我国货币政策汇率传导机制有效性的实证研究

本文应用当代主流的计量经济学的研究方法,通过对2002年以来相关的经济金融月度数据的实证分析,探究了我国货币政策传导渠道之汇率传导渠道的运作机制以及传导效果。写作本文的目的不仅在于对汇率传导渠道的有效性得出一个基本判断,而且想借此判断在深入分析的基础上,不断完善我国货币政策传导的微观金融环境,期望进一步推动我国的金融市场建设和金融体制改革。     

Accommodating spatial correlation across choice alternatives in discrete choice models: an application to modeling residential location choice behavior

This paper presents a modeling methodology capable of accounting for spatial correlation across choice alternatives in discrete choice modeling applications. Many location choice (e.g., residential location, workplace location, destination location) modeling contexts involve choice sets where alternatives are spatially correlated with one another due to unobserved factors. In the presence of such spatial correlation, traditional discrete choice modeling methods that are often based on the assumption of independence among choice alternatives are not appropriate. In this paper, a Generalized Spatially Correlated Logit (GSCL) model that allows one to represent the degree of spatial correlation as a function of a multi-dimensional vector of attributes characterizing each pair of location choice alternatives is formulated and presented. The formulation of the GSCL model allows one to accommodate alternative correlation mechanisms rather than pre-imposing restrictive correlation assumptions on the location choice alternatives. The model is applied to the analysis of residential location choice behavior using a sample of households drawn from the 2000 San Francisco Bay Area Travel Survey (BATS) data set. Model estimation results obtained from the GSCL are compared against those obtained using the standard multinomial logit (MNL) model and the spatially correlated logit (SCL) model where only correlations across neighboring (or adjacent) alternatives are accommodated. Model findings suggest that there is significant spatial correlation across alternatives that do not share a common boundary, and that the GSCL offers the ability to more accurately capture spatial location choice behavior.     

Analyzing air cargo flows of international routes: an empirical study of Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport

Air cargo demand is an important aspect of the operation and planning of private and public agencies responsible for airports. While most existing studies in this field include only geo-economic characteristics of airports and their hinterlands as explanatory variables, this study develops a gravity model of air cargo flows by trying to incorporate more factors that might influence international air cargo flows of an airport. The model is developed based on the panel data of air cargo services on scheduled routes at Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport during the years 2004-2007. The results indicate that population, air freight rate and three dummy variables, including the regional economic bloc of the “Chinese Circle”(an informal partnership between Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and mainland China), the Open Sky Agreements and long established colonial links, are key determinants of international air cargo flows from/to Taiwan. These results suggest a wider array of factors needs to be considered in policy.     

铁路多元经营产业转型发展初探

从铁路多元经营的产业特点出发,分析铁路多元经营产业转型发展的必要性和紧迫性,提出铁路多元产业转型发展的方向：体制机制向适应市场经济要求转型;产业组织向专业化、一体化、规模化转型;企业管理向集约化、精细化转型;经营方式向市场化转型;产品服务向多样化、高端化转型。     

ICE产业的崛起及其对美国经济的影响——虚拟经济与实体经济的“去脱节化”探索之二

本文讨论ICE产业在美国的发展的趋势与前景;揭示ICE产业的经济属性与模式特征;进而分析ICE产业对美国经济增长、产业结构、劳动生产率以及就业结构的影响.论文还探讨了ICE产业在“虚拟经济与实体经济的去脱节化”进程中的作用,并透视ICE产业在美国“再产业化”乃至整个世界重建进程中的划时代意义.     

河北省县域农业旅游发展研究

农业旅游是县域经济的重要组成部分。河北省发展县域农业旅游取得了一定的成果,但也存在诸多问题。为了解决这些弊端,获得更大的经济效益,河北省各县域应充分利用现有农业资源,谨慎处理多种关系,采用适宜的开发模式,进行科学合理的规划。     

日本企业管理模式及其进化路径

日本产品长期以优质而廉价等特征,在世界市场赢得竞争优势.迄今为止,这种优势仍然显著.究其原因,其背后的日本式管理模式发挥了重要作用.然而,人们对于日本模式的认知,却还普遍停留在"终身雇佣、年功序列和企业内工会"等所谓"三大神器"论的表象特征,对其内在复杂构成、系统化特征及其进化路径等,缺乏深入理解,而这些因素恰恰对正在形成中的中国模式具有重要借鉴意义.     

基于知识型员工特征的激励模型构建

知识的创造、利用、增值及资源的合理配置,最终都要靠知识的载体——知识型员工来实现。本文在系统分析知识型员工特征的基础上,构建了相应的激励模型,以期对企业知识型员工的人本管理工作起到一定的指导作用。     

土地生命周期管理模式研究

本文根据地政管理的特点,着重介绍了土地生命周期管理的内容,并从业务模型和数据模型方面其管理模式的建立进行了探讨,给出了基于土地生命周期管理模式的系统建设构想.     

金融危机以来我国沿海港口货物吞吐量影响因素研究——兼论我国经济由外需拉动向内需驱动转型的一个证据

通过建立基于贸易引力模型的我国沿海港口货物吞吐量影响因素的VAR模型,分别考察了交通运输业固定投资、人民币汇率、世界经济状况和国内经济状况对我国沿海港口货物吞吐量的影响,并以金融危机以来的数据作为样本对该模型进行了实证检验。由脉冲响应和方差分解分析发现:世界经济发展状况对我国沿海港口货物吞吐量的影响最大,且世界经济的复苏将显著提高沿海港口货物吞吐量;交通运输业固定投资在经过一个滞后期后,也会对沿海港口货物吞吐量起到积极的作用;人民币汇率对我国沿海港口货物吞吐量的影响不可忽略,且汇率上升(即本币贬值)将提高沿海港口货物吞吐量;而国内经济发展状况则与我国沿海港口货物吞吐量之间并不存在显著的确定关系,这或表明我国经济的发展方式正由外需拉动向内需驱动转型。