Impact of unexpected events on inbound tourism demand modeling: evidence of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome outbreak in South Korea

This paper attempts to evaluate how South Korea’s inbound tourist arrivals from China have been affected by the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) outbreak. Using quarterly data, the autoregressive distributed lag model (ADLM) is performed to capture the influence of the MERS outbreak. Estimation results of the general ADLM reveal that the MERS outbreak has a significant adverse impact on the total inbound tourist arrivals from China, as well as on tour arrivals; however, for business, official, and other types of tourist arrivals, its influence is insignificant. Furthermore, the error correction model is estimated to demonstrate the long-run equilibrium and short-run dynamics among the underlying variables. Our analysis not only provides empirical evidence on evaluating the impact of the MERS outbreak on different types of tourism demand, but also identifies main determinants and suggests appropriate model specifications for each type of tourist arrivals.     

从新冠肺炎疫情看专业数据库在现代化经济体系中的作用

信息技术的应用使数据信息在经济体系中的作用日益重要,经济体系的功能聚焦已经由实体市场平台型经济为主导转向数据端支撑型经济为主导,打造现代化经济体系是中国经济社会发展的内生要求。研究表明,专业数据库是完成供给侧结构性改革的关键、经济主体制定经济决策的重要依据、建立高质量发展水平评价体系的基石及产业提质增效和转型升级的指示器,专业数据库起中枢作用的经济体系是真正意义上的现代化经济体系。新冠肺炎疫情的突然爆发暴露出我国现有经济体系中存在产业应急生产能力弱、产业体系不完善、产业链抵御风险能力不强、合理仓储制度缺失、社会服务体系应急水平较低、区域间存在“数字鸿沟”等短板,根源是服务于经济体系的专业数据库不健全使疫情时期我国的经济发展受到巨大影响和损失。要切实建成现代化经济体系,就必须强化专业数据库建设,弥补专业人才短板,科学建设专业数据库,加大各产业的专业数据库建设力度,灵活衔接各领域的专业数据库,加速数字产业化进程,完善劳动力信息数据库,缩小区域间的“数字鸿沟”。以现代化技术规避风险,在常规时期和非常时期均能有序平稳运行,是现代化经济体系与传统经济体系的重要差别,是宏观经济真正的高质量发展。     

新冠肺炎疫情对我国医药行业股价影响——基于ARIMA模型的实证分析

本研究选取新冠疫情发生前后四个月,即2019年9月2日至2020年4月30日上证医药收盘价,将其162个数据作为样本,运用ARIMA模型进行回溯预测。通过分析预测值与真实值的差值。得出疫情对我国医药行业股价有着正向冲击作用。随着全球疫情恶化使得正向冲击同时加剧,虽然国内新冠疫情态势已得到基本控制,但在全球大环境下其对我国医药行业股价的影响短时间内不会消退。     

后疫情时代下新冠肺炎疫情对中国服务经济影响 ——基于多期双重差分模型的研究

本文使用中国31个省、直辖市和自治区2019年6月~2020年9月共16个月的月度面板数据,采用多期双重差分(DID)方法,分别就新冠肺炎疫情对服务业中的快递行业、金融行业、公路货运行业和进出口行业的影响展开分析,研究结果表明:疫情对快递行业和金融行业的影响有显著正向影响,对进出口企业和公路货运行业有显著负向影响。进一步,采用三重差分模型进行地区异质性与禀赋异质性检验后发现,疫情对东部地区的快递业影响不显著,对中西部地区的快递行业收入有显著正向影响;疫情对东部沿海地区的进出口总额有显著负向影响,对中西部进出口总额影响不显著;疫情对东部、中西部金融存贷款的影响均显著为正;疫情对东部地区公路货运量的影响显著为负,对中西部的影响显著为正。疫情与2019年卫生人员三重差分模型显示,对快递行业收入的影响显著为负;对公路货运量和进出口影响不显著;对金融存贷款影响显著为正。疫情与2019年人口资源禀赋三重差分模型显示,对快递行业收入、进出口总额和金融存贷款影响显著为正;对公路货运量影响不显著。     

Market volatility and illiquidity during the COVID-19 outbreak: Evidence from the Saudi stock exchange through the wavelet coherence approaches

The aim of this paper is to examine the explanatory power of realized volatility on the illiquidity in Saudi stock market during the COVID-19 outbreak. To achieve this objective, we consider the Wavelet Coherence approaches as empirical tools to investigate the combined effect of realized volatility and COVID-19 counts on the market illiquidity across frequencies and over time space by taking in account the number of infected cases in Saudi Arabia and over the World, and the number of death cases in Saudi Arabia as well as over the World. Our study reaches two main findings. First, the preliminary results reported by the ARDL bound test as a benchmark model showed significant long-run and short-run effects of the market volatility on illiquidity in contemporaneous and lagged manner. Second, the wavelet coherence analysis tools exhibited important results: (i) the wavelet coherency between illiquidity ratio and realized volatility in Saudi Arabia appear highly pronounced over all time horizons. (ii) PWC plots showed a significant mutual effect between liquidity risk and realized volatility when eliminating the effect of local COVID-19 cases. (iii) MWC plots highlighted that the response of the market illiquidity index to both the amplification in confirmed local cases (resp. international confirmed cases) and the stock market volatility appear significant in the short and middle horizons.     

Return connectedness across asset classes around the COVID-19 outbreak

In this paper, we show evidence of a dramatic change in the structure and time-varying patterns of return connectedness across various assets (gold, crude oil, world equities, currencies, and bonds) around the COVID-19 outbreak. Using the TVP-VAR connectedness approach, the results show that the dynamic total connectedness across the five assets was moderate and quite stable until early 2020. After that, the total connectedness spikes and the structure of the network of connectedness alters, which concurs with the COVID-19 outbreak. The equity and USD indices are the primary transmitters of shocks before the outbreak, whereas the bond index becomes the main transmitters of shocks during the COVID-19 outbreak. However, the USD index is a net receiver of shocks to other assets during the outbreak period. Furthermore, using a recently developed newspaper-based index of uncertainty in financial markets due to infectious diseases to capture the recent impact of COVID-19, we find that connectedness is positively related to this index, and increases at higher levels (conditional quantiles) of connectedness. Overall, our results reflect the speedy disturbing effects of the COVID-19 outbreak, which matters to the formulations of policies seeking to achieve financial stability. The results also indicate a possibility to threaten investors’ portfolios and fade the benefits of diversification.     

Why do parents who usually vaccinate their children hesitate or refuse? General good vs. individual risk

This study examines vaccination hesitancy or refusal following the 2013 polio outbreak in Israel, based on two theoretical models. The first is Sandman’s theoretical model, which holds that risk perception is comprised of hazard plus outrage. The second model is the affect heuristic that explains the risk/benefit confounding. It aims to expose the barriers that inhibited parental compliance with OPV vaccination for their children. The study employed mixed methods – a questionnaire survey (n = 197) and content analysis of parents’ discussions in blogs, Internet sites, and Facebook pages (n = 2499). The findings indicate that some parents who normally give their children routine vaccinations decided not to give them OPV due to lack of faith in the health system, concerns about vaccine safety and reasons specific to the polio outbreak in Israel. Some vaccinated due to a misunderstanding, namely, they believed that OPV was supposed to protect their children, when it was actually for overall societal well-being. This study highlights the difficulty of framing the subject of vaccinations as a preventive measure, especially when the prevention is for society at large and not to protect the children themselves. The findings of this study are important because they provide a glimpse into a situation that can recur in different places in the world where a disease considered to have been ‘eradicated’ returns, and the public is required to take measures which protect the public but which might put individuals at risk. The conclusions from the analysis of the findings of this study are that the public’s risk perception is based on a context-dependent analysis, which the communicating body must understand and respect.     

中国特色社会主义制度优势和国家治理任务——由抗击“新冠肺炎”重大疫情引起的思考与建言

本文在梳理关于“新冠肺炎”疫情发生和蔓延的若干观点的基础上,阐述抗击“新冠肺炎”疫情彰显的我国制度优势：一是党对抗击疫情的统一领导显示中国特色社会主义制度的政治优势,二是公立医院再现“以人民为中心”“全心全意为人民服务”的底色,三是国有企业发挥“国之脊梁、民族希望”的重大作用,四是“两山”医院展现“社会主义集中力量办大事”的制度优势,五是“封城封省”发扬中华民族“牺牲小我保全大我”的气节。以此次疫情为鉴,未来在国家治理方面应高度重视以下几方面任务：一是重视生物安全,保卫中华民族健康发展;二是加强食品安全法治建设,严厉打击捕食野生动物违法行为;三是增强地方政府快速应急能力,完善高效勤政的防控突发公共卫生事件国家治理体制;四是理直气壮做强做优做大国有企业,充分发挥国有经济的主导作用;五是继续保持医疗卫生系统“姓公姓社”的本色,强化社会主义性质的公共医疗卫生事业。     

突发大规模疫情对经济发展的影响——基于公众关注和媒体关注的视角

本文基于疫情风险影响经济增长的理论模型,发现消费、投资的变化不但取决于疫情对全要素生产率、资本存量等供给因素的影响,也受到需求因素的影响。然后基于公众关注和媒体关注的视角,采用网络搜索量进行量化,运用NARDL模型研究大规模疫情冲击对经济的长短期非对称传导效应。实证结果表明:短期内,公众和媒体对疫情的关注增加对经济发展的负向冲击明显更强;长期内,公众关注和媒体关注对经济发展负向影响较为有限,经济较快恢复稳态增长水平;公众和媒体对疫情关注的增加和减少对不同经济类型企业和不同行业的影响有所不同。基于此,本文建议以财政政策为主,以结构性货币政策为辅,保证信息公开及时,采用结构性和差异化策略精准滴灌支持中小企业复工复产,避免资金链、产业链和供应链断裂,确保经济企稳恢复。     

Importance of blanket testing in promoting US beef for Japanese consumers

We carried out and analysed a questionnaire survey on consumer attitudes to verify the effectiveness of blanket testing of US beef in Japan. Applying an ordered probit model to the data yielded the following findings: blanket testing dramatically increases purchase probabilities, so it is one of the most important tools for reviving Japanese consumers’ meat demand. The effect of blanket testing is especially large in the region where the consumers traditionally ate more beef (the Kansai area). Purchase probability is lower in households with awareness of country‐of‐origin of beef before the BSE crisis than households without it. Purchase probability of the households that had eaten US beef before the BSE outbreak is higher than those that had not. Purchase probability is not affected by family structure.