GDP nowcasting: application and constraints in a small open developing economy

Despite data limitations, an attempt is made to find out if a GDP nowcasting model can provide reliable forecasts for a small open economy. Two competing Bayesian vector autoregressive models are tested rigorously to obtain the optimal model by minimizing in-sample forecasting errors. The main finding of this study is that GDP nowcasting can produce reliable results for a small open economy despite the unavailability of sufficient data sets and the lack of high frequency indicators.     

一种改进的CPFSK信号频率估计方法

针对突发信号解调中多普勒频偏大的问题，提出了一种改进的连续相位移频键控信号(CPFSK)频率估计方法。首先接收信号平方运算使信号的调制指数加倍，再通过一次离散傅里叶变换(DFT)，用搜索信号平方谱谱峰的方法实现突发信号频率估计。仿真实验表明，在低信噪比条件下，该算法的频率估计精度比经典的相位差频率估计算法提高了20%；该算法与广泛用于高动态突发信号的频率插值估计算法相比，同道干扰信道下信干比改善可达4 dB，DFT长度缩短约1/3。     

DEFINING RELEVANT MARKETS FOR PHARMACEUTICALS

To identify the relevant product markets for Swedish pharmaceuticals, a spatial econometrics approach is employed. First, we calculate Moran's Is for different market definitions and then we use a spatial Durbin model to determine the effect of price changes on quantity sold of own and competing products. As expected, the results show that competition is strongest between close substitutes; however, the relevant product markets for Swedish pharmaceuticals extend beyond close substitutes down to products included in the same class on the four‐digit level of the Anatomic Therapeutic Chemical system as defined by the World Health Organization. The spatial regression model further indicates that increases in the price of a product significantly lower quantity sold of that product and in the same time increase the quantity sold of competing products. For close substitutes (products belonging to the same class on the seven‐digit level of the Anatomic Therapeutic Chemical system), as well as for products that, without being close substitutes, belong to the same therapeutic/pharmacological/chemical subgroup (the same class on the five‐digit level of the Anatomic Therapeutic Chemical system), increased competition is also visible after 1 July 2009 when the latest policy changes with regards to pharmaceuticals have been implemented in Sweden.     

Currency substitution,risk premia and the Taylor principle

This paper studies the equilibrium determinacy properties of a simple interest rate rule in a small open economy subject to currency substitution (i.e., the use of a foreign currency for domestic transactions) and risk premia on foreign borrowing. It shows that if currencies are substitute in the provision of liquidity services the rule׳s response to inflation has to be sufficiently above unity for the equilibrium to be locally determinate. This reinforced Taylor principle requirement appears to be more binding in economies characterized by a larger elasticity of currency substitution, more debt-elastic country risk premia, and intermediate degrees of dollarization in transactions.     

Labor Market Effects of Spatial Licensing Requirements: Evidence from CPA Mobility

We exploit the staggered introduction of CPA Mobility provisions in the United States to study the effects of spatial licensing requirements on the labor market for accounting professionals. Specifically, we examine whether the removal of licensing‐induced geographic barriers affects CPA wages and employment levels, as well as the pricing and quality of professional services. We find that, subsequent to the adoption of CPA Mobility provisions, wages of accounting professionals decrease, whereas employment levels are unaffected. The documented wage effect stems from smaller CPA firms, is more pronounced for CPAs holding senior positions, and persists over time. We also find that service prices decline and that this effect is concentrated in local CPA firms. Moreover, we document that the increased wage and price pressure is not associated with deteriorating service quality. Collectively, our results suggest that the removal of occupational licensing barriers has sizable effects on labor supply and service prices. Our findings inform the current regulatory debate on occupational licensing.     

我国银行理财业务发展趋势研究

对国内商业银行理财业务的发展状况进行了简要概述， 进而对理财业务开展过程中的一些问题进行了分析， 强调指出市场化应该成为银行理财业务转型升级和创新发展的方向， 并提出了实现市场化发展方向的若干具体措施。     

There is no smoke without a fire: The effect of government interventions in less advanced economies

The lack of liquidity in the interbank market during the crisis of 2007–2011 led governments to impose different policies to rescue their countries’ banking sectors. While in advanced countries interventions in the banking sector were mostly related to a lack of liquidity and significant asymmetric information regarding counterparty risk, in many less advanced countries they had a precautionary motive. In our article, we investigate the effectiveness of policy interventions on healthy banking markets, with possible negative spill-over effects from other countries. To this extent, we use an event study methodology to test the effect of liquidity and financial sector policy announcements on interbank spread changes in six Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries over the period between 2007 and 2011. We find that standard liquidity interventions did not provide effective stabilization. In fact, our evidence suggests that the spread widened after their announcement, probably as a result of the negative signal and consequently increased risk aversion of banks. In such situations, regulators should consider policy instruments that aim to decrease uncertainty in the market.     

The use of landslide hazard maps to determine mitigation priorities in a dam reservoir and its protection area

Despite longstanding research on the landslide hazard assessment and mapping, the use this information in regional planning applications remains largely unclear. There is still a need for novel methods to interpret the results of hazard analyses. In this respect, the main research question of this study is how the landslide hazard maps can be evaluated in planning practice. To evaluate this issue, a comprehensive case study was carried out and a new methodology, defining the order of priority for the locations where mitigation measures are applied was developed. The investigations were carried out in the Melen Dam reservoir, which provides potable water to the city of Istanbul, and the dam protection area (Duzce, Turkey) in four main stages: (i) Evaluation of the general characteristics of the study area, (ii) preparation of landslide inventory, (iii) development of landslide hazard model, and (iv) implementation of the results of hazard analyses in planning. As a consequence, a decision support system that can evaluate analytically complicated outputs “P_Combined”, “P_{AL min.}”, and “L_Total” and provide clear decisions “Urgent”, “Primary”, and “Secondary” was suggested. Considering the limited resources available for the mitigation measures, the determination of mitigation priorities for the micro-catchments constitutes the key land-use policy for the protection of the dam reservoir.     

When Auditors Say ‘No,’ Does the Market Listen?

Previous research on whether the market responds to auditors’ opinions has provided mixed results. We revisit this issue in China, where individual investors who are more likely to neglect value-relevant information dominate the stock market. In addition to going concern opinions (GCOs), China permits modified audit opinions (MAOs) on violations of accounting standards or disclosure rules (GAAP/DISC MAOs), providing an opportunity not available in the literature to enrich the study of audit-opinion pricing. We find that, ceteris paribus, MAO recipients underperform in the future and have a higher incidence of adverse outcomes such as misreporting and stock delisting, and the market reacts negatively to MAOs during the short window around MAO disclosure. Importantly, MAO disclosure is not followed by negative long-term stock returns, suggesting stock price adjustments to MAOs are speedy and unbiased. These findings hold for both GCOs and GAAP/DISC MAOs. Together, our findings support the informativeness of audit opinions and cast doubt on the argument that investors inefficiently price audit opinions due to information-processing bias.     

Market drivers of sustainability and sustainability learning capabilities: The moderating role of sustainability control systems

This study examines (i) the impact of market drivers of sustainability on the adoption of sustainability learning capabilities and (ii) the moderating role of sustainability control systems (SCS) on the relationship between market drivers of sustainability and sustainability learning capabilities. Drawing on the levers of control framework, stakeholder theory and organisational learning literature, survey data were collected from 175 large scale local and multinational companies operating in Sri Lanka. Findings reveal that market drivers of sustainability have a significant positive impact on sustainability learning capabilities. Whereas the interactive use of SCS shows a positive moderating impact, the diagnostic use of SCS shows a negative impact. The study enhances our understanding of (i) the influence of market drivers of sustainability on the adoption of sustainability learning capabilities and (ii) the use of SCS in enabling sustainability learning capabilities. The study reveals novel insights for managers responding to changing market drivers of sustainability, on how to (re)align different uses of SCS to enable sustainability learning capabilities.