Optimal Social Insurance with Endogenous Health*

In this paper, I analyze optimal insurance against unemployment and disability in a private information economy with endogenous health and search effort. Individuals can reduce the probability of becoming disabled by exerting prevention effort. I show that the optimal sequence of consumption is increasing for a working individual and constant for a disabled individual. During unemployment, decreasing benefits are not necessarily optimal. The prevention constraint implies increasing benefits while the search constraint demands decreasing benefits while being unemployed. However, if individuals respond sufficiently to search incentives, the latter effect dominates the former and the optimal consumption sequence is decreasing during unemployment.     

商业银行最优资本结构选择的模型与实证分析

近年来商业银行资本结构的选择问题是理论界研究的热点.本文在Barrios-Blanco模型基础上,进一步研究了考虑无存款保险制度、经济政策的不确定性以及利率期限结构等的最优资本结构选择模型,从理论上分析了中国商业银行资本结构选择的主要影响因素,并利用实际数据进行了实证检验,实证结果表明前期资本、存款的流动性溢价等因素对商业银行的资本结构选择影响最大,当期资产、银行净利润波动性、经济政策的不确定等因素影响较小.     

OECD国家企业年金基金监管模式及其对我国的启示

企业年金的发展已经有了100多年的历史,已成为社会保障体系的一个重要组成部分。本文从总结OECD国家的监管经验,对审慎性模式和定量限制模式进行比较出发,分析我国企业年金监管的内在动因,结合我国的具体国情,确定我国应当采用何种监管模式,保证企业年金的安全性和收益性。     

Numerical and analytical results for the transportation problem of Monge-Kantorovich

The Monge-Kantorovich transportation problem has a long and interesting history and has found a great variety of applications (see Rachev and Rüschendorf (1998a,b)). Some interesting characterizations of optimal solutions to the transportation problem (resp. coupling problems) have been found recently. For the squared distance and discrete distributions they relate optimal solutions to generalized Voronoi diagrams. Numerically we investigate the dependence of optimal couplings on variations of the coupling function. Numerical results confirm also a conjecture on optimal couplings in the one-dimensional case for nonconvex coupling functions. A proof of this conjecture is given under some technical conditions. Received: November 1999     

An improved empirical Bayes test for positive exponential families

We exhibit an empirical Bayes test δ^* _n for a decision problem using a linear error loss in a class of positive exponential families. This empirical Bayes test δ^* _n possesses the asymptotic optimality, and its associated regret converges to zero with rate n ⁻¹(ln n )⁶ This rate of convergence improves the previous results in the literature in the sense that a faster rate of convergence is achieved under much weaker conditions. Examples are presented to illustrate the performance of the empirical Bayes test δ^* _n     

The determinants of the volatility of returns on cross-border asset holdings

Using both panel and cross-sectional models for 28 industrialized countries observed from 2001–2009, we report a number of findings regarding the determinants of the volatility of returns on cross-border asset holdings (i.e., equity and debt). Greater portfolio concentration and an increase in assets held in emerging markets lead to an elevation in earning volatility, whereas more financial integration and a greater share held in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries and by the household sector cause a reduction in the return volatility. Larger asset holdings by offshore financial corporations and non-bank financial institutions cause higher market volatility, although they affect volatility in the equity and bond markets in the opposite way. Overall, both panel and cross-sectional estimations provide very similar results (albeit of different magnitude) and are robust to the endogeneity problem.     

基于三角模糊数的贷款组合优化模型比较分析

随着中国利率市场化的进程,贷款利率呈现出更大的不确定性,商业银行间的竞争也越来越激烈,在新的行业特点和经营形势下,商业银行需要结合研究贷款资源的配置方式,为商业银行管理层的决策提供有力的支撑。引入三角模糊数来刻画商业银行的收益率,并利用其可能性均值来构建三类贷款组合优化模型进行分析,结果显示模型的有效边界都符合均值方差模型有效边界的变化趋势,且得到的贷款权重配置可以更好地体现贷款利用效率。     

成本分担博弈与维克里拍卖机制研究

成本分担博弈中的平均分担机制往往导致参与人低报自己的收益率,从而导致博弈结果的无效率。笔者通过在成本分担博弈中引入维克里机制,利用参与人的占优策略——说真话,使成本分担博弈的结果实现了帕累托最优配置。     

Claims,Concerns and Interests In British Credit Union Development

The British credit union movement has grown rapidly over the past decade, albeit from a low base relative to other nations. That growth has been led by a natlonal credlt union pollcy network. Thls article provides a detailed appraisal of the structure of that network, the motivations of its members and the relations between them.

This study highlights the existence of contradictions in the ‘policy space’ occupied by this network that have obscured the public interest In credit union development to date. These contradictions need to be resolved if the performance of the system as a whole is to be improved and public policy goals are to be met Increasing visibtlity ensuing from repeated endorsement of credit unions by the Labour government is bringing added pressures to bear on that network. New actors may be expected to enter the credit union polltlcal market as a result The irnpacts of entry, both positive and negative, are evaluated in terms of the coheslon and effectiveness of ihe credit union policy network.     

Tail dependence risk exposure and diversification potential of Islamic and conventional banks

This paper undertakes a rolling window comparative analysis of risks for portfolios consisting of GCC Islamic and conventional bank indices. We draw our empirical results by employing canonical, drawable and regular vine copula models, as well as by implementing a portfolio optimization method with a conditional Value-at-Risk constraint. We find evidence of higher riskiness in the group of Islamic banks relative to the group of conventional banks across each of the financial rolling window scenarios under consideration. Specifically, a greater negative (nonlinear) tail asymmetric dependence is observed in the pairs of Islamic banks’ relationships. The results also show that the optimal portfolio model supports a clear preference towards the group of conventional banks in regard to risk minimization and diversification benefits.