RMS5000产品可靠性信息管理系统设计

RMS5000产品可靠性信息管理系统是一套基于产品可靠性设计理念的信息管理系统,该系统从可靠性设计流程标准化、潜在缺陷分析、可靠性应力分析、可靠性测试流程标准化、设计评审审核、经验数据累计等几方面为用户提供了一整套技术有效、管理科学的可靠性技术体系。该系统旨在规范可靠性设计和测试流程、提高可靠性设计效率和产品质量。本文通过图文相结合的方式向用户全面阐述了该系统的设计理念、设计架构、产品开组成以及技术特点。希望能通过本文的介绍,向大家展示一个基于可靠性的产品开发体系模型,给设计人员在产品可靠性设计方面提供更多的帮助。     

Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Prediction Revisited

This paper measures latent fundamental exchange rates with independent component‐based rates constructed from a cross‐section of exchange rates and then uses their deviations from exchange rates to forecast. Empirical results indicate that the independent component‐based model and its Taylor rule and purchasing power parity augmented models are superior to the random walk in predicting exchange rates. These results are robust to several scenarios and are likely to be observed if the U.S. sources and the recursive scheme are applied. Our results reveal that information regarding the third moment of exchange rate changes is helpful to explain exchange rate movements.     

开采急倾斜煤层沉陷预测实例研究

沉陷预测是煤炭项目环境影响评价中最核心内容之一,其准确性直接关系到生态保护措施的有效性及可行性。急倾斜煤层由于采深变化大、顶底板条件不同,且没有实测的移动变形参数,采用常规概率积分法预测沉陷范围可能出现的偏差较大。以贵州省仁怀保利煤矿环评为实例,依据不同开采时段,分别采用深度积分及等价工作面方法预测沉陷范围。采用该方法对急倾斜煤层作沉陷预测更加符合实际,为其他类似矿井对环境影响评价的沉陷预测提供了参考。     

基于BG/NBD模型的电信客户终身价值测度研究

在技术水平不断提升以及产品服务趋于同质化的环境下,我国移动通信企业开始由基础网络建设向专业化的增值业务转型,在激烈的市场竞争中,及时准确的挖掘高价值客户,提供个性化的功能业务,提升客户价值,成为各通信企业获取新竞争优势的有效途径之一。在BG/NBD模型的基础上,通过捕捉客户随机交易行为,构建了客户终身价值测度模型,结合电信运营商的客户数据进行客户终身价值预测研究,结果发现,模型在客户整体层面和个体层面均能有效且准确的预测客户终身价值。     

An Easily Implemented Framework for Forecasting Ticket Sales to Performing Arts Events

This paper presents an easily used framework for modeling ticket sales to performing arts and entertainment events. Unlike existing efforts in this area, our framework allows us to: (1) model demand for events that consist of more than a single performance; (2) account for the influence of promotional effort on ticket sales; and (3) account for sellouts of some performances. The framework is applied to ticket sales for a university theater company, where it predicts ticket sales well in both an estimation and holdout sample. We discuss how the framework has influenced the company's marketing decisions.     

一个与供应链协同的虚拟价值网集成增值矩阵

运用集成原理及系统方法论探讨了虚拟价值网集成的结构机理,从集成意义上构造了一个与供应链协同的增值矩阵,即基于信息共享、知识共享、价值共享的三个平台,虚拟实现与工作流、知识流、价值流协同的供应链上的信息流、财务流和物流增值。同时作出虚拟价值网集成管理的优化树图,为现行供应链管理模式的优化升级提供模拟支持和方法选择。     

煤层瓦斯的赋存因素及涌出量预测

煤矿安全生产的一个重大问题就是矿井瓦斯,瓦斯涌出量的准确预测是煤矿通风系统优化及制定合理瓦斯防治措施的前提条件,禹州市富山煤矿矿井瓦斯随着煤层埋藏深度的增加,瓦斯涌出量将会增大,采区正常生产期间为1个回采工作面、2个煤巷掘进工作面,因此,计算得出生产采区相对瓦斯涌出量为4.43m3/t,绝对瓦斯涌出量为2.77m3/min。     

Excessive Volatility is Also a Feature of Individual Level Forecasts

The excessive volatility of prices in financial markets is one of the most pressing puzzles in social science. It has led many to question economic theory, which attributes beneficial effects to markets in the allocation of risks and the aggregation of information. In exploring its causes, we investigated to what extent excessive volatility can be observed at the individual level. Economists claim that securities prices are forecasts of future outcomes. Here, we report on a simple experiment in which participants were rewarded to make the most accurate possible forecast of a canonical financial time series. We discovered excessive volatility in individual-level forecasts, paralleling the finding at the market level. Assuming that participants updated their beliefs based on reinforcement learning, we show that excess volatility emerged because of a combination of three factors. First, we found that submitted forecasts were noisy perturbations of participants’ revealed beliefs. Second, beliefs were updated using a prediction error based on submitted forecast rather than revealed past beliefs. Third, in updating beliefs, participants maladaptively decreased learning speed with prediction risk. Our results reveal formerly undocumented features in individual-level forecasting that may be critical to understand the inherent instability of financial markets and inform regulatory policy.     

Return prediction and stock selection from unidentified historical data

The experimental approach was applied to test the value of historical return series in technical prediction. Return sequences were randomly drawn cross-sectionally and over time from S&P500 records and participants were asked to predict the 13th realization from 12 preceding returns. The hypothesis that predictions (nominal or real) are randomly assigned to historical sequences is rejected in permutation tests, and the best-stock portfolios by experimental predictions significantly outperform the worst-stock portfolios in joint examination of mean return and volatility. The participants dynamically adjust their predictions to the observed series and switch from momentum riding to contrarian extrapolation when recent trends get extreme. The implicit tuning of predictions to specific series captures variabilities that could not be inferred by schematic statistical forecasting.     

内蒙古经济发展与工业污染关系的动态分析

本文结合内蒙古区情,对内蒙古经济发展和环境污染关系进行动态分析。首先,根据研究目的进行指标的选取。其次,构造经济发展综合指数,利用灰色预测模型对经济发展综合指数进行两期预测,进一步说明内蒙古经济发展情况。再次,运用单位根检验得出序列一阶差分后均平稳,属于同阶单整序列,满足协整检验的条件,由协整检验得出工业三废增速和经济增长率存在长期协整关系,通过用差分后的数据建立VAR模型进行脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析,得出经济发展和工业环境污染的双向作用机制：经济增长率与工业三废排放量增速互相有不同程度的正向冲击,工业三废之间作为有机整体互相影响从而加速工业环境的恶化。最后结合分析结果提出走新型工业化道路的对策。