试论营销策略中的期权因素

营销策略由产品、价格、地点和促销构成,产品由核心产品、有形产品和附加产品组成。附加产 品在产品构成中的作用越来越重要,附加产品的性质类似于期权。通过附加产品,企业和消费者之间存 在着契约关系,可以利用期权的分析方法对附加产品进行分析,并利用期权定价模型对其进行定价。     

Machine learning for pricing American options in high-dimensional Markovian and non-Markovian models

In this paper we propose two efficient techniques which allow one to compute the price of American basket options. In particular, we consider a basket of assets that follow a multi-dimensional Black–Scholes dynamics. The proposed techniques, called GPR Tree (GRP-Tree) and GPR Exact Integration (GPR-EI), are both based on Machine Learning, exploited together with binomial trees or with a closed form formula for integration. Moreover, these two methods solve the backward dynamic programing problem considering a Bermudan approximation of the American option. On the exercise dates, the value of the option is first computed as the maximum between the exercise value and the continuation value and then approximated by means of Gaussian Process Regression. The two methods mainly differ in the approach used to compute the continuation value: a single step of the binomial tree or integration according to the probability density of the process. Numerical results show that these two methods are accurate and reliable in handling American options on very large baskets of assets. Moreover we also consider the rough Bergomi model, which provides stochastic volatility with memory. Despite that this model is only bidimensional, the whole history of the process impacts on the price, and how to handle all this information is not obvious at all. To this aim, we present how to adapt the GPR-Tree and GPR-EI methods and we focus on pricing American options in this non-Markovian framework.     

Real call options to enlarge foreign subsidiaries – The moderating effect of irreversibility on the influence of economic volatility and political instability on subsequent FDI

This paper develops a real option model to explain the decision of enlarging a new foreign subsidiary by subsequent investment. The model is tested on a panel of 1148 subsidiaries in 22 host countries. The findings complement the traditional process model of firm internationalization. Rather than abiding by an incremental pattern of investment, internationalizing firms seem to keep foreign investment strategies flexible and build up their subsidiaries contingent upon the interaction of economic volatility and irreversibility of investment. However, the moderating effect of irreversibility on the relationship between uncertainty and investment may not hold for downside risks such as political instability.     

一个实物期权例子求解方法的辨析

对注会教材《财务成本管理》关于时机选择期权例子中计算报酬率方法的错误进行了讨论,指出了应该采用的正确方法,并对该例进行了重新计算与分析。     

中国企业股票期权行权期限问题研究

行权期限作为股票期权激励机制的基本要素之一,是影响股票期权激励机制发挥作用的关键。股票期权行权期限在中国实际应用中存在法律法规不规范,证券市场不健全,职业经理人市场不完善及公司治理结构、生命周期不成熟等问题。因此,应加大研究力度,提高调研人员素质,规范法律法规,完善公司治理结构,建立健全市场体系,以实现合理的股票期权行权期限确定机制。     

风险与收益权衡的期权组合策略

本文对Papahristodoulou的风险中性模型进行了推广,提出了在希腊字母上具有可控制风险界的线性规划模型来确定最佳期权组合策略。在此模型中,风险界可以由投资者根据自己的个性和对市场风险的接受能力选择,然后通过风险与收益的权衡来进行调整。最后,应用本文的模型对爱立信看涨权和看跌权的组合策略进行了分析计算。     

基于实物期权的表外项目计量初探

表外项目由于本身的不确定性,未能形成会计计量意义上的自然形态,相应在财务信息中也就得不到准确披露,以致成为企业财务反映的真空.实物期权是金融期权理论对实物(非金融)资产期权的延伸.实物期权理论的出现为表外项目计量提供了有力工具.文章通过实物期权理论对通常表外项目计量的思路进行了说明.     

房地产估价的实物期权方法研究

目前我国房地产估价理论与方法仍处在探索阶段,房地产估价需要多元化拓展。该文通过理论研究和实例分析,研究了基于实物期权的房地产估价方法,它比现行的房地产投估价更加科学有效,并具有较强的可操作性。     

湖南省耕地变化的趋势及其政策选择

经济社会发展加快了土地利用,造成耕地资源的进一步减少,要实现经济、社会协调发展,就必须了解耕地的变化和利用状况。文章应用相关分析方法对湖南省总人口、房地产投资、城市化水平、国民生产总值指数进行分析,结果表明它们与湖南省年末实有耕地面积变化具有很大的相关性;同时又应用多元线性回归方法定量分析了湖南经济社会发展对耕地利用数量的变化状况,并根据模型预测了2010—2030年湖南省年末实有耕地面积的变化。在此基础上,提出了保护耕地的政策选择是控制人口增长、适时加快城市化进程、调整土地利用结构、提高土地效应、提高农业用地效益等。     

无居民海岛实物期权估价模式研究

我国无居民海岛的市场进程刚刚起步,海岛价值评估方法没有统一、规范的制度或标准性规定。本文根据无居民海岛使用权价值的期权特征,应用实物期权理论,估算海岛的期权价值,以突破原有传统估价方法在海岛市场化交易初期阶段无法适用的瓶颈。研究结果显示,分别运用布莱克—舒尔斯模型和二项树模型估算的海岛价值基本一致,相比而言,二项树模型能够反映各个时间节点的参数变化,更加直观和灵活。研究结论说明实物期权估价方法适用于无居民海岛使用权估价,估价结果能够全面反映现金流时间价值、未来不确定性以及柔性决策权共同创造的海岛整体价值,为无居民海岛价值评估提供了新思路。