference‐in‐differences models show that following the change, establishments of large firms were more likely to enter Florida; they also created a greater proportion of jobs and increased their share of employment in the state. Entrepreneurs or establishments of small firms, in contrast, were less likely to enter Florida following the law change; they also created a smaller proportion of new jobs and decreased their share of employment. Consistent with these location and job creation dynamics, regional business concentration increased following the law change in Florida. Nationwide cross‐sections demonstrate consistent correlations between state‐level non‐compete enforcement and the location, employment, and concentration dynamics illustrated in Florida.     

存款利率市场化下商业银行经营结构与存款利率的关系研究

中国存款利率市场化开启时期正是银行经营快速转型阶段，研究银行经营结构对存款利率的影响具有重要现实意义。基于2011—2017年中国105家银行数据，本文验证了银行经营结构与存款利率之间的关系。研究表明：（1）两类非利息收入影响存款利率的方向不同。手续费及佣金收入降低了存款利率，而其他经营收入提高了存款利率。（2）存款负债占比越高，存款利率越高，且这一作用在城商行和农商行中更明显。（3）非利息收入和存款负债存在交互作用。手续费及佣金收入、存款负债减弱了彼此调节存款利率的作用，其他经营收入、存款负债增强了彼此调节存款利率的作用。（4）影子银行规模越大、存款利率越高，但这一作用随着手续费及佣金收入的扩大而减弱。随着利率“双轨制”的逐步取消与金融业的进一步开放，银行需尽快完善存款定价机制，防范利率风险。      

Risk Related Non Linearities in Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Panel of Central and Eastern European Countries

This paper investigates the recent evolution of five Eastern European exchange rates. Our aim is twofold: to provide an up-to-date view of the predictability and main relations of spot rates with economic fundamentals and to derive some considerations about exchange rate regimes, capital flows, and risk appetite. We propose a non-linear specification where the non-linearity refers to the effect of the interest rate differential. The paper supports the view that given the relevance of capital flows and their sensitivity to risk adjusted yield differentials, the choice of exchange rate regime should be a matter of careful strategy.     

China's Abolition of the Agricultural Tax,Local Governments’ Responses and Economic Growth

When evaluating agricultural policy changes, much of the attention in the literature has been limited to agricultural productivity growth. This study demonstrates that, under a regionally decentralised authority system, the effect of China's abolition of the agricultural tax (AAT) in 2004–05 extended beyond the realm of agriculture. We find that, following the AAT reform, Chinese counties with higher reliance on agricultural taxation for budgetary revenue prior to the AAT reform experienced higher agricultural economic growth, as expected, but lower non‐agricultural economic growth in the short run. This growth‐inhibiting effect of the AAT reform on non‐agricultural production in the short run can be explained, to some extent, by the increased non‐agricultural taxation due to the insufficient funds that Chinese county governments received from the upper‐level governments following the AAT reform; the magnitude of this tax increase was associated with the degree to which each county relied on agricultural taxation for budgetary revenue prior to the reform. In addition, our results show that the AAT reform resulted in a high level of regional inequality in terms of non‐agricultural GDP per capita. In summary, our study shows that although the AAT reform succeeded in promoting agricultural production, such accomplishments were achieved at the cost of lower non‐agricultural output growth and higher regional inequality of non‐agricultural GDP per capita at the county level.     

Financial distress and non‐executive director compensation: Evidence from state‐owned enterprises in South Africa post King III

Using a sample of South African state‐owned enterprises (SOEs), we examine the pre‐ and post‐period impact of King III on non‐executive director (NED) compensation with emphasis on financially distressed SOEs. This paper adopts a difference‐in‐differences analysis technique with repeated measures as the basis for testing the hypotheses. The revised Altman Z‐score model which incorporates features unique to emerging markets is used to measure financial distress. Our findings indicate that SOEs that adopted King III will increase NED compensation when the firm has a positive performance and will severely penalize NED when the firm faces financial distress. This study highlights the importance of well‐crafted corporate governance policies. It further sheds light on the importance of King III and how its implementation may prove vital for the success of an enterprise.