某物流配送中心运输车辆噪声对居民的影响

一些企业在生产过程中排放的噪声级较高,干扰了周围居民的正常生活,导致居民对噪声污染的投诉越来越多。为了明确某企业噪声对周围居民区的影响范围和程度,通过测定某物流配送中心运输车辆及其周边敏感点的噪声值,采用导则推荐的模型,预测了运输车辆对敏感点的等效声级(Leq)和最大A声级(Lmax),从实测和预测2个途径,明确该物流配送中心运输车辆噪声对周围敏感点的影响,分析各敏感点噪声的超标情况。将等效声级预测结果与实测结果相比较,预测结果稍大于实测结果,两者相差1~2dB(A),表明预测结果可信。根据敏感点噪声超标情况,提出了运输车辆噪声控制对策,以减少该物流配送中心车辆噪声对居民的影响。     

“十一五”我国建筑业发展预测模型建立和应用

基于灰色理论建立建筑业的GM(1,1)发展预测模型,对我国建筑业的发展进行预测,并运用多元回归预测模型进行验证比较,两种不同的预测方法得出的结论是一致的,“十一五”期间我国建筑业将继续保持较快增长。     

ARIMA计量技术下河南省农民增收的预测模型研究

笔者根据河南省1978年～2005年的农民人均纯收入统计数据,将这些数据进行平稳化、零均值化处理,并利用时间序列的自相关函数,偏自相关函数的性质,确认数据所适合的模型.通过对样本数据所做的回归拟合模型定量分析,从而为河南省"十一·五"规划提供量化指标依据.     

北部湾盆地油藏开发类比知识库研究及应用

北部湾盆地油藏开发单元多,类型复杂,开发效果差异大,亟待认清该油田群区域开发规律.建立在油藏分类及阶段划分基础上,通过对北部湾区域178个油藏开发单元静、动态多达50多种数据进行统计,建立区域静、动态知识库.在该知识库基础上,采用统计分析方法,得到适用于北部湾盆地不同类型油藏的产能、采收率及分阶段产量预测方法.该成果有效地提高了北部湾盆地油藏开发指标预测精度及效率,为后续油藏的开发调整奠定了基础.     

价值工程在居住小区开发方案中的应用

在用价值工程原理对优化后的居住小区开发方案与原居住小区开发方案进行比较,验证了居住小区开发方案优化模型的正确性。     

The performance of insolvency prediction and credit risk models in the UK: A comparative study

Theoretically-driven, market-based contingent claims models have recently been applied to the field of corporate insolvency prediction in an attempt to provide the art with a theoretical methodology that has been lacking in the past. Limited studies have been carried out in order directly to compare the performance of these models with that of their accounting number-based counterparts. We use receiver operating characteristic curves to assess the efficacy of thirteen selected models using, for the first time, post-IFRS UK data; and investigate the distributional properties of model efficacy. We find that the efficacy of the models is generally less than that reported in the prior literature; but that the contingent claims models outperform models which use accounting numbers. We also obtain the counter-intuitive finding that predictions based on a single variable can be as efficient as those which are based on models which are far more complicated – in terms of variable variety and mathematical construction. Finally, we develop and test a naïve version of the down-and-out-call barrier option model for insolvency prediction and find that, despite its simple formulation, it performs favourably compared alongside other contingent claims models.     

约束稀疏脉冲反演在GX气田开发中的应用研究

GX气田北部地区构造、断层特征较为复杂,地质建模较困难,而约束稀疏脉冲反演是一种基于地震道的反演方法,它是在波阻趋势的约束下,用最少的反射系数脉冲达到合成记录与地震道的最佳匹配。该方法对初始模型依赖性较小,中高频部分不受初始模型的影响,其反演结果能忠于实际地震资料,分辨率与地震资料接近,保真度高。以GX气田为例,通过约束稀疏脉冲反演技术对GX气田开展储层预测,其反演结果与实测井曲线吻合较好,能客观反映地质体在横向上的变化特征,该方法适用于储层横向变化快和非均质性较强的少井区块。     

Predicting Corporate Bankruptcy: An Evaluation of Alternative Statistical Frameworks

Corporate bankruptcy prediction has attracted significant research attention from business academics, regulators and financial economists over the past five decades. However, much of this literature has relied on quite simplistic classifiers such as logistic regression and linear discriminant analysis (LDA). Based on a large sample of US corporate bankruptcies, we examine the predictive performance of 16 classifiers, ranging from the most restrictive classifiers (such as logit, probit and linear discriminant analysis) to more advanced techniques such as neural networks, support vector machines (SVMs) and “new age” statistical learning models including generalised boosting, AdaBoost and random forests. Consistent with the findings of Jones et al. ( 2015 ), we show that quite simple classifiers such as logit and LDA perform reasonably well in bankruptcy prediction. However, we recommend the use of “new age” classifiers in corporate bankruptcy modelling because: (1) they predict significantly better than all other classifiers on both the cross‐sectional and longitudinal test samples; (2) the models may have considerable practical appeal because they are relatively easy to estimate and implement (for instance, they require minimal researcher intervention for data preparation, variable selection and model architecture specification); and (3) while the underlying model structures can be very complex, we demonstrate that “new age” classifiers have a reasonably good level of interpretability through such metrics as relative variable importances (RVIs).     

THE USE OF SOCIAL MEDIA IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN: SURVEY AND EXTENSIONS

This paper investigates the capabilities of social media, such as Facebook, Twitter, Delicious, Digg and others, for their current and potential impact on the supply chain. In particular, this paper examines the use of social media to capture the impact on supply‐chain events and develop a context for those events. This paper also analyses the use of social media in the supply chain to build relationships among supply‐chain participants. Further, this paper investigates the of use of user‐supplied tags as a basis of evaluating and extending an ontology for supply chains. In addition, using knowledge discovery from social media, a number of concepts related to the supply chain are examined, including supply‐chain reputation and influence within the supply chain. Prediction markets are analysed for their potential use in supply chains. Finally, this paper investigates the integration of traditional knowledge management along with knowledge generated from social media. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

减脂、减糖与科学瘦身

科学瘦身不等于不吃,是合理的减掉脂肪和糖类的摄入,同时视个人身体状况循序渐进的增加体育运动,重视运动生热效应,燃烧脂肪,增加能量消耗,还要按照人体生物钟的运行规律优化睡眠,休息好。