Carbon Trading with Imperfectly Observable Emissions

The Kyoto Protocol foresees emission trading but does not yet specify verification of (uncertain) emissions. This paper analyses a setting in which parties can meet their emission targets by reducing emissions, by investing in monitoring (reducing uncertainty of emissions) or by (bilaterally) trading permits. We derive the optimality conditions and carry out various numerical simulations. Our applications suggest that including uncertainty could increase compliance costs for the USA, Japan and the European Union. Central Europe and the Former Soviet Union might be able to gain from trading due to higher permit prices. Emissions trading could also lower aggregate uncertainty on emissions.     

铬掺杂对硅酸铁锂电学性能影响的计算机仿真研究

硅酸铁锂是一种锂离子电子的正极材料,由于其晶胞在理论上可允许可逆脱嵌两个锂原子,使得其理论比容量有巨大的提升空间,加上原料易得、无污染及成本低的优势,受到了人们的重视。正极材料掺杂被认为是改善其导电性能的有效途径。论文通过运用基于第一性原理方法的计算机仿真技术,对铬掺杂硅酸铁锂的结构和导电性能的影响进行了计算机仿真研究,结果表明未掺杂的硅酸铁锂其带隙快读为2.44eV,掺杂铬之后硅酸铁锂带隙减小为2.31eV,表明铬掺杂可提高硅酸铁锂的导电性能。     

Bayesian forecasting of UEFA Champions League under alternative seeding regimes

The evaluation of seeding rules requires the use of probabilistic forecasting models both for individual matches and for the tournament. Prior papers have employed a match-level forecasting model and then used a Monte Carlo simulation of the tournament for estimating outcome probabilities, thus allowing an outcome uncertainty measure to be attached to each proposed seeding regime, for example. However, this approach does not take into account the uncertainty that may surround parameter estimates in the underlying match-level forecasting model. We propose a Bayesian approach for addressing this problem, and illustrate it by simulating the UEFA Champions League under alternative seeding regimes. We find that changes in 2015 tended to increase the uncertainty over progression to the knock-out stage, but made limited difference to which clubs would contest the final.     

中国钢铁长期需求:影响因素与政策选择

近年来,我国钢铁工业得到了长足的发展。但随着国内外市场供求关系变化,钢铁工业供求结构不相适应的矛盾日益显现。钢铁工业要实现可持续发展,必须重视对市场长期需求规律的研究,将数量增长和产品结构调整相结合。本文利用协整方程对市场经济条件下经济增长等因素对我国钢铁工业推动作用进行动态分析,探讨钢铁市场的长期需求规律,对于当前钢铁产业政策发展导向、政策选择等提出建议。     

When and why do countries break their national fiscal rules?

This paper identifies determinants of compliance with various types of national numerical fiscal rules. Based on 51 fiscal rules in force in EU member states from 1995 to 2015, the analysis identifies determinants among specific rule characteristics and their fiscal frameworks, as well as their political, (socio-)economic and supranational environments. While the average compliance across all rules and countries is around 50%, compliance with rules constraining stock (rather than flow) variables, set out in coalitional agreements, as well as rules covering larger parts of general government finances is significantly higher. Furthermore, independent monitoring and enforcement bodies (issuing real-time alerts) turn out to be significantly associated with a higher probability of compliance. Several theories of the deficit bias of governments due to government fragmentation, decentralization and political budget cycles are also significant with regards to compliance with fiscal rules. However, neither the economic environment or business cycle, nor forecast errors (except for an unexpectedly higher primary balance) on average seem to play a significant role.     

风力发电机接入直流微电网的运行控制研究

本文针对目前现行风力发电机系统接入微网效率低和不易控制的问题,提出建立改进型的风力发电模型,这个系统主要包括:风力机、永磁同步发电机、三相整流桥、DC-DC变换器以及蓄电池。利用PSIM仿真软件进行等效仿真验证。仿真结果表明风力发电机通过整流变换后能很好的能接入直流微电网,为用户提供高质量的电能。     

浅谈税法课程改革的必要性以及存在的问题

针对目前税法课程教学效果不佳的现象,进行了税法教学改革尝试。通过对教学改革实践的分析与总结,归纳税法教学改革元素,建立基于项目导向、任务驱动的税法教学改革模型。我们基于办税员岗位,注重实践操作,并对其在教学实践中的运用效果进行评价。通过教学改革,激发学生学习税法的兴趣,应学生所求,教学生所需,利用多种资源,为学生创造良好的税法学习条件和环境,实现教与学的良性互动。     

基于INTEGRATION的城市交通中观仿真建模及实例分析

提出了基于INTEGRATION的城市交通中观仿真建模方法。选取中观仿真模型INTEGRATION为研究对象,提出了INTEGRATION应用于城市交通管理的技术路线;并利用INTEGRATION搭建了奥林匹克公园周边路网交通仿真平台,分析了奥运会高峰日期间实施交通需求控制和铺设专用道策略之后,专用道的运行效率和对周边路网的影响,验证了INTEGRATION在开展城市交通管理方面的应用效果。     

利用PLC仿真软件组织PLC课程实践环节的教学

高职院校的机床电气控制与PLC课程设计,需要大量的实验设备。由于经费紧张,大多数高职院校的实验设备很难满足需要。因此,采用PLC仿真软件与计算机相结合的方法,解决课程设计中程序调试的难题,能收到较好的效果。     

Pooling data for the analysis of dynamic marketing systems

Vector autoregressive (VAR) models have become popular in marketing literature for analyzing the behavior of competitive marketing systems. One drawback of these models is that the number of parameters can become very large, potentially leading to estimation problems. Pooling data for multiple cross-sectional units (stores) can partly alleviate these problems. An important issue in such models is how heterogeneity among cross-sectional units is accounted for. We investigate the performance of several pooling approaches that accommodate different levels of cross-sectional heterogeneity in a simulation study and in an empirical application. Our results show that the random coefficients modeling approach is an overall good choice when the estimated VAR model is used for out-of-sample forecasting only. When the estimated model is used to compute Impulse Response Functions, we conclude that one should select a modeling approach that matches the level of heterogeneity in the data.